Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Google boss says AI investment boom has 'elements of irrationality'

bbc.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

41–50 of 752 posts

Re: Google boss says AI investment boom has 'elements of irrationality'

#41

Post by aurareturn »

StopDisinfo910 wrote: post #17
aurareturn wrote: post #4

Is it really a bubble about to burst when literally everyone is talking about AI being in a bubble and maybe bursting soon? To me, we're clearly not peak AI exuberance. AI agents are just getting started and getting so freaking good. Just the other day, I used Vercel's v0 to build a small business website for a relative in 10 minutes. It looked fantastic and very mobile friendly. I fed the website to ChatGPT5.1 and a…

I think you are missing the fundamental point here. The question is not really if AI has some value. That much is obvious and the exemple you give, increasing developer productivity, is a good one. The question is: is the value generated by AI aligned with the market projected value as currently priced in AI companies valuation? That's what's more difficult to assess. The gap between fundamental financial data and va…

  The question is: is the value generated by AI aligned with the market projected value as currently priced in AI companies valuation? That's what's more difficult to assess.
I agree it is difficult to assess. Right now, competitive pressure is causing big players to go all in or get left behind.

That said, I don't think the bubble is done growing nor do I think it is about to burst.

I personally think we are in 1995 of the dotcom bubble equivalent. When it bursts, it will still be much bigger than in November 2025.

Re: Google boss says AI investment boom has 'elements of irrationality'

#42

Post by belter »

nabla9 wrote: post #22

Google, Meta, Microsoft, and Amazon will get through easily. They don't have excessive debt. They can afford to lose their investments into AI. Their valuations will take a hit. Nvidia will lose revenue and profits, stock will go down by 60% or more, but it will also survive. Oracle will likely fail. It funded its AI pivot with debt. The Debt-to-Revenue ratio is 1.77, the Debt-to-Equity ratio D/E is 520, and it has a…

You will be able to rent a whole Meta datacenter with thousands of NVIDIA B200 for $5/hour. AWS will become unprofitable due to abundance of capacity...

Re: Google boss says AI investment boom has 'elements of irrationality'

#43

Post by franktankbank »

TrackerFF wrote: post #19

Sounds like "We're too big to fail. If we go down, everyone goes down. It is your choice." But unlike 08 crisis, we're getting a heads up to bring out the lube.

I hope it goes down. Its really not a very powerful threat.

Re: Google boss says AI investment boom has 'elements of irrationality'

#44

Post by nabla9 »

aurareturn wrote: post #38
nabla9 wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

OpenAI has no technical moat (others can do what they do), generate content, all have the same data. OpenAI does not expect to be cash-flow positive until 2029. When no new capital comes in, it can't continue. OpenAI can's survive any kind of price competition.

They consistently have the best or second best models. They have infrastructure that serves 800 million monthly active users. Investors are lining up to give them money. When they IPO, they'll easily be worth over $1 trillion. There's price competition right now. They're still surviving. If there is price competition, they're the most likely to survive.

> Investors are lining up to give them money. When they IPO, they'll easily be worth over $1 trillion.

Your premise is that there is no bubble. We are talking about what happens when bubble bursts. Without investor money drying out there is no bubble.

Re: Google boss says AI investment boom has 'elements of irrationality'

#45

Post by aurareturn »

nabla9 wrote: post #44
aurareturn wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They consistently have the best or second best models. They have infrastructure that serves 800 million monthly active users. Investors are lining up to give them money. When they IPO, they'll easily be worth over $1 trillion. There's price competition right now. They're still surviving. If there is price competition, they're the most likely to survive.

> Investors are lining up to give them money. When they IPO, they'll easily be worth over $1 trillion. Your premise is that there is no bubble. We are talking about what happens when bubble bursts. Without investor money drying out there is no bubble.

I think we are in 1995 of the dotcom bubble for AI.

Re: Google boss says AI investment boom has 'elements of irrationality'

#46

Post by j_w »

aurareturn wrote: post #31
nabla9 wrote: post #22

Google, Meta, Microsoft, and Amazon will get through easily. They don't have excessive debt. They can afford to lose their investments into AI. Their valuations will take a hit. Nvidia will lose revenue and profits, stock will go down by 60% or more, but it will also survive. Oracle will likely fail. It funded its AI pivot with debt. The Debt-to-Revenue ratio is 1.77, the Debt-to-Equity ratio D/E is 520, and it has a…

OpenAI, Anthropic, and others will be bought for cents on the dollar. OpenAI is existential threat to all big tech including Meta, Google, Microsoft, Apple. Hence, they're all spending lavishly right now to not get left behind. Meta --> GenAI Content creation can disrupt Instagram. ChatGPT likely has more data on a person than Instagram does by now for ads. 800 million daily active users for ChatGPT already. Google -…

> Apple --> OpenAI can make a device that runs ChatGPT as the OS instead of relying on iOS.

Yeah... No they can't. I don't agree with any of your "disruptions," but this one is just comically incorrect. There was a post on HN somewhat recently that was a simulated computer using LLMs, and it was unusable.

Re: Google boss says AI investment boom has 'elements of irrationality'

#47

Post by aurareturn »

checker659 wrote: post #37
aurareturn wrote: post #4

Is it really a bubble about to burst when literally everyone is talking about AI being in a bubble and maybe bursting soon? To me, we're clearly not peak AI exuberance. AI agents are just getting started and getting so freaking good. Just the other day, I used Vercel's v0 to build a small business website for a relative in 10 minutes. It looked fantastic and very mobile friendly. I fed the website to ChatGPT5.1 and a…

The economics of it is what's the problem, not the power of LLMs.

So tell us the economics of it?

The vast majority of AI doomers in the mass media have never used tools like v0 or Cursor. How would they know that AI is overvalued?

Re: Google boss says AI investment boom has 'elements of irrationality'

#49

Post by lesuorac »

> He told the BBC that the company owns what he called a “full stack” of technologies, from chips to YouTube data to models and frontier science research. This integrated approach, he suggested, would help the company weather any market turbulence better than competitors.

I guess but is it better for an investor to own 2 shares of Google or 1 share of OpenAI and 1 share of TSMC?

Like I have no doubt that being vertically integrated as a single company has lot of benefits but one can also create a trust that invests vertically as well.

Post reply on HN