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Oracle hit hard in Wall Street's tech sell-off over its AI bet

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Re: Oracle hit hard in Wall Street's tech sell-off over its AI bet

#61

Post by hackernewds »

reactordev wrote: post #24
neom wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, and then the Canadian government handed hundreds of millions to the kids at Cohere who have now gone spent it on Coreweave. When it was all announced I was very very vocal that using an inexperienced startup for the sovereign compute capabilities seemed a very poor choice. I'm so curious to see how this all plays out.

I think we know how it plays out. In a couple of years, someone is going to have to swoop in and save CoreWeave’s customers and consultants will be lined up for that “transformation”.

are you suggesting bailouts for the AI data centers are the new too big to fail

Re: Oracle hit hard in Wall Street's tech sell-off over its AI bet

#62

Post by htrp »

helloooooooo wrote: post #27
neom wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, and then the Canadian government handed hundreds of millions to the kids at Cohere who have now gone spent it on Coreweave. When it was all announced I was very very vocal that using an inexperienced startup for the sovereign compute capabilities seemed a very poor choice. I'm so curious to see how this all plays out.

Cohere is doing a lot of enterprise AI business, and a lot of business directly with the federal government. They are also not juiced up in these financial games that OpenAI or Oracle are playing. Additionally, Cohere is no less “kids” than Anthropic or OpenAI. Aidan was literally one of the co-authors of “Attention is all you need”.

aidan was an intern on AIAYN

>While an intern at Google Brain, Aidan Gomez co-authored the paper "Attention Is All You Need" with other researchers.

Re: Oracle hit hard in Wall Street's tech sell-off over its AI bet

#63

Post by georgemcbay »

JCM9 wrote: post #3

I’m bullish on AI as tech but folks are starting to sniff out that the financials of everything going on at the moment aren’t sustainable for much longer. I hope we have more of a “reality correction” than full blown bubble bursting, but the data is increasingly looking like we’re about to have a massive implosion that wipes out a generation of startups and sets the VC ecosystem back a decade.

> I’m bullish on AI as tech

I'm not bullish in the stock market sense.

Which isn't the same as saying LLMs and related technology aren't useful... they are.

But as you mentioned the financials don't make sense today, and even worse than that, I'm not sure how they could get the financials to make sense because no player in the space on the software side has a real moat to speak of, and I don't believe its possible to make one.

People have preferences over which LLM does better at job $XYZ, but I don't think the differences would stand up to large price changes. LLM A might feel like its a bit better of a coding model than LLM B, but if LLM A suddenly cost 2x-3x, most people are going to jump to LLM B.

If they manage to price fix and all jump in price, I think the amount of people using them would drop off a cliff.

And I see the ultimate end result years from now (when the corporate LLM providers might, in a normal market, finally start benefiting from a cross section of economies of scale and their own optimizations) being that most people will be able to get by using local models for "free" (sans some relatively small buy-in cost, and whatever electricity they use).

Re: Oracle hit hard in Wall Street's tech sell-off over its AI bet

#64

Post by re-thc »

dmoy wrote: post #2

So debt financing (Oracle) vs fund-it-more-on-your-own (other big tech?) vs fund-it-with-equity (startups?)... I guess that makes some kind of sense? Oracle raises 4x the debt of e.g. Google?

> I guess that makes some kind of sense? Oracle raises 4x the debt of e.g. Google?

The problem is why is Oracle raising this debt? It's to do the buildout for OpenAI. So Oracle buys GPUs from Nvidia. Nvidia invests in OpenAI. OpenAI then pays Oracle for the GPUs.

i.e. we're going around in circles.

Re: Oracle hit hard in Wall Street's tech sell-off over its AI bet

#65

Post by lateforwork »

pm90 wrote: post #55
jlarocco wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

On the other hand, if Oracle can't squeeze a profit out of AI, I'm skeptical anybody else can.

How do you mean? Have they succeeded at squeezing any profit out of anything thats not Oracle DB?

Fusion ERP and NetSuite.

Re: Oracle hit hard in Wall Street's tech sell-off over its AI bet

#66

Post by zkmon »

lambersley wrote: post #32

Oracle was late to Cloud and now late to AI. Maybe it's time Larry let someone else take the helm.

It's not about being late. They don't need to get into those. Companies should stick to their identity once they settled somewhere, instead of becoming color-changing chameleon. Database is still very relevant tech and they missed a whole lot in that domain. Infact, if anything, world is even more dependent now on data and databases. Why did Oracle not rule this kingdom?

Re: Oracle hit hard in Wall Street's tech sell-off over its AI bet

#67

Post by underlipton »

tru3_power wrote: post #49
underlipton wrote: post #43

It's just returning to relative sanity. Go look at a 6-month chart. Of course, it's mostly risen with the SP500 tide. The mid-September jump was some sort of mechanical move caused by things deep in the market (and outside it) that you're not allowed to know about. Someone needed collateral. I don't think Oracle's stock price has anything to do with AI. That's just the public narrative.

Can you elaborate on the mechanical point you mentioned? And by someone needed collateral, does that mean whoever it was bought ORCL at that time to hold as collateral? How do you even figure that out?

>Can you elaborate on the mechanical point you mentioned?

Not really, because I don't really understand the specifics myself. I guess it's a situation where you either believe the conspiracy theories or you don't. I've still yet to have someone explain how a company like Oracle could jump 40% in a day and it not be either Dot Com Bust-level speculation, or else someone holding Oracle needing the company to be at a certain valuation. Things happened the day before the jump, and a week after it, Oracle was signing a deal to integrate with TikTok.

Re: Oracle hit hard in Wall Street's tech sell-off over its AI bet

#68

Post by skeeter2020 »

pm90 wrote: post #55
jlarocco wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

On the other hand, if Oracle can't squeeze a profit out of AI, I'm skeptical anybody else can.

How do you mean? Have they succeeded at squeezing any profit out of anything thats not Oracle DB?

profit may be TBD, but they squeeze revenues out of everything and squeeze cost centers to oblivion

Re: Oracle hit hard in Wall Street's tech sell-off over its AI bet

#70

Post by jlarocco »

pm90 wrote: post #55
jlarocco wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

On the other hand, if Oracle can't squeeze a profit out of AI, I'm skeptical anybody else can.

How do you mean? Have they succeeded at squeezing any profit out of anything thats not Oracle DB?

I meant they've always had a reputation for being ruthless business people. Charging license fees based on the amount of memory in the host machine instead of the VM running Oracle, and things like that. They nickle and dime everything.

https://investor.oracle.com/investor-news/news-details/2025/...

They don't break it out into products in the results, but it looks like hardware, software, cloud, and support were all profitable.

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