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Oracle hit hard in Wall Street's tech sell-off over its AI bet

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Re: Oracle hit hard in Wall Street's tech sell-off over its AI bet

#41

Post by mjr00 »

bobbiechen wrote: post #38
mjr00 wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The most sobering statistic I've seen is that the entire combined amount of consumer spending on AI products is currently less than the revenue of Genshin Impact.

Indeed, bad for consumer AI. But I would expect B2B spending on AI dwarfs consumer spending, I wonder what that comparable B2B revenue would be.

It certainly does but B2B revenue can also be much more "fake", in a sense. i.e. if Microsoft spends $500 million on OpenAI, which makes OpenAI spends $500 million on Azure... where does the profit come from? There have been a few interesting articles (which I unfortunately can't look up right now) recently describing how incestuous a lot of the B2B AI spend is, which is reminiscent of the dot-com bubble.

Re: Oracle hit hard in Wall Street's tech sell-off over its AI bet

#43

Post by underlipton »

It's just returning to relative sanity. Go look at a 6-month chart. Of course, it's mostly risen with the SP500 tide. The mid-September jump was some sort of mechanical move caused by things deep in the market (and outside it) that you're not allowed to know about. Someone needed collateral.

I don't think Oracle's stock price has anything to do with AI. That's just the public narrative.

Re: Oracle hit hard in Wall Street's tech sell-off over its AI bet

#44

Post by wbl »

neom wrote: post #33
helloooooooo wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Cohere is doing a lot of enterprise AI business, and a lot of business directly with the federal government. They are also not juiced up in these financial games that OpenAI or Oracle are playing. Additionally, Cohere is no less “kids” than Anthropic or OpenAI. Aidan was literally one of the co-authors of “Attention is all you need”.

No doubt some amazing engineer's work there, but there are little to no adults in the room at that business as far as I can see, and sure they like to tweet about how well they are doing, and I keep hearing this line that they're selling to enterprise, uh, who, Canadian tire? If they actually have more than $150mm in revenue I'd be amazed, and $150mm revenue is still, not at all impressive. https://www. theinformatio…

$150 mm with a gross margin of 80% and low capital is great. $150 mm when you spent a few billion not so much.

Re: Oracle hit hard in Wall Street's tech sell-off over its AI bet

#45

Post by tru3_power »

dmoy wrote: post #2

So debt financing (Oracle) vs fund-it-more-on-your-own (other big tech?) vs fund-it-with-equity (startups?)... I guess that makes some kind of sense? Oracle raises 4x the debt of e.g. Google?

When you say debt financing (Oracle) does that mean Oracle is actually financing the loans to these other companies? Sorry if I'm misunderstanding.

Re: Oracle hit hard in Wall Street's tech sell-off over its AI bet

#46

Post by aworks »

softwaredoug wrote: post #31
next_xibalba wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why do we care if his son buys WB? Better if Disney buys it?

Largely because Warner Brothers is a good movie studio buried in a terrible corporation. It’d be sad to see it go away. WB going away or shrinking likely reduces Hollywoods movie output, consolidates the industry, makes it less competitive and reduces opportunity for talent. In a different world WB the studio is a successful standalone company not burdened with debt due to Zaslovs idiotic bets. (And Ellisons overpayi…

e.g. Turner Classic Movies channel

Re: Oracle hit hard in Wall Street's tech sell-off over its AI bet

#47

Post by ryandv »

helloooooooo wrote: post #27
neom wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, and then the Canadian government handed hundreds of millions to the kids at Cohere who have now gone spent it on Coreweave. When it was all announced I was very very vocal that using an inexperienced startup for the sovereign compute capabilities seemed a very poor choice. I'm so curious to see how this all plays out.

Cohere is doing a lot of enterprise AI business, and a lot of business directly with the federal government. They are also not juiced up in these financial games that OpenAI or Oracle are playing. Additionally, Cohere is no less “kids” than Anthropic or OpenAI. Aidan was literally one of the co-authors of “Attention is all you need”.

I thought they were still hiring bootcamp graduates.

Re: Oracle hit hard in Wall Street's tech sell-off over its AI bet

#48

Post by fullshark »

mjr00 wrote: post #36
JCM9 wrote: post #3

I’m bullish on AI as tech but folks are starting to sniff out that the financials of everything going on at the moment aren’t sustainable for much longer. I hope we have more of a “reality correction” than full blown bubble bursting, but the data is increasingly looking like we’re about to have a massive implosion that wipes out a generation of startups and sets the VC ecosystem back a decade.

The most sobering statistic I've seen is that the entire combined amount of consumer spending on AI products is currently less than the revenue of Genshin Impact.

AI's consumer monetization will be ad-based or as a feature for a product users want to pay for. Businesses will be the primary customer for AI.

Re: Oracle hit hard in Wall Street's tech sell-off over its AI bet

#49

Post by tru3_power »

underlipton wrote: post #43

It's just returning to relative sanity. Go look at a 6-month chart. Of course, it's mostly risen with the SP500 tide. The mid-September jump was some sort of mechanical move caused by things deep in the market (and outside it) that you're not allowed to know about. Someone needed collateral. I don't think Oracle's stock price has anything to do with AI. That's just the public narrative.

Can you elaborate on the mechanical point you mentioned? And by someone needed collateral, does that mean whoever it was bought ORCL at that time to hold as collateral? How do you even figure that out?

Re: Oracle hit hard in Wall Street's tech sell-off over its AI bet

#50

Post by underlipton »

mjr00 wrote: post #36
JCM9 wrote: post #3

I’m bullish on AI as tech but folks are starting to sniff out that the financials of everything going on at the moment aren’t sustainable for much longer. I hope we have more of a “reality correction” than full blown bubble bursting, but the data is increasingly looking like we’re about to have a massive implosion that wipes out a generation of startups and sets the VC ecosystem back a decade.

The most sobering statistic I've seen is that the entire combined amount of consumer spending on AI products is currently less than the revenue of Genshin Impact.

I would be curious to see how it compares to the combined revenue of gay furry gacha games and VNs. Are we talking parity, multiples, or orders of magnitude? Anything other than the latter would be a bucket of cold water.
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