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Is AI a Bubble? I Didn't Think So Until I Heard of SDD

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Re: Is AI a Bubble? I Didn't Think So Until I Heard of SDD

#51

Post by Terr_ »

Our_Benefactors wrote: post #44
Terr_ wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I suggest checking the HN submission before giving up. > Most alarmingly, the METR study found experienced developers took 19% longer with AI tools, despite believing they’d sped up by 20%.

Did you read the article? > We do not provide evidence that: AI systems do not currently speed up many or most software developers

> many or most

You act like that's a "gotcha" instead of a normal thing. All they mean by that [0] is that can't mathematically prove their developers/tasks/tool are representative for of the majority of worldwide developers/tasks/tools.

You're demanding an unreasonable level of investment for anyone to "prove a negative."

The burden of proof lies on the people claiming zillion-fold boosts in productivity across "enough" places that they don't really define. This is especially true because they could profit in the process, as opposed to other people burning money to prove a point.

[0] https://metr.org/blog/2025-07-10-early-2025-ai-experienced-o...

Re: Is AI a Bubble? I Didn't Think So Until I Heard of SDD

#52

Post by bandrami »

CamperBob2 wrote: post #47
bandrami wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Did you read the article? It cites the METR study[1] which showed that while people using AI tools to program report feeling like they are producing more, they are in fact producing about 20% less than without the tools. Ironically you could get the same effect and save compute fees by simply having programmers stay home one day a week. [1] https://metr.org/blog/2025-07-10-early-2025-ai-experienced-o...

That study is straight out of the school that measures productivity in kLOC. Completely worthless except as fuel for Internet arguments and poorly-informed policymaking.

OK, should be easy to find a better study then, right?

Re: Is AI a Bubble? I Didn't Think So Until I Heard of SDD

#53

Post by bandrami »

Our_Benefactors wrote: post #43
bandrami wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Did you read the article? It cites the METR study[1] which showed that while people using AI tools to program report feeling like they are producing more, they are in fact producing about 20% less than without the tools. Ironically you could get the same effect and save compute fees by simply having programmers stay home one day a week. [1] https://metr.org/blog/2025-07-10-early-2025-ai-experienced-o...

Did you read the article? > We do not provide evidence that: AI systems do not currently speed up many or most software developers

Correct, it only shows that AI slows down experienced developers, which is who the thread is about.

Re: Is AI a Bubble? I Didn't Think So Until I Heard of SDD

#54

Post by bandrami »

Our_Benefactors wrote: post #45
bandrami wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Literally in the article posted

Did you read the article? > We do not provide evidence that: AI systems do not currently speed up many or most software developers

Correct, the study showed that it slows down experienced developers. We don't know what it does to inexperienced developers so that sounds like a good research topic. But it still leads to the question of why experienced developers should be told to adopt it, given that it slows them down.

Re: Is AI a Bubble? I Didn't Think So Until I Heard of SDD

#55

Post by flashgordon »

atomicnumber3 wrote: post #21
SubiculumCode wrote: post #18

Look, maybe AI for professional programming is overhyped, but for the huge number of professionals who need to program as a part of their job, but programming is decidedly NOT their job, but who do not have programmers available to them, LLM's are.monunmental. For these people, these LLMs are huge productivity enhancers. We shouldn't be measuring productivity gain by professional programmers, but by the larger popula…

The thing is, the main reason the hype for software engineers is because they're the main cost of extremely lucrative SAAS companies. If you could do software without the engineers, that's basically just a VC's wet dream of extremely low cost of revenue. On top of very low marginal costs, typically 0 delivery costs (compared to shipping), often unencumbered by things like tariffs. So like, 2-10xing the productivity o…

Except now you have over supply (assuming it is really that fullfiling). Even with steady demand basic economics says it will just prices down. So where are thr vcs making their returns?

Re: Is AI a Bubble? I Didn't Think So Until I Heard of SDD

#56

Post by CamperBob2 »

bandrami wrote: post #52
CamperBob2 wrote: post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That study is straight out of the school that measures productivity in kLOC. Completely worthless except as fuel for Internet arguments and poorly-informed policymaking.

OK, should be easy to find a better study then, right?

Not my job. Ask your friendly neighborhood LLM, maybe.

Re: Is AI a Bubble? I Didn't Think So Until I Heard of SDD

#57

Post by bandrami »

CamperBob2 wrote: post #56
bandrami wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

OK, should be easy to find a better study then, right?

Not my job. Ask your friendly neighborhood LLM, maybe.

If I wanted advice from someone who was confidently wrong I would talk to a project manager
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