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Is AI a Bubble? I Didn't Think So Until I Heard of SDD

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Re: Is AI a Bubble? I Didn't Think So Until I Heard of SDD

#41

Post by techblueberry »

soco wrote: post #40
sixtyj wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Differences in LLM usage are common, so I guess we'll just "argue" here :) Yesterday I was discussing with the head of a company that has been developing software for 30 years, and he told me that they had some old assembly code left, the original programmer retired years ago, so they converted the code with the help of LLM... I use LLM to create scripts for various manipulations and data extraction from documents, o…

The question is, will the vibe coder care at all about those bugs? Will the company using vibe coded apps care about those bugs? Or they will just add another requirement to the prompt and churn out the next version? Yes, they will never have a guarantee this new version will be better, but arguably most software products don't have such guarantees either. So are we users worse off or the same? Because if we're about…

Yes, they care, and as a result more and more companies are not trying.

Re: Is AI a Bubble? I Didn't Think So Until I Heard of SDD

#42

Post by Yizahi »

SubiculumCode wrote: post #18

Look, maybe AI for professional programming is overhyped, but for the huge number of professionals who need to program as a part of their job, but programming is decidedly NOT their job, but who do not have programmers available to them, LLM's are.monunmental. For these people, these LLMs are huge productivity enhancers. We shouldn't be measuring productivity gain by professional programmers, but by the larger popula…

Look, maybe low-code for professional programming is overhyped, but for the huge number of professionals who need to program as a part of their job, but programming is decidedly NOT their job, but who do not have programmers available to them, low-code is monumental. For these people, these low-code systems are huge productivity enhancers. We shouldn't be measuring productivity gain by professional programmers, but by the larger population of professionals who are required to wear many different hats.

Meanwhile my company has finally shut down last low code instance this year, after 10 years of struggling with maintaining a mountain of unmanageable slow-ass code, all the while paying through the nose for the licenses. Spoiler alert - literally zero non-programmers in my company have ever constructed even a single low-code "thing", as was advertised initially. Every person who worked with it was a programmer or QA who could program (aka SDET) and they simply had to suffer with all the limitations of low code platform while gaining none of the supposed benefits.

I suspect it will end up this way with LLM generated code. At most managers would generate some non-operational prototype of some app and then throw it to the dev team who will have to spend time deconstructing it and then rewriting from scratch (with or without LLM assistance).

Re: Is AI a Bubble? I Didn't Think So Until I Heard of SDD

#43

Post by Our_Benefactors »

bandrami wrote: post #37
Our_Benefactors wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Have you used it? It should be, and does.

Did you read the article? It cites the METR study[1] which showed that while people using AI tools to program report feeling like they are producing more, they are in fact producing about 20% less than without the tools. Ironically you could get the same effect and save compute fees by simply having programmers stay home one day a week. [1] https://metr.org/blog/2025-07-10-early-2025-ai-experienced-o...

Did you read the article?

> We do not provide evidence that: AI systems do not currently speed up many or most software developers

Re: Is AI a Bubble? I Didn't Think So Until I Heard of SDD

#44

Post by Our_Benefactors »

Terr_ wrote: post #35
Our_Benefactors wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Please provide supporting evidence of this wild claim.

I suggest checking the HN submission before giving up. > Most alarmingly, the METR study found experienced developers took 19% longer with AI tools, despite believing they’d sped up by 20%.

Did you read the article?

> We do not provide evidence that: AI systems do not currently speed up many or most software developers

Re: Is AI a Bubble? I Didn't Think So Until I Heard of SDD

#45

Post by Our_Benefactors »

bandrami wrote: post #36
Our_Benefactors wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Please provide supporting evidence of this wild claim.

Literally in the article posted

Did you read the article?

> We do not provide evidence that: AI systems do not currently speed up many or most software developers

Re: Is AI a Bubble? I Didn't Think So Until I Heard of SDD

#46

Post by pyeri »

SubiculumCode wrote: post #18

Look, maybe AI for professional programming is overhyped, but for the huge number of professionals who need to program as a part of their job, but programming is decidedly NOT their job, but who do not have programmers available to them, LLM's are.monunmental. For these people, these LLMs are huge productivity enhancers. We shouldn't be measuring productivity gain by professional programmers, but by the larger popula…

Learning coding is easier than ever today, it's no longer the domain of few elite nerds sitting behind desks in large offices. It takes less than two days to learn python from free online resources like Youtube and SoloLearn; surely a small price to pay compared to lifetime of limping with LLM crutches?

Re: Is AI a Bubble? I Didn't Think So Until I Heard of SDD

#47

Post by CamperBob2 »

bandrami wrote: post #37
Our_Benefactors wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Have you used it? It should be, and does.

Did you read the article? It cites the METR study[1] which showed that while people using AI tools to program report feeling like they are producing more, they are in fact producing about 20% less than without the tools. Ironically you could get the same effect and save compute fees by simply having programmers stay home one day a week. [1] https://metr.org/blog/2025-07-10-early-2025-ai-experienced-o...

That study is straight out of the school that measures productivity in kLOC. Completely worthless except as fuel for Internet arguments and poorly-informed policymaking.

Re: Is AI a Bubble? I Didn't Think So Until I Heard of SDD

#48

Post by soupfordummies »

pyeri wrote: post #46
SubiculumCode wrote: post #18

Look, maybe AI for professional programming is overhyped, but for the huge number of professionals who need to program as a part of their job, but programming is decidedly NOT their job, but who do not have programmers available to them, LLM's are.monunmental. For these people, these LLMs are huge productivity enhancers. We shouldn't be measuring productivity gain by professional programmers, but by the larger popula…

Learning coding is easier than ever today, it's no longer the domain of few elite nerds sitting behind desks in large offices. It takes less than two days to learn python from free online resources like Youtube and SoloLearn; surely a small price to pay compared to lifetime of limping with LLM crutches?

While I agree with the sentiment that tech workers should know how to code at least a bit, I think "2 days" is quite a bit of an exaggeration unless someone already has a lot of prerequisite knowledge.

Re: Is AI a Bubble? I Didn't Think So Until I Heard of SDD

#49

Post by Terr_ »

000ooo000 wrote: post #39
bandrami wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Literally in the article posted

If you want to shit talk LLMs, you better come armed with research, buddy. Claims about how it will revolutionise every profession just need n=1 anecdata though.

Historical comparison: "I just had a pizza delivered on the new Segway and it was super duper cool because they came right into the conference center, so say goodbye to cars and bikes, by 2025 it's all going to be Personal People Movers!"

That said, I think LLMs will have a bigger effect than a self-balancing scooter, both positively and negatively.

Re: Is AI a Bubble? I Didn't Think So Until I Heard of SDD

#50

Post by [deleted] »

Our_Benefactors wrote: post #44
Terr_ wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I suggest checking the HN submission before giving up. > Most alarmingly, the METR study found experienced developers took 19% longer with AI tools, despite believing they’d sped up by 20%.

Did you read the article? > We do not provide evidence that: AI systems do not currently speed up many or most software developers

[deleted]
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