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Is Sora the beginning of the end for OpenAI?

calnewport.com

171–180 of 207 posts

Re: Is Sora the beginning of the end for OpenAI?

#171

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, but, overwhelmingly we go where we look. Usually what is meaningful and worthwhile is hard. Also we get better at hard things when we practice doing them. There is a concept in racing when taking a corner to "keep your eyes off the wall", and instead look where you want the car to go. Imo the most scary part of the problems we face isn't what you or GP are talking about, it's everyone else's reactions to them. T…

Well, sure—and I am, in general, a very positive person. But there's a huge difference between (a) "given that this thing exists that seems very bad, can you imagine a way to a better future?" and (b) "can you imagine ways that this thing that seems very bad could actually be very good?" The ways to a better future are in spite of these developments, not because of them, and I don't think it's at all helpful to act l…

When I read your comment the first time I felt uneasy about your (a) vs (b) framing, but didn't know how to address it head on. A while later I remembered this story told by Alan Watts. It seems relevant...

The Chinese Farmer Story

Once upon a time there was a Chinese farmer whose horse ran away. That evening, all of his neighbors came around to commiserate. They said, “We are so sorry to hear your horse has run away. This is most unfortunate.” The farmer said, “Maybe.”

The next day the horse came back bringing seven wild horses with it, and in the evening everybody came back and said, “Oh, isn’t that lucky. What a great turn of events. You now have eight horses!” The farmer again said, “Maybe.”

The following day his son tried to break one of the horses, and while riding it, he was thrown and broke his leg. The neighbors then said, “Oh dear, that’s too bad,” and the farmer responded, “Maybe.”

The next day the conscription officers came around to conscript people into the army, and they rejected his son because he had a broken leg. Again all the neighbors came around and said, “Isn’t that great!” Again, he said, “Maybe.”

The whole process of nature is an integrated process of immense complexity, and it’s really impossible to tell whether anything that happens in it is good or bad — because you never know what will be the consequence of the misfortune; or, you never know what will be the consequences of good fortune.

— Alan Watts

On a personal level, I have experienced some pretty catastrophic failures that taught me important lessons which I was able to leverage into even greater future success.

So honestly, I am fine with (a) or (b) and I think either are reasonable questions. Really all I am trying to do is encourage you to aim up and articulate that aim. I am not doing a great job, but I am trying.

Re: Is Sora the beginning of the end for OpenAI?

#172
post #97

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

> Oh, do shut up OP is speaking the truth here. > It's finally now dawning on the majority of Britons that Brexit was a mistake As of June 2025, 56 percent of people in Great Britain thought that it was wrong to leave the European Union, compared with 31 percent who thought it was the right decision. https://www.statista.com/statistics/987347/brexit-opinion-po...

When the Remainer Establishment refuse to use new freedoms and possibilities, and spend the intervening nine years telling people it was a bad idea, then I’d be surprised if it didn’t have an impact on public opinion.

Let’s see what a change of government can do.

Re: Is Sora the beginning of the end for OpenAI?

#173

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

> you would prefer to believe that Cambridge Analytica achieved mind control over 17.2M people I'm not sure "motivated to make a bad decision" is the same thing as "achieved mind control".

I’d say the bad decisions were made by Heath in ‘72 and Major in ‘93. Neither offered a referendum. You may consider this a correction.

Re: Is Sora the beginning of the end for OpenAI?

#174

This take feels like classic Cal Newport pattern-matching: something looks vaguely "consumerish," so it must signal decline. It's a huge overreach. Whether OpenAI becomes a truly massive, world-defining company is an open question, but it's not going to be decided by Sora. Treating a research-facing video generator as if it's OpenAI's attempt at the next TikTok is just missing the forest for the trees. Sora isn't a p…

[deleted]

Re: Is Sora the beginning of the end for OpenAI?

#175
post #8

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What was predicted to be next: AGI What we got next: porn

I can't imagine the republican party is going to be particularly happy about AI being used for mass porn generation

The party of grindr-crashing sexual repression[1] outwardly denounces such depravity, but inwardly rejoices at all the shameful images they intend to generate.

1. Red states are way ahead on porn consumption, based on past annual reports by Aylo.

Re: Is Sora the beginning of the end for OpenAI?

#176
post #169

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No I'm saying that people adapt, society adapts. Most people today don't shit themselves in the cinema thinking that the monster will appear among them, they understand that characters in TV series are not real and only the mentally ill will berate the actor in the street for yesterday's episode. It will take some time but it's in fact quite easy to explain it to older relatives if you make a few custom examples. The…

> they understand that characters in TV series are not real They do not which is why a reality TV star who is 'good at business' is the current US President. Reality TV is the old media and people are still falling for it and the consequences of them falling for it will be felt for decades. It will be the same with newer technologies but worse. The novel threat that something like Sora poses isn't just from realism,…

If that's how you view the majority, you simply can't simultaneously be for democracy. It takes some impressive mental gymnastics to redefine democracy as one where somehow people can vote but all truth-production is centralized to the Expert Consensus narrative. I mean, maybe that's right. In fact basically no society till the 20th century has absolute full 1 person 1 vote election based democracy. It's an odd development. In most historic societies they restricted political affairs to certain "intellectually qualified" classes. Of course we see that as deeply unjust and exclusionary. But I'm not sure how else to interpret your type of complaint than as a wish for some kind of restriction on who can have decision power in political matters. But at the se time this is also called defending democracy. It's weird.

Re: Is Sora the beginning of the end for OpenAI?

#177

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As adults already, we grew up with things that are either not relevant or give us the wrong responses to our heuristics. But the kids who grow up with this stuff will just integrate into their life and proceed. The society which results from that will be something we cannot predict as it will be alien to us. Whether it will be better or not -- probably not. Humans evolved to spend most of their time with a small grou…

I don't disagree with any points you made, but I do find it interesting you refused a prompt to imagine a better future, articulate your wants, and practice optimism. That's your choice, but a telling one.

Treating people like children is patronizing and I implore you to stop doing it.

Re: Is Sora the beginning of the end for OpenAI?

#178
post #103

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Porn has driven everyday tech. Online payment systems, broadband adoption. Porn (visual and written erotic impression) has been a normal part of the human experience for thousands of years. Across different religions, cultures, technological capabilities. We're humans. There will always be a market for it, wherever there is a mismatch between desire for and access to sexual activity. Generate your own porn is definit…

This is a meme I see online often (and in the show Silicon Valley), but I don't think it holds up in practice. Re: payment systems, Visa and MC are notoriously unfriendly to porn vendors, sending them into the arms of crooked payment processors like Wirecard. Paypal grew to prominence because it was once the only way to buy and sell on Ebay. Crypto went from nerd hobby to speculative asset, shipping the "medium of ex…

Third example may sway you;

https://www.computerworld.com/article/1688383/porn-industry-...

Re: Is Sora the beginning of the end for OpenAI?

#179

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't disagree with any points you made, but I do find it interesting you refused a prompt to imagine a better future, articulate your wants, and practice optimism. That's your choice, but a telling one.

Treating people like children is patronizing and I implore you to stop doing it.

You’re right, and I’m sorry.

The way I phrased that was patronizing. It wasn't my intention, but I see now how it comes across.

It seems to me like the attention economy's bias towards threatening novel news is pushing everyone into a negative, cynical, feedback loop, and I am trying clumsily to resist that. There are many real problems and many things seem to be going in the wrong direction, but I don't see how we all get ourselves out of this mess if we can't start talking about what the other side (of the despair) looks like.

I suspect that another mistake I made was the timing/context. For some reason, in the moment, I thought redirecting the cynicism at it's source (a Sora thread) was a good idea. It probably wasn't. I guess there is a time and place to try and inspire hope, and this wasn't it. And judging you for not engaging in it deserves a facepalm in hindsight.

Please accept my apology, and if you think my stance itself is misguided (not just my tone and timing), I would like to understand why.

Re: Is Sora the beginning of the end for OpenAI?

#180
post #69
post #57

I could see Sora having a significant negative impact on short form video products like TikTok if they don’t quickly and accurately find a way to categorize its use. A steady stream of AI generated video content hurts the value prop of short form video in more than one way… It quickly desensitizes you and takes the surprise out that drives consumption of a lot of content. It also of course leaves you feeling like you…

Do people on the dopamine drip really care how real their content is? Tons and tons of it is staged or modified anyways. I'm not sure there's anything Real™ on TikTok anyways.

I think a lot of them actually do. It's easy to see TikTok users as mindless consumers, but the more you consume the more you develop a taste for unique content. Over the past few years the content that seems to truly do well at a global scale very often has markers of authenticity. Once something becomes easy to produce it becomes commonplace and you become sick of it quickly.
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