2035 singularity etc
2038 will be more significant
For a second I thought you were citing some special mythological timeline from AI folks.
Then I got it. :) Something so mundane that maybe the AIs can help prevent it.
Andrej Karpathy – It will take a decade to work through the issues with agents
71–80 of 1001 posts
Re: Andrej Karpathy – It will take a decade to work through the issues with agents
#72Did anyone here actually watch the video before commenting? I’m seeing all the same old opinions and no specific criticisms of anything Karpathy said here.
Re: Andrej Karpathy – It will take a decade to work through the issues with agents
#73>What takes the long amount of time and the way to think about it is that it’s a march of nines. Every single nine is a constant amount of work. Every single nine is the same amount of work. When you get a demo and something works 90% of the time, that’s just the first nine. Then you need the second nine, a third nine, a fourth nine, a fifth nine. While I was at Tesla for five years or so, we went through maybe three…
like leveling to 99 in old school runescape
Re: Andrej Karpathy – It will take a decade to work through the issues with agents
#74I would bet all of my assets of my life that AGI will not be seen in the lifetime of anyone reading this message right now. That includes anyone reading this message long after the lives of those reading it on its post date have ended. Which of course raises the interesting question of how I can make good on this bet.
Will you take a wager of my one dollar versus your life assets? :)
Re: Andrej Karpathy – It will take a decade to work through the issues with agents
#75Now that Nvidia is the most valuable company, all this talk of actual AGI will be washed away by the huge amount of dollars driving the hype train.
Most of these companies value is built on the idea of AGI being achievable in the near future.
AGI being too close or too far away affects the value of these companies- too close and it'll seem too likely that the current leaders will win. Too far away and the level of spending will seem unsustainable.
Re: Andrej Karpathy – It will take a decade to work through the issues with agents
#76>What takes the long amount of time and the way to think about it is that it’s a march of nines. Every single nine is a constant amount of work. Every single nine is the same amount of work. When you get a demo and something works 90% of the time, that’s just the first nine. Then you need the second nine, a third nine, a fourth nine, a fifth nine. While I was at Tesla for five years or so, we went through maybe three…
This is an amazing quote that really applies to all software development
Re: Andrej Karpathy – It will take a decade to work through the issues with agents
#77I think it's a shame that a 146 minute podcast released ~55 minutes ago has so much discussion. Everybody here is clearly just reacting to the title with their own biases.
I know it's against the guidelines to discuss the state of a thread, but I really wish we could have thoughtful conversations about the content of links instead of title reactions.
Re: Andrej Karpathy – It will take a decade to work through the issues with agents
#78Am I dating myself by thinking Kurzweil is still relevant? 2029: Human-level AI 2045: The Singularity - machine intelligence 1 billion times more powerful than all human intelligence Based on exponential growth in computing. He predicts we'll merge with AI to transcend biological limits. His track record is mixed, but 2029 looks more credible post-GPT-5. The 2045 claim remains highly speculative.
The biggest problem I've had with Kurzweil and the exponential growth curve is that the elbow depends entirely on how you plot and scale the axis. With a certain vantage point we have arguably been on an exponential curve since the advent of Homo Sapiens.
Re: Andrej Karpathy – It will take a decade to work through the issues with agents
#79I remember attending a lecture from a famous quantum computing researcher in 2003. He said that quantum computing is 15-20 years away and then he followed up by saying that if he told anyone it was further away then he wouldn't get funding!
Re: Andrej Karpathy – It will take a decade to work through the issues with agents
#80"The question of whether a computer can think is no more interesting than the question of whether a submarine can swim." - Edsger Dijkstra The debate about AGI is interesting from a philosophical perspective, but from a practical perspective AI doesn't need to get anywhere close to AGI to turn the world upside down.
I don’t even know what AGI is, and neither does anyone else as far as I can tell. In the parts of the video I watched, he cites several things missing which all have to do with autonomy: continual automated updates of internal state, fully autonomous agentic behavior, etc. I feel like GPT 3 was AGI, personally. It crossed some threshold that was both real and magical, and future improvements are relying on that basic…
It crossed some threshold that was both real and magical
and future improvements are relying on that basic set of features at their core