When Will This Low-Innovation Era End? • Hacker News Board

Re: When Will This Low-Innovation Era End?

#51

Post by xnxn » Sun, Sep 23, 2012, 6:59 AM UTC

_lj wrote: post #50

InclinedPlane wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In the future people will look back at comments like this and wonder how we could be so blind. But that's because what will be obvious to them is not so obvious to us. We are immersed in our history, we are distracted by flashy short-term trends and comparatively blind to subtle, long-term trends. Partly because we lack the foresight to see which trends will win out in the long run. However, let's look at how the ver…

"In the future people will look back at comments like this and wonder how we could be so blind." Are you trying to suggest people are going to look back on your comment and wonder how you were so blind? I'm kind of wondering that right now.

35 days ago, you said that we need to focus on constructive comments.

Re: When Will This Low-Innovation Era End?

#52

Post by InclinedPlane » Sun, Sep 23, 2012, 9:03 AM UTC

_lj wrote: post #50

InclinedPlane wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In the future people will look back at comments like this and wonder how we could be so blind. But that's because what will be obvious to them is not so obvious to us. We are immersed in our history, we are distracted by flashy short-term trends and comparatively blind to subtle, long-term trends. Partly because we lack the foresight to see which trends will win out in the long run. However, let's look at how the ver…

"In the future people will look back at comments like this and wonder how we could be so blind." Are you trying to suggest people are going to look back on your comment and wonder how you were so blind? I'm kind of wondering that right now.

I think it's obvious what "this" I was referring too. However, I do include myself and my post in that comment (which is why I said "we"). I have pointed out some ways in which our world is changing and has changed, but I certainly can't predict the future. Looking back from the perspective of the year 2040 there will no doubt be many trends that in retrospect are blindingly obvious but are not apparent to me.

Re: When Will This Low-Innovation Era End?

#53

Post by ippisl » Sun, Sep 23, 2012, 9:54 AM UTC

michaelochurch wrote: post #31

I don't think the pain point for a lot of us is that there isn't much innovation. It's that most of us don't get to take part, nor to guarantee ourselves a fair share of what innovation produces. Most people are barely at the table, without any role or say in the innovation that is going on (which is probably more than at any other time in history). We have one tiny minority (well-connected political and economic eli…

Isn't this normal ? It was the same with the industrial revolution.Those new innovation enabled shitty factories on a mass scale.

One could even say it was the same in the beginning of the automotive revolution: In the 30's cars we're nice and all , but the new powerful motors and radios enabled nazism and tanks and blietzkrieg more than prosperity.

Maybe it's common : Some get fast insight on the use of new technologies and create huge inequality, but with time and struggle societies adapt and better use those technologies.

Re: When Will This Low-Innovation Era End?

#54

Post by richworks » Sun, Sep 23, 2012, 12:49 PM UTC

InclinedPlane wrote: post #24

mynameishere wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The point is that the difference between 1900 and 1960 is fundamental on every level. Carriages -> Cars Land Travel -> Aerospace Iceboxes at best -> Modern refrigeration Pen and Paper -> Computers Newspapers -> Ubiquitous electronic media. Living at the mercy of infectious diseases -> Antibiotics/vaccines. Coal (at best) -> Nuclear Outhouses -> Modern Plumbing and sanitation Etc. You could make similarly great compar…

In the future people will look back at comments like this and wonder how we could be so blind. But that's because what will be obvious to them is not so obvious to us. We are immersed in our history, we are distracted by flashy short-term trends and comparatively blind to subtle, long-term trends. Partly because we lack the foresight to see which trends will win out in the long run. However, let's look at how the ver…

That's was quite surreal to read. Thanks for taking your time to share such a nerve-rattling history of advancements in science and technology. I will probably print it out and frame it on my wall and remind myself that we are already living in the future even though much remains to be seen and accomplished.

Also, is your perspective in this topic synonymous with the law of accelerating change? http://www.kurzweilai.net/the-law-of-accelerating-returns