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German industrial output falls to 2005 levels as auto sector craters

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Re: German industrial output falls to 2005 levels as auto sector craters

#81

Why is output falling? Are there other countries taking the market share? Or is there more to it?

People don’t see a forest from the trees, the answer is simple;

They cut off their main energy supplier and opted for a much more expensive one.

Re: German industrial output falls to 2005 levels as auto sector craters

#83
post #80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What makes German cars uncompetitive in the world market are actually high production costs. Which is due to high energy, labour cost and social tax. Combined with a lack of innovation. This is impossible to fix with a state subsidy.

> This is impossible to fix with a state subsidy. Is it? Because that's definitely how China is doing it: https://rhg.com/research/chinas-subsidies-are-fueling-involu...

Those are consumer subsidies, they make buying a cheaply produced car cheaper, they don't make producing a car cheaper. Of course you can industrial policy for that as well, if you have the right conditions, cheap industrial inputs, and can eat domestic politics shit, i.e. automate the workforce. But DE probably don't have the domestic politics to automate the workforce nor future access to cheap gas.

So their industrial problem can't be fixed with subsidies, as in subsidies not capable of improving long term DE competitiveness without subsidies. Even if they automate workfroce and remove social benefits, lack of access to cheap industrial feedstock is precluding, i.e can't offset structurally disadvantage of being more expensive producer on input level.

Re: German industrial output falls to 2005 levels as auto sector craters

#84
post #73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Germany (and the EU generally) import 98% of their oil-derived products.. Before sanctions the leading import source was Russia. EVs could have helped a lot more as China has demonstrated but people like the brum-brum noise and all the right-wing parties with mysterious ties to Russia and other fossil fuel producers didn't think they'd work for some reason.

Beyond the points you made about petrol cars, the price is also a big factor. In the EU, car companies only sell large (and very expensive) SUVs. If you want to have a fully electric car on top of that, the bill will be far too high for most people. This is also why the EU is seeing a switch where people can't buy their cars anymore and have to lease them or hope their employer will do it for them as part of a compan…

> In the EU, car companies only sell large (and very expensive) SUVs.

News to me. Did you mean in the US? Or did you mean the most famous German brands like BMW and Audi?

For the EU as a whole, there's e.g. Dacia which is Romanian and therefore EU: https://shop.dacia.de/offer/257/235286/0/0 this is clearly neither an SUV, nor particularly expensive — even 18 years ago I was seeing things for about this price new, and there's been a lot of inflation since then.

Re: German industrial output falls to 2005 levels as auto sector craters

#85

Given that France is also starting to suffer badly, one thing to watch is more and more people demanding a cut to EU budget contributions from these countries. Its like 40 billion EUR worth of net transfers. Could make for explosive politics.

Much to my annoyance, despite this being practically a rounding error (like, 1% or so of GDP), the EU budget contributions absolutely did have this effect in the UK.

Re: German industrial output falls to 2005 levels as auto sector craters

#86
post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I guess they're talking about neoliberal, which is completely different from liberal (but overlaps - both liberals and conservatives are neoliberal; actual leftists aren't)

The problem are leftist policies that have completely destroyed any economic dynamism and that have created such high tax burdens that working full-time and trying to advance in your career is basically not worth it for many professionals. I know a lot of people who have either left the country or who have switched to part-time, because doing four days a week gives you 50% more weekend, but only costs you a little bi…

That doesn't explain how Denmark and Sweden can have quite high economic dynamism while the tax burden is higher than Germany.

It's not that simple, it's never that simple...

Re: German industrial output falls to 2005 levels as auto sector craters

#87

A story from a german town: We have an 200 year old bridge, which can't be used anymore. It's a small bridge only about 100m long and 5m high i would guess. The state owned railroad wants to replace it. Everybody agrees. Local people are happy. They simple want to build the new one right next to the old one and then take the old one down. But still in spite of everybody agreeing it took 20 years!! to get the permit.…

It seems a lot of blame is put on regulation when there is also a lack of a "can do attitude" or a sense or urgency that procedures that might have been okay to take a couple of years in the past have to happen much more quickly nowadays.

Re: German industrial output falls to 2005 levels as auto sector craters

#88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Even if we assume, for the sake of argument, that Ukraine "was flirting with NATO". Why does that justify an invasion? Why do you think Ukraine or NATO or the US are at fault here? Accepting that trying to get closer to NATO justifies this invasion, usually with the term "legitimate Russian security interests" denies Ukrainian sovereignty. Russia does not have the right to impose its will on its neighbours.

> Even if we assume, for the sake of argument, that Ukraine "was flirting with NATO". Why does that justify an invasion? Why do you think Ukraine or NATO or the US are at fault here? Read up on Cuban missile crisis, it might provide some context. No superpower has the right to impose its will on its neighbours, yet here we are : https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_involvement_in_r...

You might want to take your own advice, because Cuba is the opposite of the example you're trying to make. The Cuban missile crisis was about nuclear weapons only. Cuba continued to host Soviet fighters, bombers, missile cruisers and many other conventional weapons until the dissolution of the USSR in 1991 - far, far beyond what any NATO member has seen after the Cold War, let alone potential candidates like Ukraine or Georgia.

Re: German industrial output falls to 2005 levels as auto sector craters

#89

A story from a german town: We have an 200 year old bridge, which can't be used anymore. It's a small bridge only about 100m long and 5m high i would guess. The state owned railroad wants to replace it. Everybody agrees. Local people are happy. They simple want to build the new one right next to the old one and then take the old one down. But still in spite of everybody agreeing it took 20 years!! to get the permit.…

Regulation is slowly strangling most countries. We need to find ways to stop the continuous cancerous growth of bureaucracy. Currently it is impossible to fire any government employees, meaning they keep adding more and more and the old ones just stop working. No more work gets done overall.

Re: German industrial output falls to 2005 levels as auto sector craters

#90

Why is output falling? Are there other countries taking the market share? Or is there more to it?

They seppukued by walking away from cheap RU gas. Cheap RU gas isn't just power, it's cheap industrial feedstock/inputs. Renewable/nuclear does not replace this. So all the wank about their energy policy is distraction. TLDR: Competitive Germany industry needs cheap RU gas. Healthy German economy with 40% trade GDP needs US + PRC, then RoW markets. PRC market going away. Germany "chose" (maybe pressured) into expensi…

Counterpoint: Japan doesn't have cheap feedstocks and makes cars fine.
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