NFL opens Pandora's Box by offering All-22 tape to public • Hacker News Board

Re: NFL opens Pandora's Box by offering All-22 tape to public

#81

Post by alokv28 » Thu, Sep 20, 2012, 9:40 PM UTC

bartonfink wrote: post #2

This is very exciting, as there's a lot of strategy to American football that isn't plainly visible when the camera just follows the ball as it does on television. It's not going to showcase technique very well, but it'll go a long way towards explaining e.g. why some wide receivers are always open, why some players always seem to be in the right position to interrupt a pass, etc. I'd actually find it very interestin…

Some great blogs that cover the Xs and Os really well.

Here's one - http://smartfootball.com/

Re: NFL opens Pandora's Box by offering All-22 tape to public

#82

Post by Retric » Thu, Sep 20, 2012, 9:42 PM UTC

wangarific wrote: post #52

Evbn wrote: post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The same argument was used to defend closed access journals: the public can't be trusted to understand raw scientific research.

Anytime you open up anything like this, you force the "experts" to prove they're actually experts... and that's often difficult.

It's not always easy to judge. If a local weather man says 30% chance of rain in DC, does that account mean rain on in some part of DC, 30% of DC will get rain, the average chance of rain for the area is 30% with some parts of it having above 30% and others lower, or some combination of all 3.

Re: NFL opens Pandora's Box by offering All-22 tape to public

#83

Post by 001sky » Thu, Sep 20, 2012, 10:04 PM UTC

Evbn wrote: post #45

jerf wrote: post #19

The argument in this article is just ridiculous. Handwringing about giving fans more information because they might not interpret it correctly? Breaking news: A lot of people are already plenty wrong with the current amount of information. They'll be wrong with less, they'll be wrong with more, they'll be wrong if the info level stays the same. This is therefore a null argument.

The same argument was used to defend closed access journals: the public can't be trusted to understand raw scientific research.

This is a good point. What's ironic is that American Football playbooks, formations, and strategies are almost ludicrously complex. And the number of people that think athletes are "stupid" is amusingly large. A large number of the latter are ignorant of the former, including a large chunk of "intellectuals" contributing to closed access journals. people are intelligent in various ways, 3D spatial intelligence for example does not translate into wirting per-se. Nor does it follow that because you are book-smart you will have a clue about analyzing game film.

Re: NFL opens Pandora's Box by offering All-22 tape to public

#84

Post by fusiongyro » Thu, Sep 20, 2012, 10:08 PM UTC

kd0amg wrote: post #3

bartonfink wrote: post #2

This is very exciting, as there's a lot of strategy to American football that isn't plainly visible when the camera just follows the ball as it does on television. It's not going to showcase technique very well, but it'll go a long way towards explaining e.g. why some wide receivers are always open, why some players always seem to be in the right position to interrupt a pass, etc. I'd actually find it very interestin…

However, I'm not sure it's of wide interest to HN. As far as I can tell, I'm the only one here who likes NFL football. HN users probably aren't much into football, but they do seem to enjoy finding out about strategy involved in things they haven't thought much about.

Hit the nail on the head for me. I don't really give a damn about football, but I found the article interesting, came here to blow smoke about it, found jerf had beaten me to it.

My wife and I love the show "The League," but I wouldn't be able to watch it without her there to explain the football references, which are plentiful. I find myself idly wondering what it would take to write a fantasy football site and what the benefits could be.

I inferred the existence of high quality geeks who care a lot about football from my geologist friend, who told me a few years ago that every year somebody releases a modified ROM of NES Tecmo Superbowl with updates for the current season.

Re: NFL opens Pandora's Box by offering All-22 tape to public

#85

Post by thisAintNoGame » Thu, Sep 20, 2012, 10:12 PM UTC

law wrote: post #31

It's incredible that they're offering this tape--especially from a computer vision perspective. With enough data, one could conceivably write a program that predicts a team's next play based on the players' pre-snap formation and the previous plays.

I actually dont think you could do that because teams need to randomize amongst plays or else defenses would crush them. That is one of the coolest (in my opinion) parts about football is the amount of strategic depth that goes into it. For a quick reference: http://www.advancednflstats.com/2008/06/game-theory-and-runp...

Re: NFL opens Pandora's Box by offering All-22 tape to public

#86

Post by bps4484 » Thu, Sep 20, 2012, 10:25 PM UTC

alokv28 wrote: post #81

bartonfink wrote: post #2

This is very exciting, as there's a lot of strategy to American football that isn't plainly visible when the camera just follows the ball as it does on television. It's not going to showcase technique very well, but it'll go a long way towards explaining e.g. why some wide receivers are always open, why some players always seem to be in the right position to interrupt a pass, etc. I'd actually find it very interestin…

Some great blogs that cover the Xs and Os really well. Here's one - http://smartfootball.com/

Seconded. If you want to get started on something that you may have always wondered about, here is some in depth analysis of the peyton manning offense in indy:

http://smartfootball.com/offense/peyton-manning-and-tom-moor...

Re: NFL opens Pandora's Box by offering All-22 tape to public

#87

Post by bps4484 » Thu, Sep 20, 2012, 10:27 PM UTC

freshrap6 wrote: post #69

bartonfink wrote: post #2

This is very exciting, as there's a lot of strategy to American football that isn't plainly visible when the camera just follows the ball as it does on television. It's not going to showcase technique very well, but it'll go a long way towards explaining e.g. why some wide receivers are always open, why some players always seem to be in the right position to interrupt a pass, etc. I'd actually find it very interestin…

Are there many sports based startups? I'd love to learn more about some.

numberfire out of nyc does advanced fantasy stats:

https://www.numberfire.com/

Re: NFL opens Pandora's Box by offering All-22 tape to public

#88

Post by jimmytucson » Thu, Sep 20, 2012, 10:30 PM UTC

law wrote: post #31

It's incredible that they're offering this tape--especially from a computer vision perspective. With enough data, one could conceivably write a program that predicts a team's next play based on the players' pre-snap formation and the previous plays.

Actually, this kind of thing has been around for a long time.

Football Outsiders does game charting and "advanced NFL statistics". People have published papers on using artificial neural networks to predict play calling, success rates, even injuries and stuff like that.

But this does give us the ability to enrich the data quite a bit. When you watch the live film you really can't see who blew a coverage where or why the safety didn't get to the running back in time to make a tackle. I think if you just watch the TV angles then you might not be convinced that pump fakes actually do anything to confuse the defense.

There's a lot to be gained here by statisticians and casual fans alike but it's hard to see that when only 1/3 of the action is visible at any given time.

Re: NFL opens Pandora's Box by offering All-22 tape to public

#89

Post by Of_Prometheus » Thu, Sep 20, 2012, 10:35 PM UTC

anigbrowl wrote: post #77

jerf wrote: post #19

The argument in this article is just ridiculous. Handwringing about giving fans more information because they might not interpret it correctly? Breaking news: A lot of people are already plenty wrong with the current amount of information. They'll be wrong with less, they'll be wrong with more, they'll be wrong if the info level stays the same. This is therefore a null argument.

The argument in this article is just ridiculous It's on the NFL site. It's advertorial, marketing disguised as journalism. It's not making an argument, it's just stirring one up to get attention.

Don't let the url fool you, Michael Lombardi is actually a very good writer.

I won't comment on the content, but he deserves the benefit of the doubt.

Re: NFL opens Pandora's Box by offering All-22 tape to public

#90

Post by AgentConundrum » Thu, Sep 20, 2012, 10:37 PM UTC

anigbrowl wrote: post #77

jerf wrote: post #19

The argument in this article is just ridiculous. Handwringing about giving fans more information because they might not interpret it correctly? Breaking news: A lot of people are already plenty wrong with the current amount of information. They'll be wrong with less, they'll be wrong with more, they'll be wrong if the info level stays the same. This is therefore a null argument.

The argument in this article is just ridiculous It's on the NFL site. It's advertorial, marketing disguised as journalism. It's not making an argument, it's just stirring one up to get attention.

> It's advertorial, marketing disguised as journalism.

It's barely even disguised. If it were published by a news organization[1], or really just "someone else", then you would be right.

This is an article on NFL.com about an NFL product. It's straight up advertising. Publishing an "article" to say "this seems 'risky'; why would we even offer this product to you, our fevered fans" is about the thinnest disguise an ad could have.

[1] http://paulgraham.com/submarine.html