America is now one big bet on AI • Hacker News Board

Re: America is now one big bet on AI

#81

Post by bgwalter » Tue, Oct 07, 2025, 2:39 PM UTC

nonethewiser wrote: post #55

bad_haircut72 wrote: post #11

Its not a bubble because the economy isnt actually about trade any more, its about power. The people in power now know that control over technology is the name of the game. It doesnt have to have a return on investment, it has to enable control of public opinion and eventually, robots.

OK Foucault

Would have worked in 2022. Now all oligarchs swore loyalty to Trump, the Ellison family is buying CBS and TikTok, LLMs are audited for compliance. Even here Trump criticism is rare now, because everyone feels being watched.

If the Tesla Optimus will actually work (big if), you will be able to send that to beat down protests in Portland instead of the National Guard.

Re: America is now one big bet on AI

#82

Post by wing-_-nuts » Tue, Oct 07, 2025, 2:39 PM UTC

bgwalter wrote: post #65

softwaredoug wrote: post #13

There is other emerging tech we could be investing in that other economies are doubling-down on. But the Administration has made green energy harder for American companies. And a lot of health tech too is tougher under the current administration. Tarrifs, affordability, etc also hit hard on small businesses, making growth there tough.

That is the tragic part. This administration ran on a platform of bringing back the real economy and manufacturing. Now they fuel the Bitcoin and "AI" bubbles, which are nonessential and non-tangibles. The GDP increases are fake. Mining Bitcoin produces nothing, in fact the money supply should not be increased to match the fake GDP increase. The same is true for "AI".

>Now they fuel the Bitcoin and "AI" bubbles, which are nonessential and non-tangibles.

The current boom has basically had nothing to do with any government efforts. It is booming in spite of the current administration. This is all private industry.

Re: America is now one big bet on AI

#83

Post by realusername » Tue, Oct 07, 2025, 2:40 PM UTC

DebtDeflation wrote: post #77

We're in this weird situation where: 1) the average American is heavily dependent on equities in their 401k for retirement, 2) so the stock market has to go up, 3) but the stock market is already at record valuations and it's difficult to see how forecasted growth levels justify the current valuation let alone an increased valuation, 4) without revenue growth, the only way for companies to sustain EPS growth is massi…

I have the exact same opinion. And I should add that all these companies "firing people to replace them by AI" are in reality just firing people because the economy isn't great, of course that sounds way worse for investors if they told the truth.

Re: America is now one big bet on AI

#84

Post by dghlsakjg » Tue, Oct 07, 2025, 2:40 PM UTC

reustle wrote: post #49

shubhamjain wrote: post #33

> Foreigners poured a record $290bn into US stocks in the second quarter and now own about 30 per cent of the market — the highest share in post-second world war history. Europeans and Canadians have been boycotting American goods but continue buying US stocks in bulk — especially the tech giants. I fail to find any plausible explanation for this other than the fact that yes, it is a bubble. Tesla, a car company faci…

> Do people actually buy into the absurdity of humanoid robots and robotaxis? Have you ever taken a Waymo? You see them on every street in SF now.

I've never even seen a Waymo and I haven't left North America for half a decade. Popular in SF does not mean inevitable everyhwere.

It remains to be seen whether robotaxis can 1. scale outside of certain cities 2. make a profit given the apparent teams of actual human remote drivers that robotaxi companies employ to get their robots out of trouble. I would love to see it, but the lack of speed and momentum points to it having some serious growing pains.

Re: America is now one big bet on AI

#85

Post by sdenton4 » Tue, Oct 07, 2025, 2:40 PM UTC

DebtDeflation wrote: post #77

We're in this weird situation where: 1) the average American is heavily dependent on equities in their 401k for retirement, 2) so the stock market has to go up, 3) but the stock market is already at record valuations and it's difficult to see how forecasted growth levels justify the current valuation let alone an increased valuation, 4) without revenue growth, the only way for companies to sustain EPS growth is massi…

Option 3, nothing changes: people (and institutions) still have income they need to put /somewhere/, and continue putting it in 401ks and index funds because that's the system. Stonks continue to go up, completely unmoored from any behavior in the actual world.

Re: America is now one big bet on AI

#86

Post by righthand » Tue, Oct 07, 2025, 2:40 PM UTC

jebarker wrote: post #47

righthand wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is something I don’t get. The general cost of living is sky rocketing, largely due to this push and some of the population thinks there is prosperity for all on the otherside of the meat processing machine we’re pushing everyone toward. Groceries are going to get more expensive. Every dollar we spend on over building AI infrastructure is a dollar we never get back. We could use this money for other things such a…

> The general cost of living is sky rocketing, largely due to this push How are cost of living increases tied to AI investment?

This is an intentionally disingenuous question right?

Where do you think the tax money being given away to these huge datacenters is going?

What downstream effects does major increase to limited consumer services and goods do across the board?

Re: America is now one big bet on AI

#87

Post by Nasrudith » Tue, Oct 07, 2025, 2:40 PM UTC

jebarker wrote: post #47

righthand wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is something I don’t get. The general cost of living is sky rocketing, largely due to this push and some of the population thinks there is prosperity for all on the otherside of the meat processing machine we’re pushing everyone toward. Groceries are going to get more expensive. Every dollar we spend on over building AI infrastructure is a dollar we never get back. We could use this money for other things such a…

> The general cost of living is sky rocketing, largely due to this push How are cost of living increases tied to AI investment?

There are only two ways it could: either power cost increases which only make up a small portion of cost of living or somehow believing it responsible for inflation. But the latter doesn't make any sense, especially as they believe the money spent to be 'lost'.

Re: America is now one big bet on AI

#88

Post by Spivak » Tue, Oct 07, 2025, 2:40 PM UTC

goalieca wrote: post #59

cs702 wrote: post #39

Key quote: > The hundreds of billions of dollars companies are investing in AI now account for an astonishing 40 per cent share of US GDP growth this year. In other words, investment in AI is a massive private-sector stimulus program, powering economic growth. Questions for which no one knows the answer include: * Will these AI investments earn a positive rate of return in the aggregate? * Without these investments o…

The 40% investment could presumably go into jobs and infrastructure that might be more durable.

I think you would find a large political block that would be more than supportive of economic stimulus taking the form of a public jobs and training program to improve infrastructure, landscaping, and other public works.

I personally would implement it as a "civilian military" to make it a cool high-status line of work that people might choose for a few years out of civic duty. Uniforms, ranks, bases, parades, you get your food/housing provided, you get 'deployed' on projects. Get your college paid for if you stay on long enough.

Re: America is now one big bet on AI

#89

Post by saubeidl » Tue, Oct 07, 2025, 2:40 PM UTC

1234letshaveatw wrote: post #58

SNosTrAnDbLe wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why is this sloppy. The author is not saying that AI is bad but that the current capital being invested in the UD is mostly betting on AI. If you remove AI then what is left?

I'll try again- if market increases are bad, why is it bad to lag behind certain sectors in he EU? (sidestepping the inconvenient truth for the author that a majority of Americans are invested in the stock market). If a shrinking labor market is bad, why are AI productivity gains bad?

It is bad because the market increases are all in one unproven area and if that doesn't work out, everything will crash.

Re: America is now one big bet on AI

#90

Post by tombert » Tue, Oct 07, 2025, 2:41 PM UTC

It is a little frustrating how we as a society have just decided that corporations don’t need to make money, and indeed can just ponzi their way indefinitely as long as they use some vague “tech” branding.

I think this “rapid growth at all costs” is going to bite us, and I think it is possible that it’s going to bite us even more than the .Com bubble or the 2008 crash.

I really hope I am wrong, but I don’t see we can expect companies to keep growing if we don’t require them to be profitable.