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Companies are lying about AI layoffs?

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Re: Companies are lying about AI layoffs?

#71

Post by DebtDeflation »

agentcoops wrote: post #22
DebtDeflation wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What you describe is certainly possible, but it's not what's happening. You can go on Blind, Fishbowl, any work related subreddit, etc. and hear the same story over and over and over - "My company replaced half my department with H1Bs or simply moved it to an offshore center in India, and then on the next earnings call announced that they had replaced all those jobs with AI". There's a reason why "AI = Actually India…

I’m not describing what’s happening right now — I’m saying the data shown in the article is insufficient to ground what it claims. The testimony you mention better supports the argument, but also is insufficient to show that this shift to H1-B is not in addition to a reduction of overall projected headcount due to AI.

Multiple things can be true at once. Some jobs have been eliminated by AI. The H1B system is being abused by employers. Offshoring has replaced more American jobs than H1Bs. Corporations are lying to investors about the impact of AI on their headcount. All of the above are true.

Re: Companies are lying about AI layoffs?

#72

Post by IshKebab »

> American employees are being replaced by cheaper H-1B visa workers.

Ok someone explain to me exactly how they do that, because when I looked into working in America H-1B is a lottery (with 30% win rate) and it only happens once per year.

How exactly do these companies hire people with those constraints?

Re: Companies are lying about AI layoffs?

#73

Post by grafmax »

dijit wrote: post #39
steveBK123 wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Corporate America really thinks we are that stupid

We are, the whole western world is oblivious to this correlation. Even pointing it out like this will cause people to process it and move on as if it's not the common case .

I think most people don’t feel like they have much control over their world and resign themselves to it. This atomization is a central feature of the pseudo-stable system we live under. The antidote is solidarity and collective action. But that requires bravery to jump start because people only tend to turn to that when circumstances become truly bleak.

Re: Companies are lying about AI layoffs?

#74

Post by shrubble »

I’ve worked with both H1B and offshore Indian workers and there is a huge amount of variance in the quality of their work.

This is going to either surprise management or, more likely, have them obfuscate the work done in order to hide certain details of poor performance.

The best workers will have to be compensated somehow, so there will be some opaque org chart setup to allow it.

Re: Companies are lying about AI layoffs?

#75

Post by ozim »

agentcoops wrote: post #64
DebtDeflation wrote: post #9

You also need to consider the impact of offshoring. Accenture's layoffs of 11,000 workers is listed in the chart, but a few days earlier they announced they were opening a new campus in India and hiring 12,000.

I don't disagree, but this has been the trend since the 1990s. This was the whole question of "globalization" and all the debates about NAFTA etc. The only anomaly was that people came to believe (in 2020? maybe even 2016...) that "globalization was over" and that now we saw the reverse trend. That seems to be leading people to now believe that this offshoring is something new, when the most likely interpretation is…

Seems like you missed H1B visa rules change.

They basically move all H1B from US to India not to deal with $100k per employee.

Nothing changes just Indian guys move back to India and will be spending money there instead of sending some money there.

Re: Companies are lying about AI layoffs?

#76

Post by shuckles »

This is bad data analysis. It has all kind of issues: using correlation to imply causation without any proposed causal mechanism; various selection bias; no context given for how the companies analyzed were selected; laughably large ranges for data points; etc.

One of the worst parts, in my opinion, is how the author misunderstands the meaning of "Actually Indians," which is about the data labeling workforce, not the white collar technical workforce.

Re: Companies are lying about AI layoffs?

#77

Post by rimunroe »

whywhywhywhy wrote: post #55
athrowaway3z wrote: post #48

I'm more of the belief that: - Layoffs would have happened anyway, natural cycle of shedding underperformers. - the current crop of graduates have too little AI experience from their education, and too little practical experience to be useful in an industry re-arranging itself. - the average developer quality (i.e. boot camps & curriculum) has dropped the value of "a developer" from a manager's perspective, up to the…

> the current crop of graduates have too little AI experience from their education Why would you need education to understand how to use the thing that means you don't need education

I see fairly few people claiming effectively using AI doesn’t require learning anything. I see a lot of people claiming it requires learning a lot less than traditional methods.

Re: Companies are lying about AI layoffs?

#78

Post by scarface_74 »

efitz wrote: post #42
sfn42 wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Looking at who you elected (twice!!) I don't know how wrong they are.

The man who just instituted a policy requiring companies to pay $100k per H1-B visa? Maybe US voters aren’t so stupid after all.

He didn’t “institute” anything. He can’t do it without getting a law passed.

That’s just like the “deal” he made with Nvidia that Nvidia would pay 15% of revenue for every processor shipped to China.

The CFO of Nvidia said on the earnings call that it doesn’t matter what deal someone at his company made with Trump, he isn’t authorizing any funds transfer until there is a law passed.

Even my mid sized company when asked when they would start allowing private equity and crypto based on Trump’s announcement, they said not until a law is passed by Congress.

On a completely separate note, of the large tech companies can’t get H1Bs cheaply, they will continue to expand their presence outside of the country.

Re: Companies are lying about AI layoffs?

#79

Post by 4gotunameagain »

shrubble wrote: post #74

I’ve worked with both H1B and offshore Indian workers and there is a huge amount of variance in the quality of their work. This is going to either surprise management or, more likely, have them obfuscate the work done in order to hide certain details of poor performance. The best workers will have to be compensated somehow, so there will be some opaque org chart setup to allow it.

There's also the huge cultural gap, where in Indian culture gaming the system is considered smart, while in other countries unethical.

Re: Companies are lying about AI layoffs?

#80

Post by DebtDeflation »

ozim wrote: post #75
agentcoops wrote: post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't disagree, but this has been the trend since the 1990s. This was the whole question of "globalization" and all the debates about NAFTA etc. The only anomaly was that people came to believe (in 2020? maybe even 2016...) that "globalization was over" and that now we saw the reverse trend. That seems to be leading people to now believe that this offshoring is something new, when the most likely interpretation is…

Seems like you missed H1B visa rules change. They basically move all H1B from US to India not to deal with $100k per employee. Nothing changes just Indian guys move back to India and will be spending money there instead of sending some money there.

Labor really is not fungible that way. On shore H1B Indians generally are higher skilled than offshore Indians, perform different roles at companies, and are paid more. Many of them could have chosen different careers than Tech and likely will if they move back to India.
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