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Companies are lying about AI layoffs?

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Re: Companies are lying about AI layoffs?

#61

Post by tpxl »

mschuster91 wrote: post #33
bell-cot wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, the top "cost" problems with hiring Americans are America's out-of-control costs for education, health care, and housing. Those industries (or existing homeowners, for housing) are growing obscenely fat and rich. And really don't care if they destroy America's economic future as a side-effect.

> Those industries (or existing homeowners, for housing) are growing obscenely fat and rich. The problem is, sure, your house that your parents built for 100k in the 80 is worth 1 million dollars on paper, just because of urbanization. But that "wealth" is pretty much useless, at least as long as you reside there it can't be realized. So you either have to sell off the existing home and find a new place to live which…

> That's also why taxing real estate on land value is a very, very bad idea - land values rise exponentially or at the very least far faster than wages

If you tax real estate, owners of real estate will make sure it's not overvalued by encouraging more real estate to be built.

Re: Companies are lying about AI layoffs?

#62

Post by grafmax »

mschuster91 wrote: post #33
bell-cot wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, the top "cost" problems with hiring Americans are America's out-of-control costs for education, health care, and housing. Those industries (or existing homeowners, for housing) are growing obscenely fat and rich. And really don't care if they destroy America's economic future as a side-effect.

> Those industries (or existing homeowners, for housing) are growing obscenely fat and rich. The problem is, sure, your house that your parents built for 100k in the 80 is worth 1 million dollars on paper, just because of urbanization. But that "wealth" is pretty much useless, at least as long as you reside there it can't be realized. So you either have to sell off the existing home and find a new place to live which…

Land values have risen faster than wages due to growing wealth inequality - whereas as land value tax does not pass, empirically speaking, through to renters - because there is a fixed amount of land. In other words higher land value taxes could have helped mitigate or even cancel the the disconnect between wage and housing costs that we have become afflicted by in this upward transfer of wealth.

Re: Companies are lying about AI layoffs?

#63

Post by theoreticalmal »

NoNameHaveI wrote: post #60
DebtDeflation wrote: post #9

You also need to consider the impact of offshoring. Accenture's layoffs of 11,000 workers is listed in the chart, but a few days earlier they announced they were opening a new campus in India and hiring 12,000.

If you are looking for offshore proof employment it is worth noting that defense contractors are scrambling to find qualified help. 3 conditions: 1. Work on site typically 100% because classified systems are not 'net connected. 2. No drug use. Not even THC, even if your state "legalized" it. Still illegal at the federal level. 3. No criminal history, at least in the last 10 years. 4. Must pass a FBI background check…

Where can I get involved in this?

Re: Companies are lying about AI layoffs?

#64

Post by agentcoops »

DebtDeflation wrote: post #9

You also need to consider the impact of offshoring. Accenture's layoffs of 11,000 workers is listed in the chart, but a few days earlier they announced they were opening a new campus in India and hiring 12,000.

I don't disagree, but this has been the trend since the 1990s. This was the whole question of "globalization" and all the debates about NAFTA etc. The only anomaly was that people came to believe (in 2020? maybe even 2016...) that "globalization was over" and that now we saw the reverse trend. That seems to be leading people to now believe that this offshoring is something new, when the most likely interpretation is that it never went away.

None of the above, however, begins to touch the question of whether AI has, is or will introduce an entirely new dynamic into the equation. I'm not sure myself of the answer to this question, but I believe it's a very important one and shouldn't be dismissed too quickly -- certainly not by the continued presence of an undeniable tendency of labor markets that has long been observed.

Re: Companies are lying about AI layoffs?

#65

Post by r_lee »

nis0s wrote: post #51
XorNot wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> 3) The most expensive thing on the U.S. budget books for employers, employees and the government is social security and Medicare. Some countries simply deny their citizens and workers social security and access to welfare programs, which helps keep the cost of employing them down. Holy cope batman! A whole bunch of countries...just provide those things as government services too! You can employ whoever you want and…

Please actually look at the hard facts before you say this, not everywhere is Europe.

And in Europe some countries you have to pay for social contributions and pension tax etc.

Re: Companies are lying about AI layoffs?

#66

Post by dgfitz »

theoreticalmal wrote: post #63
NoNameHaveI wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you are looking for offshore proof employment it is worth noting that defense contractors are scrambling to find qualified help. 3 conditions: 1. Work on site typically 100% because classified systems are not 'net connected. 2. No drug use. Not even THC, even if your state "legalized" it. Still illegal at the federal level. 3. No criminal history, at least in the last 10 years. 4. Must pass a FBI background check…

Where can I get involved in this?

There are a ton of govt. contractors in the DC/Baltimore area.

Re: Companies are lying about AI layoffs?

#67

Post by nQQKTz7dm27oZ »

nis0s wrote: post #8

The hard truth for Americans (I am talking about Americans because most of these are large cap US companies) is that other countries are cheaper for the following reasons: 1) Companies can find comparably trained and educated workers in non-US countries at cheaper rates because the U.S. education system doesn’t discriminate against less performant students. The education systems in many other countries are competitiv…

[flagged]

Re: Companies are lying about AI layoffs?

#68

Post by nis0s »

hshdhdhj4444 wrote: post #28
XorNot wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> 3) The most expensive thing on the U.S. budget books for employers, employees and the government is social security and Medicare. Some countries simply deny their citizens and workers social security and access to welfare programs, which helps keep the cost of employing them down. Holy cope batman! A whole bunch of countries...just provide those things as government services too! You can employ whoever you want and…

Came in to say this. The level of confidence my fellow Americans have in their understanding of the rest of the world without knowing anything about the rest of the world is always hilarious to watch. Even India has a vast network of completely free government provided healthcare. Of course, the quality leaves a lot to be desired but bit beats walking into the ER to receive basic care and bankruptcies due to medical…

Countries where most white collar jobs are being offshored to expect on average 10-12% social security contribution from employers. In some of these countries, less than 50% qualify to be on social security. Collectively, the U.S. employer and employee pay 12% towards it, but higher cost of living requires setting salaries higher to compensate, and all US workers except illegal immigrants qualify for social security.

Re: Companies are lying about AI layoffs?

#69

Post by grafmax »

sfn42 wrote: post #32
steveBK123 wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Corporate America really thinks we are that stupid

Looking at who you elected (twice!!) I don't know how wrong they are.

Plenty of layoffs and offshoring have occurred under Democratic administrations as well. Both parties serve the wealthy against the working class. One is indeed more brazen about it however.

Re: Companies are lying about AI layoffs?

#70

Post by AznHisoka »

agentcoops wrote: post #40
huijzer wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It requires an accounting perspective on the inflows and outflows of an ongoing process and not just a small slice of data. Correct, but we don't have that information so we have to rely on a best guess. We're not dealing with code here where everything is known exactly. > Yet, the main question for actually measuring the (firm and investor expected) impact of AI is whether that rate of headcount growth has changed…

Apologies if my presentation is inadequate, but I’m not suggesting that stock price is a proxy for headcount. I’m simply arguing that you have to look at the two together in the context of a particular firm — for exactly the reason you note, ie NVIDIA has a lower head count per share etc. It’s the ratio that matters and is the best proxy we have for inferring the cause of a shift in hiring. Lower growth of headcount…

>> lower growth of headcount and stock price remaining constant or rising would be more suggestive of (not causal proof of course) of an AI-related effect.

Since stock prices are basically future expectations, wouldnt it probably be because investors expect the company to be more efficient cashflow wise? (Earn more per employee)

Not necessarily because they already are more cashflow efficient?

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