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CPI for all items rises 0.4% in August, 2.9% YoY; shelter and food up

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Re: CPI for all items rises 0.4% in August, 2.9% YoY; shelter and food up

#101

Post by 9rx »

MattPalmer1086 wrote: post #97
skdjbd wrote: post #92

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The motivation for 2%/year is that when inflation is lower, businesses and consumers tend to hoard more cash, instead of spending or investing it, reducing economic activity That’s what they say. In reality, inflation is a permanent tax on those who earn money through labor. Every greenback they print makes 90% of us a little poorer, and conversely makes the capital holders richer. Popular economists should be thou…

We should not downvote a post just because we may disagree with it. That doesn't foster curiosity and discussion. It's clear that continual inflation makes us poorer (unless we can also obtain pay rises). To me it's also clear that having no inflation (or indeed, deflation) would disincentivise investment. So I'm in favour of targeting a minimal inflation rate. If there are other economic systems that would give both…

> We should not downvote a post just because we may disagree with it.

There is nothing to suggest it was downvoted because of disagreement. We have no idea why it was downvoted. But the most likely explanation is that a user with poor dexterity accidentally pressed the button. There is no logical reason for why someone would purposefully exert the effort to press a button that doesn't do anything other than maybe change the font color. And one will employ a once and done CSS override to change the color if they really don't like the default choice for some reason.

Re: CPI for all items rises 0.4% in August, 2.9% YoY; shelter and food up

#102

Post by Yoric »

throw0101d wrote: post #52
ACCount37 wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It also requires human labor, which isn't impacted by tariffs directly, but may be impacted by other government actions in the US. Such as the ongoing high profile crackdown on illegal immigrant labor.

> It also requires human labor, which isn't impacted by tariffs directly, but may be impacted by other government actions in the US. If people think prices will go up they will insist on bigger raises. It's why expectations can be as important as what 'actually' happens: * https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wage–price_spiral

Do they have power to insist on bigger raises?

Re: CPI for all items rises 0.4% in August, 2.9% YoY; shelter and food up

#103

Post by rsync »

brendoelfrendo wrote: post #94
gruez wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>what business would invest in expansion beyond what is necessary to grease the palms that need greasing? Way too much uncertainty. Time for stock buybacks. AI and AI related companies are the opposite of this.

AI is not going to be able to grow geometrically forever. OpenAI and Oracle just signed a $300 billion contract. OpenAI doesn't have $300 billion. Oracle doesn't have enough chips on hand nor enough cash to buy them in order to fulfill these obligations. Based on RPO, Oracle is estimating that their cloud revenues will grow from roughly $10 billion now to $144 billion by 2030. That's insane, and yet it was enough to…

ORCX exists …

I was very tempted by long dated puts on this when the intro-day high of +40% was reached…

Re: CPI for all items rises 0.4% in August, 2.9% YoY; shelter and food up

#104

Post by rsync »

Workaccount2 wrote: post #70

Interestingly treasury yields are down on this news, whereas on paper you would expect the opposite. Equities are up, on paper you would expect a toss-up (lower rate cut pushing down, inflation pushing up). Gold is down slightly. All this suggests these numbers, while being inflationary, are better then anticipated.

You are correct that this is confusing… one of these markets, broadly speaking, is wrong.

I think the bond market is betting on no rate cut and we are seeing early entrants into a larger flight to safety.

Re: CPI for all items rises 0.4% in August, 2.9% YoY; shelter and food up

#105

Post by MattPalmer1086 »

9rx wrote: post #101
MattPalmer1086 wrote: post #97

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We should not downvote a post just because we may disagree with it. That doesn't foster curiosity and discussion. It's clear that continual inflation makes us poorer (unless we can also obtain pay rises). To me it's also clear that having no inflation (or indeed, deflation) would disincentivise investment. So I'm in favour of targeting a minimal inflation rate. If there are other economic systems that would give both…

> We should not downvote a post just because we may disagree with it. There is nothing to suggest it was downvoted because of disagreement. We have no idea why it was downvoted. But the most likely explanation is that a user with poor dexterity accidentally pressed the button. There is no logical reason for why someone would purposefully exert the effort to press a button that doesn't do anything other than maybe cha…

It had multiple downvotes; a single one doesn't fade it out that much. I see nothing in the post that warrants that.

Anyway - don't want to argue about that really. I would prefer to discuss the economic points raised.

Re: CPI for all items rises 0.4% in August, 2.9% YoY; shelter and food up

#106

Post by throw0101d »

Yoric wrote: post #102
throw0101d wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It also requires human labor, which isn't impacted by tariffs directly, but may be impacted by other government actions in the US. If people think prices will go up they will insist on bigger raises. It's why expectations can be as important as what 'actually' happens: * https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wage–price_spiral

Do they have power to insist on bigger raises?

> Do they have power to insist on bigger raises?

Depends on the "they". These folks seem to have:

* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_port_strike

Re: CPI for all items rises 0.4% in August, 2.9% YoY; shelter and food up

#107

Post by 9rx »

MattPalmer1086 wrote: post #105
9rx wrote: post #101

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> We should not downvote a post just because we may disagree with it. There is nothing to suggest it was downvoted because of disagreement. We have no idea why it was downvoted. But the most likely explanation is that a user with poor dexterity accidentally pressed the button. There is no logical reason for why someone would purposefully exert the effort to press a button that doesn't do anything other than maybe cha…

It had multiple downvotes; a single one doesn't fade it out that much. I see nothing in the post that warrants that. Anyway - don't want to argue about that really. I would prefer to discuss the economic points raised.

> It had multiple downvotes

Well, the HN has been around for quite some time now and the user base is getting older. Dexterity doesn't get better in old age.

> I would prefer to discuss the economic points raised.

Go nuts! Nothing stopping you but yourself.

Re: CPI for all items rises 0.4% in August, 2.9% YoY; shelter and food up

#108

Post by readthenotes1 »

jlongr wrote: post #81
UncleMeat wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The point is that the annual number is often rather confusing from a reporting perspective.

They said: "12*0.4% is 4.8%. Inflation is running at an annualised 4.8%." This is patently wrong.

Because it's 1.04^12?

Or are you addressing some other flaw?

Re: CPI for all items rises 0.4% in August, 2.9% YoY; shelter and food up

#109

Post by notmyjob »

jghn wrote: post #96
notmyjob wrote: post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You cannot reduce rent period. Inflation is permanent typically, you can slow the rate of increase but prices don’t go back. Even massive building projects like the yimby’s lobby for can’t move the needle on housing costs according to economists who study the issue. If you are a renter in Silicon Valley you are absolutely competing with non-citizens who are paying 3k for 1 and 2 bedroom apartments. That’s why so many…

"non-citizens" and "undocumented workers" don't even come close to forming a circle in a Venn diagram.

I meant “undocumented workers” but didn’t want to offend people and don’t know that these “undocumented” people are actual workers. The phrase “undocumented worker” is, if not absurd newspeak, at these very least extremely imprecise: what documents, what work?

Edit: here’s a thread on one such place, very much in the good, expensive side of town. (Studios go for about 3k in Campbell last I checked.) https://www.reddit.com/r/SanJose/comments/17acwq4/is_cadilla...

Many, though perhaps not most, of the non-citizens there are non-workers, unless you consider drug dealing gang members workers.

They do have a stellar carniceria though, and it’s fairly safe during the day if you avoid eye contact with men and don’t wear certain colors.

Re: CPI for all items rises 0.4% in August, 2.9% YoY; shelter and food up

#110

Post by myvoiceismypass »

9rx wrote: post #101
MattPalmer1086 wrote: post #97

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We should not downvote a post just because we may disagree with it. That doesn't foster curiosity and discussion. It's clear that continual inflation makes us poorer (unless we can also obtain pay rises). To me it's also clear that having no inflation (or indeed, deflation) would disincentivise investment. So I'm in favour of targeting a minimal inflation rate. If there are other economic systems that would give both…

> We should not downvote a post just because we may disagree with it. There is nothing to suggest it was downvoted because of disagreement. We have no idea why it was downvoted. But the most likely explanation is that a user with poor dexterity accidentally pressed the button. There is no logical reason for why someone would purposefully exert the effort to press a button that doesn't do anything other than maybe cha…

This is honestly quite easy to fumble on mobile, the arrows together are smaller than any of my fingertips (iPhone 16 pro, Safari), so it takes a bit of effort to be precise.
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