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CPI for all items rises 0.4% in August, 2.9% YoY; shelter and food up

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Re: CPI for all items rises 0.4% in August, 2.9% YoY; shelter and food up

#41

Post by throwawaysleep »

Aurornis wrote: post #31
ACCount37 wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It also requires human labor, which isn't impacted by tariffs directly, but may be impacted by other government actions in the US. Such as the ongoing high profile crackdown on illegal immigrant labor.

Look at the actual deportation numbers. It’s barely on track to meet deportation rates from a decade ago. Don’t believe the political rhetoric. They’re making a big show and behaving poorly with the masks and other abuses, but they’re not actually doing abnormally high deportations. Note that any large country will have a steady flow of deportations due to basic enforcement of immigration laws.

Crackdown != deportations. If workers stay away from job sites, the labor is off the market even if they don’t leave the country.

Re: CPI for all items rises 0.4% in August, 2.9% YoY; shelter and food up

#42

Post by seneca »

bix6 wrote: post #2

100% odds the Fed cuts but inflation seems entrenched. Will the cut really help pull the labor market up? Tourism is down, AI is up, etc.

Polymarket puts a cut at 98% likely currently: https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decision-in-september?tid=1...

Re: CPI for all items rises 0.4% in August, 2.9% YoY; shelter and food up

#43

Post by helsinki8 »

Aurornis wrote: post #31
ACCount37 wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It also requires human labor, which isn't impacted by tariffs directly, but may be impacted by other government actions in the US. Such as the ongoing high profile crackdown on illegal immigrant labor.

Look at the actual deportation numbers. It’s barely on track to meet deportation rates from a decade ago. Don’t believe the political rhetoric. They’re making a big show and behaving poorly with the masks and other abuses, but they’re not actually doing abnormally high deportations. Note that any large country will have a steady flow of deportations due to basic enforcement of immigration laws.

Deportation numbers can be highly misleading because of changes in how border interactions were recorded. There have been changes at various times to count as a deportation turning someone back at the border, or to count it as a refusal of entry.

Deporting 100 people working at a factory has a different economic impact than deporting 100 people at the moment they were trying to cross the border.

Re: CPI for all items rises 0.4% in August, 2.9% YoY; shelter and food up

#44

Post by UncleMeat »

jlongr wrote: post #35
m101 wrote: post #32

12*0.4% is 4.8% Inflation is running at an annualised 4.8%. The 2.9% number is backward looking. Sure monthly inflation is more volatile, but the direction of travel is up, and that running average of 2.9% will be increasing slowly as it incorporates the recent higher prints. Edit: the seasonally adjusted change is 0.4% actually, with the monthly change 0.3%

You concede that monthly inflation is volatile but then proceed to assume it is has grown uniformly and speculate that it will continue to grow uniformly? Umm...

The point is that the annual number is often rather confusing from a reporting perspective.

Re: CPI for all items rises 0.4% in August, 2.9% YoY; shelter and food up

#45

Post by buellerbueller »

gruez wrote: post #5
buellerbueller wrote: post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Will the cut really help pull the labor market up? The capitalists don't care about the labor market as much as they do the stock market. In Trump's crazy Tilt-a-Whirl Policy and Tariff Generator (TM), what business would invest in expansion beyond what is necessary to grease the palms that need greasing? Way too much uncertainty. Time for stock buybacks.

>what business would invest in expansion beyond what is necessary to grease the palms that need greasing? Way too much uncertainty. Time for stock buybacks. AI and AI related companies are the opposite of this.

You're right, as far as I can tell, which will help further wreck the labor market and juice the stocks for the capitalists.

AI companies are an existential threat to those who don't control the AIs. All of the "good AI" scenarios that the AIcolytes espouse assume we have bent AI to our whims permanently.

Re: CPI for all items rises 0.4% in August, 2.9% YoY; shelter and food up

#46

Post by jakelazaroff »

m101 wrote: post #32

12*0.4% is 4.8% Inflation is running at an annualised 4.8%. The 2.9% number is backward looking. Sure monthly inflation is more volatile, but the direction of travel is up, and that running average of 2.9% will be increasing slowly as it incorporates the recent higher prints. Edit: the seasonally adjusted change is 0.4% actually, with the monthly change 0.3%

Aren't you slightly undercounting? If inflation compounds, 0.4% inflation a month would be 1.004^12 = 4.9%.

Re: CPI for all items rises 0.4% in August, 2.9% YoY; shelter and food up

#47

Post by jghn »

tlogan wrote: post #10
shoo wrote: post #7

I've heard a few economists interviewed about the estimated impact of tariffs, an argument is that tariffs should lead to higher prices for US consumers, but as a one-time price increase, not a sustained level of price inflation. That said, it's curious that this CPI news release highlighted "shelter" as a driver: > The index for shelter rose 0.4 percent in August and was the largest factor in the all items monthly i…

My naive expectation was: - Rents would go down because deportation of illegals will reduce demand - Prices of goods would skyrocket because of tariffs But instead, rents went way up. Could this be driven by the push to return to the office?

> Rents would go down because deportation of illegals will reduce demand

The fact that anyone would think this could possibly be true is an indicator of how strong the propaganda machine is.

Re: CPI for all items rises 0.4% in August, 2.9% YoY; shelter and food up

#48

Post by skeezyboy »

9rx wrote: post #28
shoo wrote: post #7

I've heard a few economists interviewed about the estimated impact of tariffs, an argument is that tariffs should lead to higher prices for US consumers, but as a one-time price increase, not a sustained level of price inflation. That said, it's curious that this CPI news release highlighted "shelter" as a driver: > The index for shelter rose 0.4 percent in August and was the largest factor in the all items monthly i…

> an argument is that tariffs should lead to higher prices for US consumers At the same time, though, prices can never rise higher than the consumer is willing to pay. All else equal that ultimately needs to be true, but there are many variables that do not need to remain equal, so it is not a foregone conclusion. The 2022 food crisis offered pretty good motivation for consumers to pay more — people were truly worrie…

> At the same time, though, prices can never rise higher than the consumer is willing to pay.

ahhh, the naivety of youth. not only can they, they have.

Re: CPI for all items rises 0.4% in August, 2.9% YoY; shelter and food up

#49

Post by Workaccount2 »

Aurornis wrote: post #31
ACCount37 wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It also requires human labor, which isn't impacted by tariffs directly, but may be impacted by other government actions in the US. Such as the ongoing high profile crackdown on illegal immigrant labor.

Look at the actual deportation numbers. It’s barely on track to meet deportation rates from a decade ago. Don’t believe the political rhetoric. They’re making a big show and behaving poorly with the masks and other abuses, but they’re not actually doing abnormally high deportations. Note that any large country will have a steady flow of deportations due to basic enforcement of immigration laws.

The goal for them is to scare immigrants out of the country, make a spectacle of deporting 10 and hope another 20 get scared and self-deport, and another 100 decide not to try and illegally enter.

Re: CPI for all items rises 0.4% in August, 2.9% YoY; shelter and food up

#50

Post by [deleted] »

coldpie wrote: post #34
tlogan wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My naive expectation was: - Rents would go down because deportation of illegals will reduce demand - Prices of goods would skyrocket because of tariffs But instead, rents went way up. Could this be driven by the push to return to the office?

> My naive expectation was: > - Rents would go down because deportation of illegals will reduce demand This was indeed extremely naive. There are not enough people in the US illegally to be a significant factor in housing demand. I'd suggest no longer getting information from whatever source lead you to believe this.

[deleted]
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