81–90 of 121 posts
Earlier quoted context omitted.
You concede that monthly inflation is volatile but then proceed to assume it is has grown uniformly and speculate that it will continue to grow uniformly? Umm...
The point is that the annual number is often rather confusing from a reporting perspective.
This is patently wrong.
I've heard a few economists interviewed about the estimated impact of tariffs, an argument is that tariffs should lead to higher prices for US consumers, but as a one-time price increase, not a sustained level of price inflation. That said, it's curious that this CPI news release highlighted "shelter" as a driver: > The index for shelter rose 0.4 percent in August and was the largest factor in the all items monthly i…
And they’ll keep doing it, since calling that out isn’t politically beneficial.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
The point is that the annual number is often rather confusing from a reporting perspective.
And that an annual number is diluted and will only feed in slowly over time. If we knew inflation was permanently at 5% from now on, a blend with 2% for 11 months and 5% for 1 month, is not informative.
FED is caught between a rock and a hard place, in a double bind. Because of jobs data, it will 100% cut interest rates in the next 2-3 FED meetings with inflation clearly showing an upwards trend. US could print money for over a decade because of China exporting deflation to it and the world, now that China is an enemy, it's up for a rude awakening. Monetary policies matter, the Dollar will suffer great debasement (i…
>The country will become industrialized for the wrong reasons -- by becoming poorer. Trump is a populist. That is the goal. The elite will get hammered and the bottom will be pulled up. The country will be net poorer, but the bottom will be higher than it was before. At least that's how the plan is sold on paper.
As I've mentioned, industrialization will happen benefiting jobs for blue collars, but you'll have lots of inflation.
And inflation hurts a lot the poor, as they have little to zero discretionary income. It's like a sales tax, it affects the poor more than the rich, proportional to how much they have available to spend.
A country with lots of factories can't afford suburbs, F150s, houses (instead of small condos).
I know this because I live in Germany, and we do have factories, but the life you can afford working in one of them is much more humble than a construction worker in the US can already right now.
Americans will need to learn to live on cramped spaces and stuff that doesn't make sense, as they'll really hate it.
There's no way the US government will have money to maintain all that suburban infrastructure, huge defense expenses without being high in the value chain.
FED is caught between a rock and a hard place, in a double bind. Because of jobs data, it will 100% cut interest rates in the next 2-3 FED meetings with inflation clearly showing an upwards trend. US could print money for over a decade because of China exporting deflation to it and the world, now that China is an enemy, it's up for a rude awakening. Monetary policies matter, the Dollar will suffer great debasement (i…
>The country will become industrialized for the wrong reasons -- by becoming poorer. Trump is a populist. That is the goal. The elite will get hammered and the bottom will be pulled up. The country will be net poorer, but the bottom will be higher than it was before. At least that's how the plan is sold on paper.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
> an argument is that tariffs should lead to higher prices for US consumers At the same time, though, prices can never rise higher than the consumer is willing to pay. All else equal that ultimately needs to be true, but there are many variables that do not need to remain equal, so it is not a foregone conclusion. The 2022 food crisis offered pretty good motivation for consumers to pay more — people were truly worrie…
> At the same time, though, prices can never rise higher than the consumer is willing to pay. ahhh, the naivety of youth. not only can they, they have.
As we saw in 2022, fear of starvation is a pretty strong motivator to see consumers wanting to pay more to secure their spot in line. A random dude who likes to draw nude art for his friend saying everyone should pay more because of, uh, reasons... Not so much. That's not to say that sentiment cannot change, but without strong motivation there is no reason for it to happen any time soon.
100% odds the Fed cuts but inflation seems entrenched. Will the cut really help pull the labor market up? Tourism is down, AI is up, etc.
The tech sector labor bubble started popping last year. I don’t think we’ve hit bottom yet. Stocks are at an all time high riding the AI bubble but I think that too will pop despite the soft landing certain tech leaders will hope for.
This year is tariffs, trade wars, uncertainty, AI, labor markets, mass firings, mass deportations. Seems like we’re into a new phase of potential stagflation.
I've heard a few economists interviewed about the estimated impact of tariffs, an argument is that tariffs should lead to higher prices for US consumers, but as a one-time price increase, not a sustained level of price inflation. That said, it's curious that this CPI news release highlighted "shelter" as a driver: > The index for shelter rose 0.4 percent in August and was the largest factor in the all items monthly i…
My naive expectation was: - Rents would go down because deportation of illegals will reduce demand - Prices of goods would skyrocket because of tariffs But instead, rents went way up. Could this be driven by the push to return to the office?
Earlier quoted context omitted.
My naive expectation was: - Rents would go down because deportation of illegals will reduce demand - Prices of goods would skyrocket because of tariffs But instead, rents went way up. Could this be driven by the push to return to the office?
> Rents would go down because deportation of illegals will reduce demand Genuinely curious because I've never heard someone state this quite so credulously. How many people do you think are in the country illegally, that they're moving the housing market in a substantial way? In my experience seasonal farm workers (both with status and without) are usually housed in what are essentially dorms. These buildings are bor…
Pew research said 14 million in 2023: https://www.pewresearch.org/race-and-ethnicity/2025/08/21/u-...
Earlier quoted context omitted.
> At the same time, though, prices can never rise higher than the consumer is willing to pay. ahhh, the naivety of youth. not only can they, they have.
No. Can't happen. Saying "I will sell you this widget for no less than one billion dollars!" doesn't establish a price. Price is not determined until a voluntary transition takes place. And a voluntary transaction fundamentally cannot take place without a buyer willing to pay the transacted price. As we saw in 2022, fear of starvation is a pretty strong motivator to see consumers wanting to pay more to secure their s…
youre talking about market value. price is definitely set before the transaction takes place. you can set the price at whatever you like.