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Postal traffic to US down by over 80% amid tariffs, UN says

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Re: Postal traffic to US down by over 80% amid tariffs, UN says

#81

Post by bpt3 »

jmpman wrote: post #16
enraged_camel wrote: post #4

Like many others, I'm of the opinion that shit is about to hit the fan in terms of the economy. Too many alarm bells, too many attempts by the admin to cover up and distract from the pillars starting to show cracks. I hope the recession ends up being smaller in length and magnitude than the 2008-2009 recession because that one wrecked an entire generation in terms of wealth and psychology.

It feels like the US individual tax rates are on the left hand side of the larger curve especially for high earners. It’s especially to the left for estate taxes. If these were corrected to maximize revenue, I doubt we would have these gaps. Didn’t hear Elon proposing that.

The US has the most progressive income tax system in the developed world, and its middle and lower classes are probably the least taxed (due to the combination of the statement above and the lack of a VAT).

I'm not sure where this misconception comes from that the upper class of the US would be more highly taxed elsewhere, but it continues to pollute any attempts to have honest discussions about reform.

Re: Postal traffic to US down by over 80% amid tariffs, UN says

#82

Post by Arainach »

joenot443 wrote: post #72
chuckadams wrote: post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's no goal for the privatized USPS to actually be successful , only to destroy the public good. It's government, it works, so therefore it must be destroyed. This is really how Republicans think.

> it works, so therefore it must be destroyed. This is really how Republicans think I've been living here four years and met some really wonderful Americans, both Democrat and Republican, yet I don't think I've met a single one who thinks the way you're presenting. This seems like a pretty bleak way to view your country's politics, respectfully.

What voters think is largely irrelevant. Republican politicians campaign by claiming everything government does doesn't work, and once in office they do everything possible to ensure those claims become true.

Re: Postal traffic to US down by over 80% amid tariffs, UN says

#83

Post by michaelmrose »

orochimaaru wrote: post #6
enraged_camel wrote: post #4

Like many others, I'm of the opinion that shit is about to hit the fan in terms of the economy. Too many alarm bells, too many attempts by the admin to cover up and distract from the pillars starting to show cracks. I hope the recession ends up being smaller in length and magnitude than the 2008-2009 recession because that one wrecked an entire generation in terms of wealth and psychology.

If 80% of postal traffic was commercial and just being used to not pay duty/tariffs, then the tariffs are achieving what was intended. I don’t like the broad application of tariffs that is implemented today. They should have been better targeted. But this is one area where they are achieving what was intended.

Why would 80% of postal traffic NOT be commercial in a world with phones, video conferencing and email?

Re: Postal traffic to US down by over 80% amid tariffs, UN says

#84

Post by AnimalMuppet »

throwawayohio wrote: post #44
kilroy123 wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"History doesn’t repeat itself but it often rhymes." I think there will be a depression, not just a recession. I really hope I'm wrong.

I think you're right, unfortunately. Looking at the causes and the current actions of the US government (and, other governments worldwide tbh), this looks like an almost deliberate attempt to create a new class divide and supply of low-education workers. A depression would cement this. If you aren't already rich by the time it really kicks off, you probably won't make it out.

"Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by incompetence."

On the other hand, "Sufficiently advanced incompetence is indistinguishable from malice."

In the end, it doesn't matter whether these are incompetent or malicious people. These are people who are going to ruin a lot of lives around the world. The trick is, how do we get them out of power (in several countries) before they do too much damage?

Re: Postal traffic to US down by over 80% amid tariffs, UN says

#85

Post by sowbug »

mc32 wrote: post #40
croes wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

I agree that people overconsume "garbage." Indeed who needs 30 dolls or 30 Lego sets (Yes, I know Legos are not made in China, but never the less it's true). We don't need to revamp home decor every five years. What's wrong with having avocado green bathrooms or wood paneling in basements? Did the Russkies or Chinese communists ever feel like their people's housing needed new decor every few years? I doubt it. We cou…

The campaign talking point wasn't that Americans should consume less.

Re: Postal traffic to US down by over 80% amid tariffs, UN says

#86

Post by kmeisthax »

ehnto wrote: post #37
ants_everywhere wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Who are you imagining will step into the power vacuum if the US collapses economically?

China is by far the most likely candidate, if it navigates its aging demographic issue well.

The US has the same demographic issue. Actually, every potential successor to US hegemony has the same issue. The only reason why it doesn't show up in the birth rates as bad here is because America takes in (or, used to take in) lots of immigrants from countries that still have babies.

China takes in immigrants in numbers so tiny they might as well not have an immigration program. Either Korea is an authoritarian nightmare no one wants to immigrate to. Europe, and to a lesser extent Japan, takes in immigrants, fails to integrate them, and then engenders a bunch of far-right nutjobs calling for revocation of citizenship and other Hitlerwords. As a double irony, those immigrant communities also trend far-right, and the argument between the two is just big and little endianism[0].

The US was special in that it was the world's "backup democracy". Nobody is equipped to replace it.

OK, but why doesn't China just fix the demographic issue instead of papering over it with immigration? Well, we already know the fix: uninvent birth control and trick horny kids into having lots of teen pregnancies. That's the circumstances of life in places with high fertility rates. Except that it unambiguously sucks to live life in a human breeding farm. Having a bunch of kids with absentee parents is extremely destabilizing to the social fabric of a country. That's the shit Nixon did to the Black community to spark a crime wave. That's why there's so many people emigrating from countries with high birth rates. And if you're thinking of further rules to prevent that, well, congratulations. You've just reinvented medieval Christian sexual mores.

The cure is worse than the disease.

[0] As in, the factions from Gullivers' Travels, not the byte order of CPUs

Re: Postal traffic to US down by over 80% amid tariffs, UN says

#87

Post by 2b3a51 »

gpapilion wrote: post #24
jmclnx wrote: post #3

I wonder how that will impact the USPS ? I tend to think it will help their bottom line a bit due to the international price agreements many countries have. Now, UPS and FedeX and other such companies, I think they could be in for a world of hurt if this is really true and continues for a while.

I think that the private carriers are more likely to be helped by this, since they will manage the paperwork. It’s more likely a set of products that were shipping directly from factories disappears from the market. For example, the direct from factory Halloween costume. It could end up being a step backwards in living standards and access to daily luxuries.

Old man in a different country: we used to make Hallows'een costumes out of old shirts worn backwards and sacks and stuff. Yes, I'm going back half a century plus but it was fun and involved time with parents.

Best of luck.

Re: Postal traffic to US down by over 80% amid tariffs, UN says

#88

Post by baby_souffle »

jmyeet wrote: post #57

I suspect most of this is about the elimination of the de minimis exemption (which the article explains) rather than tariffs per se. A lot of countries previously had 10% tariffs and whether tariffs are 10% or 50% or 100%, that's just a number in a spreadsheet. You will have systems to collect and handle that regardless. But de minimis elimination suddenly means collecting tariffs on something you previously never di…

> But de minimis elimination suddenly means collecting tariffs on something you previously never did. That's new.

This is my bet, too.

De minimis was a good idea for high volume low value. Eliminating it is a dumb idea but the 800§ threshold was probably a bit too high.

Re: Postal traffic to US down by over 80% amid tariffs, UN says

#89

Post by forgotoldacc »

moduspol wrote: post #52
gsky wrote: post #51

Even tourists like me are afraid to visit america now. So much hatred

[flagged]

I don't think people fear what the media will do to them. People have rational fears about what some governments can do to them, and some governments are very eager to show their willingness to ruin people's lives.

People became afraid of visiting North Korea because one (1) person got arrested for committing a goofy crime. An American president even made it a crime for Americans to visit as a result of one (1) person facing legal repercussions for their crime. Maybe that fear is a result of bad media diet, but I don't think the fear of visiting NK is irrational.

Now consider a state that just arrested 400+ South Koreans and is holding them in brutal conditions. [1] Or even being a tourist and trying to leave but getting arrested. [2] The odds of something bad happening are far higher than if you'd chosen to visit North Korea. For a lot of people, that risk isn't worth whatever benefits, if any, travel might offer.

[1] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cj6xe5d6103o.amp

[2] https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/apr/05/i-was-a-brit...

Re: Postal traffic to US down by over 80% amid tariffs, UN says

#90

Post by DanielHB »

JJMcJ wrote: post #53
master_crab wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is affecting private carriers as well.

Friend ordered a widget from China. Needed for a project he was prototyping. Widget $30 Shipping $60 Shipped via DHL which did have the mechanisms in place to declare contents and pay the tariffs, but not for free. For people ordering tube socks off of AliBaba, the economics is entirely different and the result is not unexpected.

When Alibaba first became big I remember ordering stuff from there and it taking about one month and a half to arrive in Brazil. Turns out they packaged a lot of shipments together into a single cargo container and then distributed them internally within Brazil.

IMO it should go back to been that way. It is ridiculous to ship these small packages by air. I am not in favor of tariffs, but the shipping needs to be included in the bill.

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