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Postal traffic to US down by over 80% amid tariffs, UN says

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Re: Postal traffic to US down by over 80% amid tariffs, UN says

#11

Post by walterbell »

There's a six-month period for new systems to be implemented.

> 88 operators worldwide fully or partially suspending services, the Universal Postal Union.. said operators didn't have enough time to prepare for the changes, or to put in place mechanisms to collect the duties and establish a link with the relevant US authorities.. The agency is working on "the rapid development of a new technical solution that will help get mail moving to the United States again," UPU Director General Masahiko Metoki said

Re: Postal traffic to US down by over 80% amid tariffs, UN says

#13

Post by maxerickson »

orochimaaru wrote: post #6
enraged_camel wrote: post #4

Like many others, I'm of the opinion that shit is about to hit the fan in terms of the economy. Too many alarm bells, too many attempts by the admin to cover up and distract from the pillars starting to show cracks. I hope the recession ends up being smaller in length and magnitude than the 2008-2009 recession because that one wrecked an entire generation in terms of wealth and psychology.

If 80% of postal traffic was commercial and just being used to not pay duty/tariffs, then the tariffs are achieving what was intended. I don’t like the broad application of tariffs that is implemented today. They should have been better targeted. But this is one area where they are achieving what was intended.

Prior to the across the board tariffs, there mostly weren't tariffs to avoid.

The de minimus exception was for the administrative overhead rather than any tax.

Re: Postal traffic to US down by over 80% amid tariffs, UN says

#15

Post by davidw »

enraged_camel wrote: post #4

Like many others, I'm of the opinion that shit is about to hit the fan in terms of the economy. Too many alarm bells, too many attempts by the admin to cover up and distract from the pillars starting to show cracks. I hope the recession ends up being smaller in length and magnitude than the 2008-2009 recession because that one wrecked an entire generation in terms of wealth and psychology.

So what's everyone think is a good place for their money to be?

I'm pretty vexxed by this question. To me it seems obvious that a lot of what is happening is going to hurt, both short term (tariffs) and long term (destruction of the US advantage in science), but markets have kept going up and up.

Re: Postal traffic to US down by over 80% amid tariffs, UN says

#16

Post by jmpman »

enraged_camel wrote: post #4

Like many others, I'm of the opinion that shit is about to hit the fan in terms of the economy. Too many alarm bells, too many attempts by the admin to cover up and distract from the pillars starting to show cracks. I hope the recession ends up being smaller in length and magnitude than the 2008-2009 recession because that one wrecked an entire generation in terms of wealth and psychology.

It feels like the US individual tax rates are on the left hand side of the larger curve especially for high earners. It’s especially to the left for estate taxes. If these were corrected to maximize revenue, I doubt we would have these gaps. Didn’t hear Elon proposing that.

Re: Postal traffic to US down by over 80% amid tariffs, UN says

#17

Post by pessimizer »

enraged_camel wrote: post #4

Like many others, I'm of the opinion that shit is about to hit the fan in terms of the economy. Too many alarm bells, too many attempts by the admin to cover up and distract from the pillars starting to show cracks. I hope the recession ends up being smaller in length and magnitude than the 2008-2009 recession because that one wrecked an entire generation in terms of wealth and psychology.

It's long overdue. I'm not sure exactly how long bitcoin, tech stock speculation and private equity rollups were supposed to support an actual economy.

The question is whether you impose protectionism before or after you crater.

> I hope the recession ends up being smaller in length and magnitude than the 2008-2009 recession because that one wrecked an entire generation in terms of wealth and psychology.

It's going to be longer, and worse. Especially since there's no one in the ruling class that doesn't think that the way to get out of recessions is the massive-scale disinvestment that comes with austerity. We only got out of the last one because while America was preaching austerity, it was giving handouts to every wealthy person in America, while Europe was actually dumb enough to do austerity for real.

Upper-middle class people will be fine. During covid their wealth doubled through no particular effort of their own. It was just a gift from taxpayers to show them we love them.

Re: Postal traffic to US down by over 80% amid tariffs, UN says

#18

Post by mmastrac »

enraged_camel wrote: post #4

Like many others, I'm of the opinion that shit is about to hit the fan in terms of the economy. Too many alarm bells, too many attempts by the admin to cover up and distract from the pillars starting to show cracks. I hope the recession ends up being smaller in length and magnitude than the 2008-2009 recession because that one wrecked an entire generation in terms of wealth and psychology.

From someone outside the US (Canada) and in a country that's been abused by its giant next-door neighbour -- longer than just the current, explicit abuse -- I kinda hope this recession is deep and hurts badly.

We've already seen some huge, positive structural changes to our economy and a down-and-out, bleeding US will have nothing but positive effects for the rest of us.

I'd have some sympathy but this is an entirely self-inflicted wound and Americans could collectively use a bit of humility.

Re: Postal traffic to US down by over 80% amid tariffs, UN says

#19

Post by croes »

orochimaaru wrote: post #6
enraged_camel wrote: post #4

Like many others, I'm of the opinion that shit is about to hit the fan in terms of the economy. Too many alarm bells, too many attempts by the admin to cover up and distract from the pillars starting to show cracks. I hope the recession ends up being smaller in length and magnitude than the 2008-2009 recession because that one wrecked an entire generation in terms of wealth and psychology.

If 80% of postal traffic was commercial and just being used to not pay duty/tariffs, then the tariffs are achieving what was intended. I don’t like the broad application of tariffs that is implemented today. They should have been better targeted. But this is one area where they are achieving what was intended.

Postal traffic doesn’t mean no tariffs or duty, it just means it was shipped from outside the US.

But now it’s an unknown risk to ship because you don’t know if the tariffs you calculated when you send the package are the same as when it arrives.

Get used to empty shelves and less choices at a higher price.

Lose-Lose-Lose

Re: Postal traffic to US down by over 80% amid tariffs, UN says

#20

Post by master_crab »

kaitai wrote: post #14
jstummbillig wrote: post #5

That's what was supposed to happen, right?

There has long been a desire to privatize the USPS, so this also fits neatly into the narrative that the USPS should not be a public good.

This is affecting private carriers as well.
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