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Kenvue stock drops on report RFK Jr will link autism to Tylenol during pregnancy

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Re: Kenvue stock drops on report RFK Jr will link autism to Tylenol during pregnancy

#31

Post by ekianjo »

jeroenhd wrote: post #22
ekianjo wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> that's how I know it isn't. Until you have a controlled study on pregnant women who use and don't use the drug, you won't really know for sure.

Until we have a controlled study, we don't really know if using nouns causes autism either. We don't know what causes autism so everything is suspect. https://news.ki.se/no-link-between-paracetamol-use-during-pr... concludes that there is no link between acetaminophen and autism based on existing research. https://ehjournal.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12940-... concludes the opposite. I'm not qualified to det…

> We don't know what causes autism so everything is suspect.

Obviously what goes into your body should be suspected first, whether it's food, pollutants, or medical interventions.

Re: Kenvue stock drops on report RFK Jr will link autism to Tylenol during pregnancy

#32

Post by crote »

ekianjo wrote: post #31
jeroenhd wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Until we have a controlled study, we don't really know if using nouns causes autism either. We don't know what causes autism so everything is suspect. https://news.ki.se/no-link-between-paracetamol-use-during-pr... concludes that there is no link between acetaminophen and autism based on existing research. https://ehjournal.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12940-... concludes the opposite. I'm not qualified to det…

> We don't know what causes autism so everything is suspect. Obviously what goes into your body should be suspected first, whether it's food, pollutants, or medical interventions.

Why? Should we first suspect carrots of making people grow red hair, suspect eggs of causing pregnancy, and suspect Left Twix of causing left-handedness?

We don't know the cause of autism. We do know that autism has a heritable component, with significant rates of both siblings having it (which could be explained by environmental factors) and both parent and child having it (which cannot be explained by environmental factors). Surely it would make a lot more sense to suspect a genetic component first?

Re: Kenvue stock drops on report RFK Jr will link autism to Tylenol during pregnancy

#33

Post by crote »

Just one slight problem:

Tylenol was introduced in 1955. Autism was first scientifically documented in 1926. If Tylenol causes autism, how did those parents in the 1920s get their hands on it?

Also, wouldn't there been a clear link between Tylenol sales and the occurrence of autism? Where is the data showing that the adoption of Tylenol in the 1960s resulted in a rise in autism, and that the "rise" of autism in the 1990s is linked to an increase in Tylenol use?

Re: Kenvue stock drops on report RFK Jr will link autism to Tylenol during pregnancy

#34

Post by Voultapher »

jiggawatts wrote: post #21

If he’s right, we’ll know before the end of Trump’s term. How much are people willing to bet that the incidence of autism will remain unchanged and the administration will disavow everything. “Nobody knew autism was so complicated.” — future Trump, probably.

I think you are severely underestimating the mental gymnastics these people routinely go through to never be wrong about anything.

When you go to the doctor because you child is on the spectrum. "Fill out this form Mam", on it is the question "Did you take Tylenol during the pregnancy?"

- You check "Yes" -> Your fault, should have known better. No help for you.

- You check "No" -> Well then it can't be autism, that's "scientifically" proven. No help for you.

Re: Kenvue stock drops on report RFK Jr will link autism to Tylenol during pregnancy

#35

Post by kristianp »

Refreeze5224 wrote: post #2

If RFK Jr says it's true, that's how I know it isn't. They go to great lengths to point out they're "using gold-standard science", which also makes me certain they aren't. They can't be, because none of this is about autism or science, it's about pushing their political agenda.

> it's about pushing their political agenda.

I've seen this kind of thing mentioned before. As a non USA person, I don't know what the deal is with RFK and autism. Wasn't it vaccines last month?

Re: Kenvue stock drops on report RFK Jr will link autism to Tylenol during pregnancy

#36

Post by burnt-resistor »

Someone needs to find a new brain worm for the heroin junkie who dabbled in environmental law that gets him doing the right thing™ like:

- going after quacks who promote bleach, horse dewormers (maybe that's the problem), and raw milk

- adopt the precautionary principle

- approve EU sunscreen compounds without animal testing and banning reef/human unsafe ones

- leave science to scientists

- increase regulatory oversight over food manufacturing, additive, and supply chain regulation so there aren't canyons of non-enforcement or exclusions between FDA and USDA

Or, maybe, this is really radical... find someone else competent to do the job.

Re: Kenvue stock drops on report RFK Jr will link autism to Tylenol during pregnancy

#37

Post by reverius42 »

kristianp wrote: post #35
Refreeze5224 wrote: post #2

If RFK Jr says it's true, that's how I know it isn't. They go to great lengths to point out they're "using gold-standard science", which also makes me certain they aren't. They can't be, because none of this is about autism or science, it's about pushing their political agenda.

> it's about pushing their political agenda. I've seen this kind of thing mentioned before. As a non USA person, I don't know what the deal is with RFK and autism. Wasn't it vaccines last month?

It's about pushing general distrust of the medical/pharmaceutical establishment, in favor of folk wisdom, home remedies, and anything "natural".

Re: Kenvue stock drops on report RFK Jr will link autism to Tylenol during pregnancy

#38

Post by kashunstva »

Spivak wrote: post #17
avalys wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s simple, RFKj is a well-intentioned idiot.

Looking around for sources from before the world ended I can find quite a few reputable studies that show the correlation. The effect size is small ~0.4% in absolute risk but statistically detectable. Like okay, sure. Doctors already tell pregnant women to limit NSAIDs. So… we keep doing that. Mission accomplished?

The advice to avoid NSAIDs in pregnancy (and contraindication in the third trimester) doesn’t cover acetaminophen, though, because it’s not regarded as an NSAID (different mechanism of action and minimal anti-inflammatory effects.)

From a recent meta analysis, a total of 6 studies meeting the inclusion criteria addressed the association between acetaminophen exposure in utero and ASD. The odds ratio for the aggregated data was 1.19 which puts the 0.2-0.4% relative risk increase depending on what baseline incidence you assume (along the lines of your estimate.)

If you take the baseline incidence to be 1% then I calculate the NNH - number needed to harm, at 533, meaning you have to expose 533 pregnant women to acetaminophen to observe one additional case of ASD.

Given that the current public health administration of this era in the U.S. operates by seat-of-the-pants guidance rather than statistical evidence, the statistics are irrelevant to them. My advice would be that health care providers caring for pregnant women have an informed discussion about the risk and call it a day.

Re: Kenvue stock drops on report RFK Jr will link autism to Tylenol during pregnancy

#39

Post by kashunstva »

ekianjo wrote: post #5
Refreeze5224 wrote: post #2

If RFK Jr says it's true, that's how I know it isn't. They go to great lengths to point out they're "using gold-standard science", which also makes me certain they aren't. They can't be, because none of this is about autism or science, it's about pushing their political agenda.

> that's how I know it isn't. Until you have a controlled study on pregnant women who use and don't use the drug, you won't really know for sure.

> Until you have a controlled study on pregnant women

I wouldn’t look for a prospective randomized controlled trial of this anytime soon. Hard to imagine an IRB approving such a study.

Observational studies do suggest a small but statistically significant association between acetaminophen use in pregnancy and ASD, but the relative risk increase is small, because both the effect size and baseline risk are small.

Re: Kenvue stock drops on report RFK Jr will link autism to Tylenol during pregnancy

#40

Post by CogitoCogito »

spchampion2 wrote: post #4

Judging from the comments I've seen, nobody believes this because RFK has completely shot his credibility, and I don't blame them either. But it turns out there may actually be some emerging evidence to support this. This recent Harvard meta-analysis [1] from just last month looked at 46 different studies and suggested that there may actually be something happening here although it's not conclusive. Correlation but n…

The irony is that if Tylenol use in pregnancy actually does increase the risk of autism, RFK's destruction of trust in the government's scientific process will probably just push that sort result back. He's a charlatan and totally unscientific regardless.

Luckily for those of us who care, there are private and foreign government organizations who still take healthcare and science seriously. Unfortunately the only sane solution seems to be to ignore the US authorities on this for the time being.

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