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Where's the shovelware? Why AI coding claims don't add up

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Re: Where's the shovelware? Why AI coding claims don't add up

#271

Earlier quoted context omitted.

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Look this isn't a forum for general advocacy of Marxist political thought, it just isn't. That's off topic.

Whereas it IS a forum for discussing the biggest tech court case of the century.

The site was not established to give equal time to all political ideologies in all threads, which is what you seem to be implying.

This is all in the Hacker News guidelines. Let me paste the relevant part for you since you don't seem to know about it:

Hacker News Guidelines

What to Submit

On-Topic: Anything that good hackers would find interesting. That includes more than hacking and startups. If you had to reduce it to a sentence, the answer might be: anything that gratifies one's intellectual curiosity.

Off-Topic: Most stories about politics, or crime, or sports, or celebrities, unless they're evidence of some interesting new phenomenon. Videos of pratfalls or disasters, or cute animal pictures. If they'd cover it on TV news, it's probably off-topic.

Re: Where's the shovelware? Why AI coding claims don't add up

#273
post #198

I used to be a full-time developer back in the day. Then I was a manager. Then I was a CTO. I stopped doing the day-to-day development and even stopped micro-managing the detailed design. When I tried to code again, I found I didn't really have the patience for it -- having to learn new frameworks, APIs, languages, tricky little details, I used to find it engrossing: it had become annoying. But with tools like Claude…

If you’re a CTO who can no longer program, the solution isn’t to use AI to program again; the solution is to hire people who can program. The question at hand is whether AI helps your developers, not whether it helps you. You’re the CTO. It’s not your job to program.

Some of the projects I've been doing are for myself in other businesses, automating processes that were time consuming or... annoying.

Others are for start-ups that are pre-money, pre-revenue where I can build things myself without having to deal with hiring people.

In a larger organization, certainly I'd delegate to other people, but if it's just for me or new unfunded start-ups, this is working out very well.

And it's not that I "can no longer program". I could program, it's just that I don't find the nuts and bolts of it as interesting as I used to and am more focused on functionality, algorithm, and UI.

Re: Where's the shovelware? Why AI coding claims don't add up

#275
post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'd like to see those SVPs and PMs, or shit, even a line manager use AI to implement something as simple as a 2-month intern project [1] in a week. --- [1] We generally budget about half an intern's time for finding the coffee machine, learning how to show up to work on time, going on a fun event with the other interns to play minigolf, discovering that unit tests exist, etc, etc.

I'd rather see those SVPs, PMs, and line managers be turned into AI.

This is the way

Re: Where's the shovelware? Why AI coding claims don't add up

#276

These claims wouldn't matter if the topic weren't so deadly serious. Tech leaders everywhere are buying into the FOMO, convinced their competitors are getting massive gains they're missing out on. This drives them to rebrand as AI-First companies, justify layoffs with newfound productivity narratives, and lowball developer salaries under the assumption that AI has fundamentally changed the value equation. This is my…

> My manager told me that the time to deliver my latest project was cut to 20% of the original estimate That's insane. Who the hell pulls a number out of their ass and declares it the new reality? When it doesn't happen, he'll pin the blame on you, but everyone else above will pin the blame on him . He's the one who will get fired. Laying off unnecessary developers is the answer if LLMs turn out to make us all so muc…

The whole 'startup/scaleup' culture (which have become the industry titans of today) - is insane and have been insane for as long as it has been a thing - the culture of either 'just grow and figure out how to monetize'(Social media, food delivery etc.) or 'we're selling you this technology that doesn't exist yet but going to be insanely valuable in the future (AGI, self driving)' or 'we're selling shovels to the first 2' (cloud providers, Nvidia) has been insane.

I'd argue that compared to a decade. 15 years ago, relatively little value has been created. If you sat down in front of a 15 yo computer, or tried to solve a technical challenge with the tooling of 15-10 years ago, I don't think you'd get a significantly worse result.

Yet in this time the US has doubled its GDP, most of it owning to the top, to the tech professionals and financiers who benefited from this.

And some of this money went into assets with constrained supplies, such as housing, marking up the prices adjusted for inflation, making average people that much worse off.

While I do feel society is making progress, it's been a slow and steady march. Which in relative terms means slowing. Of I gave you $10 every week, by week 2, you'd double your wealth, by the end of the year, you almost didn't notice the increase.

Technology accumulation is the same, I'd argue it's even worse, since building on top of existing stuff has a cost proportional to the complexity for a fixed unit of gain (and features get proportionally less valuable as you implement the most important ones first).

Sorry got distracted from my main point - what happens when people stop believing that these improvements are meanigful or that technology that was priced in to produce 100x the value will come at all (and more importantly the company you're invested in will be able to caputre it)?

Re: Where's the shovelware? Why AI coding claims don't add up

#277
post #111

There's also the questionable copyright/IP angle. As an analogy, can you imagine being a startup that hired a developer, and months later finding out the bulk of the new Web app they "coded" for you was actually copy&pasted open source code, loosely obfuscated, which they were passing it off as something they developed, and to which the company had IP rights? You'd immediately convene the cofounders and a lawyer, abo…

On other side I wonder how long until we get fist IP theft case. And in discovery all the logs with all chatbots are requested. And the end result is that well it was mostly AI produced so no copy right protection so no damages...

Re: Where's the shovelware? Why AI coding claims don't add up

#278
LLM-powered shovelware sits in the same box as coke-induced business ideas. Both give you the dopamine rush of being “on top of it” until the magic wears off and you’re scrubbing your apartment floor with a toothbrush at 4 AM, or stuck debugging a DB migration that Claude Code has been mangling for five hours straight.

Re: Where's the shovelware? Why AI coding claims don't add up

#279

These claims wouldn't matter if the topic weren't so deadly serious. Tech leaders everywhere are buying into the FOMO, convinced their competitors are getting massive gains they're missing out on. This drives them to rebrand as AI-First companies, justify layoffs with newfound productivity narratives, and lowball developer salaries under the assumption that AI has fundamentally changed the value equation. This is my…

My opinion is that AI isn’t actually the root of the problem here. It’s that we are heading towards a big recession. As in all recessions, people come up with all sorts of reasons why everything is fine until it can’t be denied anymore. This time, AI was a useful narrative to have lying around.

I think a kind of AI complacency has set in. Companies are just in chill mode right now, laying off people here and there while waiting for AI to get good enough to do actual work.
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