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Anthropic raises $13B Series F

anthropic.com

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Re: Anthropic raises $13B Series F

#591

Post by fancyfredbot »

utyop22 wrote: post #455
fancyfredbot wrote: post #420

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I see two of nineteen investors were also invested in FTX (Insight and Ontario teachers). With hindsight that's a bad investment although they probably recovered their money here so probably not their worst. Does this actually tell you they are stupid or insane? I think that's one possible interpretation but another is that these funds choose to allocate a controlled portion of their capital toward high risk investme…

They recovered their money but what about the opportunity cost? Its actually an economic loss. In retrospect given the risk it was a pretty terrible investment.

Agree - as I said it's a bad investment with hindsight.

If you don't have hindsight then passing on FTX probably implies passing on some successful opportunities too. So another opportunity cost and possibly a larger one.

Re: Anthropic raises $13B Series F

#593

Post by AbstractH24 »

code4tee wrote: post #65

Impressive round but it seems unlikely this game can go on much longer before something implodes. Given the amount of cash you need to set of fire to stay relevant it’s becoming nearly impossible for all but a few players to stay competitive, but those players have yet to demonstrate a viable business model. With all these models converging, the big players aren’t demonstrating a real technical innovation moat. Every…

Where are we in that cycle though? How close to the top?

Re: Anthropic raises $13B Series F

#594

Post by lelanthran »

elbear wrote: post #587
lelanthran wrote: post #559

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>> > The creation of wealth comes from trade, [...] > I'm not sure to what extent you meant this, but I don't know that I'd agree with it. At a very foundational level, all wealth comes from trade, even when there is no currency involved. When two parties voluntarily make a trade, each party gets more value out of the trade than they had before, so the sum total of value after the trade is, by definition alone, great…

There are people who trade at a deficit just because they believe that's the only viable option. They see commerce as a zero-sum game.

> There are people who trade at a deficit just because they believe that's the only viable option.

It's not a deficit if the value they assign to what they get is higher than the value they assign to what they give.

If they are giving away something they value highly for something they value less highly, then it's not a voluntary trade, now is it?

Re: Anthropic raises $13B Series F

#595

Post by rsynnott »

3uler wrote: post #541
slashdave wrote: post #461

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> can raise $13B at a 20x revenue valuation is not the bubble indicator you think it is. What a minute. Isn't this the very definition of a bubble?

20x earnings is not that insane for a fast growing startup. Now Tesla and Palantir at 100x earnings is insane.

20x _earnings_ wouldn’t be, but that’s not what we’re talking.

Re: Anthropic raises $13B Series F

#596

Post by rsynnott »

arduanika wrote: post #195
Symmetry wrote: post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Proudly proclaiming on the Conversations With Tyler podcast that given a double or nothing bet with a 51% chance of success he'd keep playing forever.

It is probably just a coincidence, but it's darkly funny how well this lines up with the strategy described in a rather infamous LessWrong post. The title is "Solutions to the Altruist's burden: the Quantum Billionaire Trick", but you probably know it by a different name. The author is one Roko Mijic.

Probably not a total confidence; it’s EA/rationalist theory taken to ludicrous extremes in both cases.

Re: Anthropic raises $13B Series F

#597

Post by Razengan »

psychoslave wrote: post #335
Razengan wrote: post #221

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Barely 50 years ago computers used to cost a million dollars and were less powerful than your phone's SIM card. > GPT-4 training was what, $100M? GPT-5/Opus-4 class probably $1B+? Your brain? Basically free *(not counting time + food) Disruption in this space will come from whomever can replicate analog neurons in a better way. Maybe one day you'll be able to Matrix information directly into your brain and know kung-…

Yeah, no hate for kung fu here, but maybe learning to better communicate together, act in ways that allows everyone to thrive in harmony and spread peace among all humanity might be a better thing to start incorporating, might not it?

It's literally a scene from The Matrix.

Re: Anthropic raises $13B Series F

#598

Post by aqme28 »

utyop22 wrote: post #432
aqme28 wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I thought ~20x or so was a good baseline earnings multiple. I have no idea what makes sense as a revenue multiple but I bet it would be a lot lower than that. Edit: After looking it up, normal P/Sales ratios are on the order of about 1. They vary from like .2 to 8 depending on industry.

You're comparing the value of equity to firm earnings? Lol. I don't really bother calling out most financial stuff on here since I can't be bothered but come on. Its not internally consistent, at all.

No, I'm calling out the person who is comparing those things.

Re: Anthropic raises $13B Series F

#599

Post by DSingularity »

tedivm wrote: post #375
AlexandrB wrote: post #309

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The whole LLM era is horrible. All the innovation is coming "top-down" from very well funded companies - many of them tech incumbents, so you know the monetization is going to be awful. Since the models are expensive to run it's all subscription priced and has to run in the cloud where the user has no control. The hype is insane, and so usage is being pushed by C-suite folks who have no idea whether it's actually ben…

This is only if you ignore the growing open source models. I'm running Qwen3-30B at home and it works great for most of the use cases I have. I think we're going to find that the optimizations coming from companies out of China are going to continue making local LLMs easier for folks to run.

What hardware do you use ?

Re: Anthropic raises $13B Series F

#600

Post by cruffle_duffle »

criemen wrote: post #394
code4tee wrote: post #65

Impressive round but it seems unlikely this game can go on much longer before something implodes. Given the amount of cash you need to set of fire to stay relevant it’s becoming nearly impossible for all but a few players to stay competitive, but those players have yet to demonstrate a viable business model. With all these models converging, the big players aren’t demonstrating a real technical innovation moat. Every…

I'm not so confident in that yet. If you look at the inference prices Anthropic charges (on the API) it's not a race to the bottom - they are asking for what I feel is a lot of money - yet people keep paying that.

Their employers are paying that money. The jury is still out on how wisely that money is being spent.
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