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Anthropic raises $13B Series F

anthropic.com

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Re: Anthropic raises $13B Series F

#191

Post by ACCount37 »

xnx wrote: post #139
ACCount37 wrote: post #123

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The raw model scale is not increasing by much lately. AI companies are constrained by what fits in this generation of hardware, and waiting for the next generation to become available. Models that are much larger than the current frontier are still too expensive to train, and far too expensive to serve them en masse. In the meanwhile, "better data", "better training methods" and "more training compute" are the main w…

> AI companies are constrained by what fits in this generation of hardware, and waiting for the next generation to become available. Does this apply to Google that is using custom built TPUs while everyone else uses stock Nvidia?

By all accounts, what's in Google's racks right now (TPU v5e, v6e) is vaguely H100-adjacent, in both raw performance and supported model size.

If Google wants anything better than that? They, too, have to wait for the new hardware to arrive. Chips have a lead time - they may be your own designs, but you can't just wish them into existence.

Re: Anthropic raises $13B Series F

#192

Post by xpe »

fidotron wrote: post #165

That's now between an entire Instagram and WhatsApp acquisition cost. It's hard to escape the conclusion this is dumb money jumping on a bandwagon. To justify the expected returns here requires someone to make a transformer like leap again, and that doesn't take spending huge amounts in one place, but funding a lot more speculative thinkers.

I don’t like to think of predicting the future as “a conclusion” of some assumptions. I don’t think it puts you in a frame of mind such that you’re genuinely curious.

Re: Anthropic raises $13B Series F

#195

Post by arduanika »

Symmetry wrote: post #74
stravant wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That assumes he would have stopped with the shenanigans, which is a pretty big if.

Proudly proclaiming on the Conversations With Tyler podcast that given a double or nothing bet with a 51% chance of success he'd keep playing forever.

It is probably just a coincidence, but it's darkly funny how well this lines up with the strategy described in a rather infamous LessWrong post. The title is "Solutions to the Altruist's burden: the Quantum Billionaire Trick", but you probably know it by a different name. The author is one Roko Mijic.

Re: Anthropic raises $13B Series F

#196

Post by AlienRobot »

llamasushi wrote: post #22

The compute moat is getting absolutely insane. We're basically at the point where you need a small country's GDP just to stay in the game for one more generation of models. What gets me is that this isn't even a software moat anymore - it's literally just whoever can get their hands on enough GPUs and power infrastructure. TSMC and the power companies are the real kingmakers here. You can have all the talent in the w…

I saw a story posted on reddit that U.S. engineers went to China and said the U.S. would lose the A.I. game because THE ENERGY GRID was much worse than China's.

That's just pure insanity to me.

It's not even Internet speed or hardware. It's literally not having enough electricity. What is going on with the world...

Re: Anthropic raises $13B Series F

#197

Post by mrtesthah »

brandall10 wrote: post #42
bambax wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Probably would have made his crimes less visible, but not less criminal.

Let's not pretend there aren't multitudes out there doing similar things who never get caught. SBF was just more egregious and untimely w/ his actions.

If you know of other SBFs, please name them so that we can call for their investigation and prosecution.

Re: Anthropic raises $13B Series F

#198

Post by nathan_douglas »

tdullien wrote: post #85
StopDisinfo910 wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Alphabet 2024 revenue: 350 billions dollars Anthropic 2024 revenue: 1 billion dollars Unreasonable doesn’t even start to capture it. Anthropic being worth 10% of Alphabet is beyond insane.

It's just off by a factor of 35?

A rounding error, really.

Re: Anthropic raises $13B Series F

#199

Post by tinyhouse »

aqme28 wrote: post #33
tinyhouse wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is the fastest-growing company by revenue, jumping from $1B to $3B in just five months. Hitting $10B is only a matter of time, which would put its valuation at a reasonable ~18x sales multiple. It doesn't even matter where we are in the AI hype cycle - AI adoption will keep increasing, it's not even a question at this point. From a technical perspective, they manage to attract top talent - Google / OpenAI lose a…

I thought ~20x or so was a good baseline earnings multiple. I have no idea what makes sense as a revenue multiple but I bet it would be a lot lower than that. Edit: After looking it up, normal P/Sales ratios are on the order of about 1. They vary from like .2 to 8 depending on industry.

You should check a few software companies that are publicly traded. Figma for example is at P/S ~38 multiple currently. Google at 6.8. If Anthropic would've done an IPO today they would probably be at ~100 given where Figma is.
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