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Anthropic raises $13B Series F

anthropic.com

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Re: Anthropic raises $13B Series F

#231

Post by ryukoposting »

bradley13 wrote: post #201

Throwing money and compute at AI strikes me as a very short-term solution. In the end, the human brain does not run off a nuclear power plant, not even when we are learning. I expect the next breakthroughs to be all about efficiency. Granted, that could be tomorrow, or in 5 years, and the AI companies have to stay all at in the meantime.

This is roughly where I am on the matter. If the energy costs stay massive, your investment in AI is really just a bet that energy production will get cheaper. If the energy costs fall, so does the moat that keeps valuations like this one afloat.

If there's a step-function breakthrough in efficiency, it's far more likely to be on the model side than on the semiconductor side. Even then, investing in the model companies only makes sense if you think one of them is going to be able to keep that innovation within their walls. Otherwise, you run into the same moat-draining problem.

Re: Anthropic raises $13B Series F

#232

Post by darepublic »

duxup wrote: post #34
llamasushi wrote: post #22

The compute moat is getting absolutely insane. We're basically at the point where you need a small country's GDP just to stay in the game for one more generation of models. What gets me is that this isn't even a software moat anymore - it's literally just whoever can get their hands on enough GPUs and power infrastructure. TSMC and the power companies are the real kingmakers here. You can have all the talent in the w…

It's not clear to me that each new generation of models is going to be "that" much better vs cost. Anecdotally moving from model to model I'm not seeing huge changes in many use cases. I can just pick an older model and often I can't tell the difference... Video seems to be moving forward fast from what I can tell, but it sounds like the back end cost of compute there is skyrocketing with it raising other questions.

I hope you're right.

Re: Anthropic raises $13B Series F

#234

Post by wslh »

duxup wrote: post #34
llamasushi wrote: post #22

The compute moat is getting absolutely insane. We're basically at the point where you need a small country's GDP just to stay in the game for one more generation of models. What gets me is that this isn't even a software moat anymore - it's literally just whoever can get their hands on enough GPUs and power infrastructure. TSMC and the power companies are the real kingmakers here. You can have all the talent in the w…

It's not clear to me that each new generation of models is going to be "that" much better vs cost. Anecdotally moving from model to model I'm not seeing huge changes in many use cases. I can just pick an older model and often I can't tell the difference... Video seems to be moving forward fast from what I can tell, but it sounds like the back end cost of compute there is skyrocketing with it raising other questions.

> Anecdotally moving from model to model I'm not seeing huge changes in many use cases. I can just pick an older model and often I can't tell the difference...

Model specialization. For example a model with legal knowledge based on [private] sources not used until now.

Re: Anthropic raises $13B Series F

#235

Post by bpodgursky »

bambax wrote: post #21
jdoliner wrote: post #5

Every round Anthropic raises twists the knife deeper in SBF. If only he could have survived the downturn his Antropic investment alone probably could have papered over the other loses.

Probably would have made his crimes less visible, but not less criminal.

Yes but investors being whole and profitable would almost certainly have not resulted in jail time. He probably would have even had enough unquestionably personal returns to pay back any misappropriated funds in a negotiated settlement, if they even come to light at all.

Re: Anthropic raises $13B Series F

#236

Post by toomuchtodo »

hnav wrote: post #105
toomuchtodo wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Like Martin Shkreli, who made his investors whole with his gambling, but still went to jail.

He went to jail because his autism wouldn't allow him to be duplicitous like a CEO doing evil things has to be and he attracted too much negative attention.

Also true.

Re: Anthropic raises $13B Series F

#237

Post by kdmtctl »

derefr wrote: post #208
duxup wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not clear to me that each new generation of models is going to be "that" much better vs cost. Anecdotally moving from model to model I'm not seeing huge changes in many use cases. I can just pick an older model and often I can't tell the difference... Video seems to be moving forward fast from what I can tell, but it sounds like the back end cost of compute there is skyrocketing with it raising other questions.

> Anecdotally moving from model to model I'm not seeing huge changes in many use cases. Probably because you're doing things that are hitting mostly the "well-established" behaviors of these models — the ones that have been stable for at least a full model-generation now, that the AI bigcorps are currently happy keeping stable (since they achieved 100% on some previous benchmark for those behaviors, and changing them…

You have just described a singularity point for this line of business. Which could happen. Or not.

Re: Anthropic raises $13B Series F

#239

Post by Workaccount2 »

derefr wrote: post #208
duxup wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not clear to me that each new generation of models is going to be "that" much better vs cost. Anecdotally moving from model to model I'm not seeing huge changes in many use cases. I can just pick an older model and often I can't tell the difference... Video seems to be moving forward fast from what I can tell, but it sounds like the back end cost of compute there is skyrocketing with it raising other questions.

> Anecdotally moving from model to model I'm not seeing huge changes in many use cases. Probably because you're doing things that are hitting mostly the "well-established" behaviors of these models — the ones that have been stable for at least a full model-generation now, that the AI bigcorps are currently happy keeping stable (since they achieved 100% on some previous benchmark for those behaviors, and changing them…

>Mostly this is inside-baseball stuff to "make the model better as a tool for enhancing the model"

Last week I put GPT-5 and Gemini 2.5 in a conversation with each other about a topic of GPT-5's choosing. What did it pick?

Improving LLMs.

The conversation was far over my head, but the two seemed to be readily able to get deep into the weeds on it.

I took it as a pretty strong signal that they have an extensive training set of transformer/LLM tech.

Re: Anthropic raises $13B Series F

#240

Post by pembrook »

delfinom wrote: post #214
fullshark wrote: post #173

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And they also realize they don't need to be fantastic investments to pay off, they just need to IPO/be acquired at a higher share price.

RIP our 401ks that will end up being the bagholders when its dumped on the market.

Your 401k is going to be fine, nobody goes public anymore until they're a big, dumb, boring, profitable company and all of the risk+returns have been rung out.

Too many normies betting their life savings without understanding this risk in prior bubbles, so we regulated away the ability for non-institutional investors to take venture risk at all.

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