101–110 of 661 posts
[1]https://www.reuters.com/technology/openai-tells-investor-not...
The compute moat is getting absolutely insane. We're basically at the point where you need a small country's GDP just to stay in the game for one more generation of models. What gets me is that this isn't even a software moat anymore - it's literally just whoever can get their hands on enough GPUs and power infrastructure. TSMC and the power companies are the real kingmakers here. You can have all the talent in the w…
It's not clear to me that each new generation of models is going to be "that" much better vs cost. Anecdotally moving from model to model I'm not seeing huge changes in many use cases. I can just pick an older model and often I can't tell the difference... Video seems to be moving forward fast from what I can tell, but it sounds like the back end cost of compute there is skyrocketing with it raising other questions.
The compute moat is getting absolutely insane. We're basically at the point where you need a small country's GDP just to stay in the game for one more generation of models. What gets me is that this isn't even a software moat anymore - it's literally just whoever can get their hands on enough GPUs and power infrastructure. TSMC and the power companies are the real kingmakers here. You can have all the talent in the w…
Just in case, can they be repurposed for bitcoin mining? :) Edit: for the curious, no. An H100 costs about ~25k and produces $1.2/day mining bitcoin. Without factoring in electricity.
The compute moat is getting absolutely insane. We're basically at the point where you need a small country's GDP just to stay in the game for one more generation of models. What gets me is that this isn't even a software moat anymore - it's literally just whoever can get their hands on enough GPUs and power infrastructure. TSMC and the power companies are the real kingmakers here. You can have all the talent in the w…
In this imaginary timeline where initial investments keep increasing this way, how long before we see a leak shutter a company? Once the model is out, no one would pay for it, right?
And if LLMs don't keep getting qualitatively more capable every few months, that means that all this investment won't pay off and people will soon just use some open weights for everything.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Probably would have made his crimes less visible, but not less criminal.
Like Martin Shkreli, who made his investors whole with his gambling, but still went to jail.
The compute moat is getting absolutely insane. We're basically at the point where you need a small country's GDP just to stay in the game for one more generation of models. What gets me is that this isn't even a software moat anymore - it's literally just whoever can get their hands on enough GPUs and power infrastructure. TSMC and the power companies are the real kingmakers here. You can have all the talent in the w…
In this imaginary timeline where initial investments keep increasing this way, how long before we see a leak shutter a company? Once the model is out, no one would pay for it, right?
FTX creditors should be seeing red. the trustee sold Anthropic out at the bottom. Same for crypto. Hindsight is 20-20, but imagine had CZ not made those tweets of divesting from the FTT token. FTX could have possibly weathered the final 3 months of the BTC bear market and then reaped the post-2023 AI and crypto bull market. Sam would have gone from pauper in jail to brilliant investor in Anthropic, mogul, and so on.
I feel like the money itself makes less and less sense these days. It's just numbers that are becoming increasingly detached from the real world
The real world sees no other opportunities for outsized returns. Too much money chasing too little opportunity.
I feel like the money itself makes less and less sense these days. It's just numbers that are becoming increasingly detached from the real world
If I had a dime for every time I see this kind of hot take, I'd be able to buy an H200 with that. A man looks at economics. Understands nothing. Thinks it must be all fake and made up. He must be so smart for seeing it through!
Btw there's a decentish board game called Modern Art based around the pricing of art with no intrinsic value.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
alphabet is "worth" 2.45 trillion on the public market, is anthropic worth a bit less than 10% of google going forward? I don't think that's entirely unreasonable...
Alphabet 2024 revenue: 350 billions dollars Anthropic 2024 revenue: 1 billion dollars Unreasonable doesn’t even start to capture it. Anthropic being worth 10% of Alphabet is beyond insane.
Right now nobody wants to be the first to offer advertising in LLM services, but LLM conversation history provides a wealth of data for ad targeting. And in more permissive jurisdictions you can have the LLM deliver ads organically in the conversation or just shift the opinions and biases of the model through a short mention in the system message