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AI adoption linked to 13% decline in jobs for young U.S. workers: study

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Re: AI adoption linked to 13% decline in jobs for young U.S. workers: study

#521

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Video and graphical designers? I’m not saying this with optimism, but rather as as observation. I know a handful of digital marketers, that work for different marketing firms - and the use of GenAI for those tasks have exploded. Usually tasks which they either had in-house people, or freelancers do the work. Now they just do it themselves.

No it can't replace graphical designers except in low stakes projects. Companies won't risk their projects on cheap AI with other larger costs on the line.

Already happening, for a solid couple of years now. AI slop on billboards, busses, newspapers, etc. is a daily occurrence now.

Obviously companies like Apple isn’t going to cut corners straight away, but small and medium sized companies? Already doing it.

Re: AI adoption linked to 13% decline in jobs for young U.S. workers: study

#522

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It could be. But I worked at companies where we had full time employees all around the world, all of whom had full access to the same information the rest of us had. And I still saw this behavior generally. There were of course exceptions. Interestingly the biggest exceptions were ones that had at some point lived and worked in the USA, and then had returned to their home country for some reason or another. > I have…

I think what you saw is more related to work/life balance than any innate difference in people. That's certainly my experience. Employment is central to American's identity in a way that's almost considered perverse elsewhere.

Exactly!!

Its also like, no I don't think a family is supposed to be where some guy on the top extracts all the money and then trickes it down and I get %'s of what I did. This doesn't sound like a family.

Someone create a blog post on this phenomenon as to me, this seems like americans having an parasocial bond with companies (I vaguely remember the stripe CEO had said my name once or something along that lines, a blog post and it felt parasocial man)

I mean, I just feel like americans complaining about indians devs are complaining about the wrong things, like maybe I don't get them but its not true as to what they are saying. I just don't get it man.

I have seen Indian govt jobs to be much more like american private jobs in the sense that employment becomes central to their identity and there is this sense of tightknit community for the most part and maybe that has to do with the fact that the govt isn't usually exploiting its own workers and the tight knit sense of community comes from helping really poor children in teaching, building roads that my uncle flexes on me that I built this road or this college and showing me the absolute chad he sometimes is.

Re: AI adoption linked to 13% decline in jobs for young U.S. workers: study

#523
post #480

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is a career path, but it 1) is a path that only works for a small amount of people, most people don't earn anything like that 2) requires a special kind of personality and set of skills 3) is subject to the whim of algorithms 4) requires brand building over time but can be destroyed overnight for many reasons. Most "regular" jobs are much more stable.

Not so long ago people who played with programming and computers were wasting their time and potential, disappointed their parents and would have been better off getting a "regular" job.

Sure but your comment does not address all those facts that I said. So many jobs were unstable and remain unstable over the past 20 years.

Re: AI adoption linked to 13% decline in jobs for young U.S. workers: study

#524
post #456

This past year, I’ve seen a lot of entry-level jobs quietly disappear. It’s not that people are getting laid off, it’s that no one’s hiring beginners anymore. What’s really missing isn’t just the jobs, it’s the chance to grow. If there’s nowhere to start, how are new people supposed to get in and learn?

Were there ever that many low-level Junior jobs though? In my experience, almost everyone in college would get an internship Junior / Senior year and convert into an FTE after graduation. Those that were not so talented or not so lucky usually struggled to find work, taking many months to finally land a job. Most typically at a Booz Allen Hamilton type of place that was just throwing bodies into seats. At all of my e…

I got out of school 15 years ago so its been a while now, but at that time there were a ton of junior roles.

I got a CS bachelors from a decent state school, nothing fancy, and everyone I kept in touch with had found an entry level role pretty quickly after graduation.

I did do an internship and had an offer from them, but the psy was pretty low and I really didn't want to move where they were. It was a bit stressful turning that down early senior year without a backup yet, but I ended up with quite a few interviews and an offer before graduation.

Re: AI adoption linked to 13% decline in jobs for young U.S. workers: study

#525
post #212

AI is the popular cover excuse for layoffs. I can’t think of a single job that modern AI could easily replace.

I used to hire someone who worked part time from home to bookmark some of the key pages in thousands of pdfs just so that I can directly jump to those pages instead of spending time myself on finding those pages. AI can now do it very cheap so no need to give that job to a human anymore.

I know I have dozens of tasks like that but I can’t seem to think of them when I’m wondering what to do with AI!

Re: AI adoption linked to 13% decline in jobs for young U.S. workers: study

#526

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As a US-based developer I do not feel threatened by the "cheap" offshore developers I encounter. I've repeatedly been hired to clean up after offshore developers who: * lied about their capabilities/experience to get the job, * failed to grok requirements through the language barrier, * were unable to fix critical bugs in their own code base, * committed buggy chatgpt output verbatim, * and could not be held liable b…

I've worked alongside (but never with) offshore developers, often from the big consultancy companies. One thing they tend to do is place one competent developer and a dozen less-so, so that the work gets done by the one but they get paid for a dozen people. But I also believe the managers hiring offshore employees are fully aware of this. If they aren't then they're not very good managers and/or have no idea what the…

Yes this is the agency model here in Croatia. You would get one senior developer covering 2-3 projects and a few junior/mid developers working full time.

I have a feeling it's not working that well anymore because the people covering those juniors just earn more going to work straight for the client and they have less burden on them. Used to be harder so the agencies had leverage, nowadays even big companies will hire individual B2B contractor.

Re: AI adoption linked to 13% decline in jobs for young U.S. workers: study

#527
post #501

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I could consolidate those 5 with a trained chimp, but it wouldnt mean that chimps are about to overthrow mankind.

If general government policies adapted to a world with less available jobs, it wouldn't be an issue. As it stands, our governments are continuing on as normal despite the introduction of a technology which has the capability to erase an enormous amount of jobs from the pool (certainly many standard office jobs). A world with less work and no general change in policy (no UBI or similar scheme) is a world with more une…

That is assuming that this time it's different (tm) - for the first time in the multiple millennia of human history

Re: AI adoption linked to 13% decline in jobs for young U.S. workers: study

#528

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As a US-based developer I do not feel threatened by the "cheap" offshore developers I encounter. I've repeatedly been hired to clean up after offshore developers who: * lied about their capabilities/experience to get the job, * failed to grok requirements through the language barrier, * were unable to fix critical bugs in their own code base, * committed buggy chatgpt output verbatim, * and could not be held liable b…

you're delusional. of course if you take the cheapest possible offshore workers you get terrible results when compared to an experienced engineer in a developed country. but it's a bit like ikea: if you buy their cheapest stuff it will fall apart after a few months but their "expensive" lines are still far cheaper than the competition but the same quality. you might think you're a solid mahogany table but at the end…

GitHub copilot already replaces 50% of what offshore talent could do. Can’t imagine someone spinning up an offshore dev hut instead of buying more AI.

Re: AI adoption linked to 13% decline in jobs for young U.S. workers: study

#529
post #229

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'll re-explain. A human CEO might do morally questionable things. All do not, of course, but some may. Yet even so, they need a planet with air, water, and some way to survive. They also may what their kids to survive. An AI may not care. It could be taking "bad CEO" behaviour to a whole new level. And even if the AI had human ethics, humans play "us vs them" games all the time. You don't get much more "them" than a…

Nah, the insistence that humans are somehow uniquely too smart to destroy themselves is obviously laughable, it's troubling that you wrote that down without bursting into laughter because it is so silly.

Ah, the classic cynical brooding response.

First, we're discussing what an AI might do, with terms like "no air". EG, wholesale destruction.

So please do show when the human race has destroyed itself entirely. Oh wait, you're here to read this? I guess that has never, ever, ever happened. Ever. Because if one human exists, there's never been a case where humans were wiped out, with for example no air.

So the "obvious" aspect is not quite so clear. There's no evidence of it, merely conjecture.

Second, at no point did I say smart or not smart.

Instead, I discussed two viewpoints. The viewpoint of an AI, which does not require air, and the viewpoint of a human, which does care about air.

Get the difference?

You may want to dive into global warming, or pollution, or what not. These however, are longer term issues. Destruction today is far different than destruction in 100 years. Or 1000. For example, if global warming predictions are accurate, or even worse, there will still be humans somewhere for hundreds of years, without much change.

Some people might starve, the equator may be too hot, people will die, but there will be places to live still. The planet may go runaway CO2, but that partially abates as more humans die. Fewer humans, less CO2.

Yet either way, it's long term, and no one can definitively say the outcome.

Long term isn't typically part of most decision trees. There's a reason for that. When thinking long-term, you have to think of all the possible permutations, all the possible things that could happen, all the possible things that occur, and those greatly and massively expand with time.

Any thinking being which considers all of their actions right now, in the moment, would become almost immediately paralyzed if it had to consider those actions extremely long-term. Each move, each action, with massive pause and hours/days/weeks of thought. Do you consider how your next step will impact people 4,000 years in the future? A million? A billion?

What about eating toast for breakfast? How much consideration does the average entity put, into consuming food for energy, and yet looking forward on their actions for a billion years?

Beyond that, there is no accurate data for future outcomes, to make a proper determination of what may happen 500, a thousand, a million, a billion years in the future. So all of these computational chains are realistically for naught. After all, the sun may expand sooner than predicted. Certainly the moon will likely move further from Earth, and the Earth's spin will slow down. How will now, affect everything in that future?

You may say, why don't we consider our actions, you know, just in the next hundred years? But now, suddenly, are not you considering your actions in too short of a time frame? Should you not consider what the human race and what the Earth itself will be like in a billion years? If you're not considering those things, then are you not depriving entities and beings and living organisms a healthy planet one billion years in the future?

Where does it stop? Where does it begin? Where and how far in the future should you consider your actions, on a day-to-day basis?

More importantly, how much of what you do in a day should you consider with regards to the future? Which acts of yours are detrimental to the future? Do you know? Are you sure? Do you have any idea?

Obviously, some of the thoughts above are somewhat long term. Yet not thinking long term is why we got into this issue with global warming! And truthfully, if the complaint is that we're destroying the future planet for species that live here besides ourselves, then we really should be considering 10k, 50k, a million years in the future.

Anything else is only selfishly considering our own personal descendants for a couple of generations.

But let's take a step back. I'm not trying to say that we or anybody else can make these kinds of in-depth long scope decisions, nor am I saying that we should not care about global warming. Obviously we should. We actually know it's a problem now. We knew in the 70s.

Instead, what I'm saying is that individuals are individuals and excessively considering long-term ramifications of all of your actions can be highly detrimental to the capacity to make any decision whatsoever. Imagine an AI, which every single time it made a decision, every single time it even decided to compute something, every time it decided to take an action in the real world, it had to consider the ramifications one billion years hence.

Imagine the amount of processing power that would require. Now imagine the amount of energy or "food" needed. This is why beings cannot sit around for all eternity while a wolf leaps upon them, while they ponder all the possible future ramifications of even the tiniest or even medium-scale acts. And this is why the average human being does not consider the ramifications. It's an evolutionary requirement.

And as I've suggested above, it is also going to be a requirement for AI. Certainly it can consider some of its acts, much like a human being can consider some of its acts, but that's not how things work on a day-to-day basis.

Human beings solve this by observation after the fact of many of our acts, and secondarily, by reviewing what's happening in the environment and the world around us as we make change, and then determining if we should scale back or roll back what we're doing.

The same will be true of AI. If the same is not true of AI, AI will cause global warming merely by trying to stop it.

The sheer computational power required for an AI and all the AIs that are making decisions, optimally choosing best for 1M years in the future? It would eat enormous amounts of energy, this making global warming worse, whilst trying to make it better!

Whether or not we should be putting more energy into considering these things doesn't mean that it's possible for the average thinking entity to do so. Imagine the amount of processing power that would require. Now imagine the amount of energy or food. This is why beings cannot sit around for all eternity while wolf leaps upon them while they ponder all the possible future ramifications of even the tiniest or even medium-scale acts. And this is why the average human being does not consider the ramifications. It's an evolutionary requirement.

Re: AI adoption linked to 13% decline in jobs for young U.S. workers: study

#530
post #373
post #340

Lots of people are sceptical but I cannot imagine a use for entry level positions anymore. At my work everybody got to calling AI "the intern", which is not confusing because we do not have and have no use for interns.

I think you are misunderstanding the purpose of interns.

Free labour, easy to dispose of labour? Even though it’s low quality at that price point it can’t be beat. That’s the only use I have ever seen.
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