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AI adoption linked to 13% decline in jobs for young U.S. workers: study

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Re: AI adoption linked to 13% decline in jobs for young U.S. workers: study

#311
Of course it has. That's the entire point of AI.

Ostensibly it's to help programmers, or writers, or lawyers, or whomever. But those are just the users of AI.

The owners and buyers of AI at a company level are developing and using it to push down payroll expenses. That's it. It's to avoid paying people, and providing them benefits. Even if you fire 50% of your employees, realize it was a terrible mistake, and hire most of them back, it's a net reduction in payroll costs.

Re: AI adoption linked to 13% decline in jobs for young U.S. workers: study

#312
post #8

The accounting note is not true in the traditional sense. The field in the US is just getting offshored to India/PH/Eastern Europe for better or for worse. There is even a big push to lower the educational requirements to attain licensure in the US (Big 4 partners want more bodies and are destroying the pipeline for US students). Audit quality will continue to suffer and public filers will issue bunk financials if th…

It's amusing to see programmers in the US promoting remote work. Do those people really believe they're the most intellectually superior to the rest of the world? If a job can be done purely remotely, what stops the employer from hiring someone who lives in a cheaper place?

You're getting downvoted, but IMO what you're saying is exactly true, and I've seen it happen.

In my experience, pre-2015 or so, offshoring was limited in its utility. Communication was a bitch because videoconferencing from everyday laptops wasn't quite there yet, and a lot of the favored offshoring centers like India had horrible time zone overlap with the US. And perhaps most importantly, companies as a whole weren't used to fully supporting remote colleagues.

Now, though, if I interact with the majority of my colleagues over Zoom/Teams/Meet anyway, what difference does it matter where they're sitting? I've worked with absolutely phenomenal developers from Argentina, Poland and Ukraine, and there was basically no difference logistically between working with them and American colleagues. Even the folks in Eastern Europe shifted their day slightly later so that we would get about 4 hours of overlap time, which was plenty of time for communication and collaboration, and IMO made folks even more productive because it naturally enforced "collaboration hours" vs. "heads down hours".

I understand why people like remote, but I agree, US devs pushing for remote should understand they're going to be competing against folks making less than half their salaries.

Re: AI adoption linked to 13% decline in jobs for young U.S. workers: study

#313
post #8

The accounting note is not true in the traditional sense. The field in the US is just getting offshored to India/PH/Eastern Europe for better or for worse. There is even a big push to lower the educational requirements to attain licensure in the US (Big 4 partners want more bodies and are destroying the pipeline for US students). Audit quality will continue to suffer and public filers will issue bunk financials if th…

It's amusing to see programmers in the US promoting remote work. Do those people really believe they're the most intellectually superior to the rest of the world? If a job can be done purely remotely, what stops the employer from hiring someone who lives in a cheaper place?

As some have said, it's not about being superior. Common language, background, maybe overlaps in education, and avoiding cultures like those at Indian offshore companies where there is a lot of churn, maybe 1 Sr person you "hired" really farming the work out to multiple Jr people.

Timezone overlap is also a big one.

Re: AI adoption linked to 13% decline in jobs for young U.S. workers: study

#314

For similar forms of automation, isn’t 13% somewhat inline with what you’d expect? For example, I wonder how many fewer juniors were needed when we had better programming languages and tools? Do certain programming practices lead to fewer new workers? How many new factory workers aren’t hired on the factory floor due to a form of automation?

How many weavers were put out of work by textile automation in the 18th century?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Luddite

Re: AI adoption linked to 13% decline in jobs for young U.S. workers: study

#316
post #119
post #115

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Found this article from last year saying IIT grads are facing the same grim outlook as technology hiring in India for new grads has also dried up https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2024-05-30/tough-... So, that doesn't seem like a likely culprit unless you have some convincing evidence.

I think you are conflating 2 things. AI could be going after new entry level jobs in software engineering. I am not a professional engineer but an accountant by trade (I like writing software as a hobby lol) but this article looks like evidence that IIT grads will have a harder time getting these jobs that AI is attacking. My comment rests on the fact that the report doesn't really reconcile with AI destroying entry…

My experience has been that the cheap outsourcing to India is one of the main areas AI is a real disruption. You can go straight to the artificial indian, and get a better result than an outsourced worker with AI tooling. It's one of the most obvious "I no longer need a person for this" experiences I have had since self checkout.

I expect that other areas like accounting that use outsourcing are going to see similar effects in a few years.

Re: AI adoption linked to 13% decline in jobs for young U.S. workers: study

#317

Of course it has. That's the entire point of AI. Ostensibly it's to help programmers, or writers, or lawyers, or whomever. But those are just the users of AI. The owners and buyers of AI at a company level are developing and using it to push down payroll expenses. That's it. It's to avoid paying people, and providing them benefits. Even if you fire 50% of your employees, realize it was a terrible mistake, and hire mo…

I will say though as someone who solo runs their own product business, right now feels like a great time to be building your own thing.

No idea if this will last long though.

Re: AI adoption linked to 13% decline in jobs for young U.S. workers: study

#318

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's amusing to see programmers in the US promoting remote work. Do those people really believe they're the most intellectually superior to the rest of the world? If a job can be done purely remotely, what stops the employer from hiring someone who lives in a cheaper place?

As some have said, it's not about being superior. Common language, background, maybe overlaps in education, and avoiding cultures like those at Indian offshore companies where there is a lot of churn, maybe 1 Sr person you "hired" really farming the work out to multiple Jr people. Timezone overlap is also a big one.

I agree with what you've written, but I've worked with colleagues in South America and Eastern Europe where none of those problems existed: folks spoke perfect English, people were incredibly motivated to do a good job, and they spoke up proactively when problems arose.

I have had issues with Indian outsourcers like you say (lots of churn, time zone hell, a culture of pretending everything is fine until release day and then saying "sorry, nothing works", etc.), but it's a bigger world now, and there are still lots of folks making half of US dev salaries where none of these problems exist.

Re: AI adoption linked to 13% decline in jobs for young U.S. workers: study

#319
post #8

The accounting note is not true in the traditional sense. The field in the US is just getting offshored to India/PH/Eastern Europe for better or for worse. There is even a big push to lower the educational requirements to attain licensure in the US (Big 4 partners want more bodies and are destroying the pipeline for US students). Audit quality will continue to suffer and public filers will issue bunk financials if th…

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