Scaling AI will require an exponential increase in compute and processing power, and even the current LLM models take up a lot of resources. We are already at the limit of how small we can scale chips and Moore’s law is already dead. So newer chips will not be exponentially better but will be more of incremental improvements, so unless the price of electricity comes down exponentially we might never see AGI at a pric…
We are either limited by compute, available training data, or algorithms. You seem to believe we are limited by compute. I've seen other people argue that we are limited by training data. It is my totally inexpert belief that we are substantially limited by algorithms at this point.
Mark Zuckerberg freezes AI hiring amid bubble fears
681–690 of 936 posts
Re: Mark Zuckerberg freezes AI hiring amid bubble fears
#682I'm somewhere in the middle on this, with regards to the ROI... this isn't the kind of thing where you see immediate reflection on quarterly returns... it's the kind of thing where if you don't hedge some bets, you're likely to completely die out from a generational shift. Facebook's product is eyeballs... they're being usurped on all sides between TikTok, X and BlueSky in terms of daily/regular users... They're comp…
How many years of not seeing returns this quarter does it take before its all hype?
Re: Mark Zuckerberg freezes AI hiring amid bubble fears
#683Earlier quoted context omitted.
Giving 1.5 million salary is nothing for these people. It shouldn’t be mind boggling. They see revolutionary technology that has potential to change the world and is changing the world already. Making a gamble like that is worth it because losing is trivial compared to the upside of success. You are where you are and not where they are because your mind is boggled by winning strategies that are designed to arrive at…
But how is it worth for meta, since they won't really monetize it. At least the others can kinda bundle it as a service. After spending tens of billions in AI how has it impacted a single dollar on meta's revenue?
The genAI stuff is likely part talent play (bring in good people with the hot field and they'll help with the boring one), part R&D play (innovations in genAI are frequently applicable to ad targeting), and part moonshot (if it really does pan out in the way boosters seem to think, monetization won't really be a problem).
Re: Mark Zuckerberg freezes AI hiring amid bubble fears
#684Earlier quoted context omitted.
So it's not clickbait, even though the headline does not reflect the contents of the article, because you believe the headline is plausible? I think AI is a bubble, but there's nothing in here that indicates they have frozen hiring or that Zuckerberg is cautious of a bubble. Sounds like they are spending even more money per researcher.
"there's nothing in here that indicates they have frozen hiring or that Zuckerberg is cautious of a bubble" That's what makes it clickbait my friend
Re: Mark Zuckerberg freezes AI hiring amid bubble fears
#685Quality over quantity. Apparently its better to pay $100 million for 10 people than $1 million for 1000 people.
1000 people can't get a woman to have a child faster than 1 person. So it depends on the type of problem you're trying to solve. If you're trying to build a bunch of Wendy's locations, it's clearly better to have more construction workers. It's less clear that if you're trying to build SGI that you're better off with 1000 people than 10. It might be! But it might not be, too. Who knows for certain til post-ex?
Re: Mark Zuckerberg freezes AI hiring amid bubble fears
#686Re: Mark Zuckerberg freezes AI hiring amid bubble fears
#687Earlier quoted context omitted.
It's a logical fallacy that just because some technology experienced some period of exponential growth, all technology will always experience constant exponential growth. There are plenty of counter-examples to the scaling of computers that occurred from the 1970s-2010s. We thought that humans would be traveling the stars, or at least the solar system, after the space race of the 1960s, but we ended up stuck orbiting…
True, but adoption of AI has certainly seen exponential growth. Improvement of models may not continue to be exponential. But models might be good enough, at this point it seems more like they need integration and context. I could be wrong :)
I mean, for now. The population of the world is finite, and there's probably a finite number of uses of AI, so it's still probably ultimately logistic
Re: Mark Zuckerberg freezes AI hiring amid bubble fears
#688If AI really is a bubble and somehow imploded spectacularly for the rest of this year, universities would continue to spit out AI specialists for years to come. Mr. Z. will keep hiring them into every opening that comes up whether he wants to or not.
I have been saying for at least 15 years now that eventually Silly Valley will collapse when all these VCs stop funding dumb startups by the hundreds in search of the elusive "unicorns", but I've been wrong at every turn as it seems that no matter how much money they waste on dumb bullshit the so-called unicorns actually do generate enough revenue to make funding dumb startup ideas a profitable business model....
Re: Mark Zuckerberg freezes AI hiring amid bubble fears
#689I'm somewhere in the middle on this, with regards to the ROI... this isn't the kind of thing where you see immediate reflection on quarterly returns... it's the kind of thing where if you don't hedge some bets, you're likely to completely die out from a generational shift. Facebook's product is eyeballs... they're being usurped on all sides between TikTok, X and BlueSky in terms of daily/regular users... They're comp…
Good grief. Please leave your bubble once or twice in a month.
Tiktok yes. X and Bluesky, absolutely not.
Re: Mark Zuckerberg freezes AI hiring amid bubble fears
#690Earlier quoted context omitted.
I'm sure everyone is doing just fine financially, but I think it's common knowledge that these kind of comp packages are usually a mix of equity and cash earned out over multiple years with bonuses contingent on milestones, etc. The eye-popping top-line number is insane but it's also unlikely to be fully realized.
The point isn't doing fine financially, it's having left multi million dollar startups as founders. In essence, they have left stellar projects with huge money potential for the corporate rat race, albeit at important $.