Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Mark Zuckerberg freezes AI hiring amid bubble fears

telegraph.co.uk

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

521–530 of 936 posts

Re: Mark Zuckerberg freezes AI hiring amid bubble fears

#521

Post by quantified »

epolanski wrote: post #417
alsetmusic wrote: post #191

It almost seems as though the record-setting bonuses they were dolling out to hire the top minds in AI might have been a little shortsighted. A couple of years ago, I asked a financial investment person about AI as a trick question. She did well by recommending investing in companies that invest in AI (like MS) but who had other profitable businesses (like Azure). I was waiting for her to put her foot in her mouth an…

> A couple of years ago, I asked a financial investment person about AI as a trick question. Why do you assume this people know any better than average Joe on the street? Study after study demonstrates they can't even keep up with the market benchmarks, how would they be any wiser to tell you what's a fad or not.

I think the point of the question was to differentiate this person from the average Jane on the Street.

Re: Mark Zuckerberg freezes AI hiring amid bubble fears

#522

Post by jug »

bilsbie wrote: post #271

I’ve never seen so much evidence for a bubble yet so much potential to be the biggest Thing ever. Just getting a lot of mixed signals right now. Not sure what to think.

Yeah, it truly IS transformative for industries, no denying anymore at this point. What we have will remain even after a pop. But I think AI was special in how there were massive improvements the more compute you threw at it for years. But then we ran out of training material and suddenly things got much harder. It’s this ramping up of investments to spearhead transformative tech and suddenly someone turns off the tap that makes this so conflicted. I think.

Re: Mark Zuckerberg freezes AI hiring amid bubble fears

#523

Post by deegles »

miki123211 wrote: post #276
alsetmusic wrote: post #191

It almost seems as though the record-setting bonuses they were dolling out to hire the top minds in AI might have been a little shortsighted. A couple of years ago, I asked a financial investment person about AI as a trick question. She did well by recommending investing in companies that invest in AI (like MS) but who had other profitable businesses (like Azure). I was waiting for her to put her foot in her mouth an…

I have an overwhelming feeling that what we're trying to do here is "Netflix over DialUp." We're clearly seeing what AI will eventually be able to do, just like many VOD, smartphone and grocery delivery companies of the 90s did with the internet. The groundwork has been laid, and it's not too hard to see the shape of things to come. This tech, however, is still far too immature for a lot of use cases. There's enough…

> We're clearly seeing what AI will eventually be able to do

Are we though? Aside from a narrow set of tasks like translation, grammar, and tone-shifting, LLMs are a dead end. Code generation sucks. Agents suck. They still hallucinate. If you wouldn't trust its medical advice without review from an actual doctor, why would you trust its advice on anything else?

Also, the companies trying to "fix" issues with LLMs with more training data will just rediscover the "long-tail" problem... there is an infinite number of new things that need to be put into the dataset, and that's just going to reduce the quality of responses.

For example: the "there are three 'b's in blueberry" problem was caused by so much training data in response to "there are two r's in strawberry". it's a systemic issue. no amount of data will solve it because LLMs will -never- be sentient.

Finally, I'm convinced that any AI company promising they are on the path to General AI should be sued for fraud. LLMs are not it.

Re: Mark Zuckerberg freezes AI hiring amid bubble fears

#524

Post by gazarsgo »

neaden wrote: post #510
echelon wrote: post #415

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're looking at individual generations. These tools aren't for casual users expecting to 1-shot things. The value is in having a director, editor, VFX compositor pick and choose from amongst the outputs. Each generation is a single take or simulation, and you're going to do hundreds or thousands. You sift through that and explore the latent space, and that's where you find your 5-person Pixar. Human curated AI is a…

Is there any example of an AI generated film like this that is actually coherent? I've seen a couple short ones that are basically just vibe based non-linear things.

https://www.instagram.com/aist.aistories/ has tons of counterpoints, the Sam Altman vs Zuckerberg matrix recreation has been making the rounds...

Re: Mark Zuckerberg freezes AI hiring amid bubble fears

#525

Post by jopsen »

dml2135 wrote: post #443
skeezyboy wrote: post #296

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>I have an overwhelming feeling that what we're trying to do here is "Netflix over DialUp." I totally agree with you... though the other day, I did think the same thing about the 8bit era of video games.

It's a logical fallacy that just because some technology experienced some period of exponential growth, all technology will always experience constant exponential growth. There are plenty of counter-examples to the scaling of computers that occurred from the 1970s-2010s. We thought that humans would be traveling the stars, or at least the solar system, after the space race of the 1960s, but we ended up stuck orbiting…

True, but adoption of AI has certainly seen exponential growth.

Improvement of models may not continue to be exponential.

But models might be good enough, at this point it seems more like they need integration and context.

I could be wrong :)

Re: Mark Zuckerberg freezes AI hiring amid bubble fears

#526

Post by edm0nd »

respondo2134 wrote: post #315
boringg wrote: post #257

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Wage suppression? Its the opposite were talking about here. Pay large amounts of money to make sure people don't work on challenging problems. But sure you cant try and argue that's wage suppression.

This is the Gavin Belson strategy to starve Pied Piper of distributed computing experts; nobody get's to work on his Signature Edition Box 3!

Fuck Banksy!

Re: Mark Zuckerberg freezes AI hiring amid bubble fears

#527

Post by [deleted] »

lukeschlather wrote: post #392
TrackerFF wrote: post #53

I really do wonder if any of those rock star $100m++ hires managed to get a 9-figure sign-on bonus, or if the majority have year(s) long performance clauses. Imagine being paid generational wealth, and then the house of cards comes crashing down a couple of months later.

I have never heard of anyone getting a sign on bonus that was unconditional. When I have had signing bonuses they were owed back prorated if my employment ended for any reason in the first year.

[deleted]

Re: Mark Zuckerberg freezes AI hiring amid bubble fears

#528

Post by jopsen »

didibus wrote: post #345
echelon wrote: post #312

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Speaking of Netflix - I think the image, video, audio, world model, diffusion domains should be treated 100% separately from LLMs. They are not the same thing. Image and video AI is nothing short of revolutionary. It's already having huge impact and it's disrupting every single business it touches. I've spoken with hundreds of medium and large businesses about it. They're changing how they bill clients and budget pro…

You're right, and I also think LLMs have an impact. The issue is the way the market is investing they are looking for massive growth, in the multiples. That growth can't really come from trading cost. It has to come from creating new demand for new things. I think that's what not happened yet. Are diffusion models increasing the demand for video and image content? Is it having customers spend more on shows, games, an…

> Is it going to lead to the creation of a whole new consumption medium ?

Good question? Is that necessary, or is it sufficient for AI to be integrated in every kind of CAD/design software out there?

Because I think most productivity tools whether CAD, EDA, Office, graphic 2d/3d design, etc will benefit from AI. That's a huge market.

Re: Mark Zuckerberg freezes AI hiring amid bubble fears

#529

Post by techpineapple »

mindslight wrote: post #260
techpineapple wrote: post #136

Earlier quoted context omitted.

“ In any case, how's that going to work? Is everyone going to start wearing glasses? What happens if someone doesn't want to wear glasses?” People probably said the same thing about “what if someone doesn’t want to carry a phone with them everywhere”. If it’s useful enough the culture will change (which, I unequivocally think they won’t be, but I digress)

Very few will not want to wear the glasses. https://memory-alpha.fandom.com/wiki/The_Game_(episode) Last night I had a technical conversation with ChatGPT that was so full of wild hallucinations at every step, it left me wondering if the main draw of "AI" is better thought of as entertainment. And whether using it for even just rough discovery actually serves as a black hole for the motivation to get things done.

“ if the main draw of "AI" is better thought of as entertainment.”

Crazy is true, but that would somewhat follow most tech advancements right?

Re: Mark Zuckerberg freezes AI hiring amid bubble fears

#530

Post by techpineapple »

dghlsakjg wrote: post #395
mindslight wrote: post #260

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Very few will not want to wear the glasses. https://memory-alpha.fandom.com/wiki/The_Game_(episode) Last night I had a technical conversation with ChatGPT that was so full of wild hallucinations at every step, it left me wondering if the main draw of "AI" is better thought of as entertainment. And whether using it for even just rough discovery actually serves as a black hole for the motivation to get things done.

I'm actually a little shocked that AI hasn't been integrated into games more deeply at this point. Between whisper and lightweight tuned models, it wouldn't be super hard to have onboard AI models that you can interact with in much more meaningful ways that we have traditionally interacted with NPCs. When I meet an NPC castle guard, it would be awesome if they had an LLM behind it that was instructed to not allow me…

I imagine tuning this to remain fun would be a real challenge.
Post reply on HN