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Mark Zuckerberg freezes AI hiring amid bubble fears

telegraph.co.uk

291–300 of 936 posts

Re: Mark Zuckerberg freezes AI hiring amid bubble fears

#291

It almost seems as though the record-setting bonuses they were dolling out to hire the top minds in AI might have been a little shortsighted. A couple of years ago, I asked a financial investment person about AI as a trick question. She did well by recommending investing in companies that invest in AI (like MS) but who had other profitable businesses (like Azure). I was waiting for her to put her foot in her mouth an…

I have an overwhelming feeling that what we're trying to do here is "Netflix over DialUp." We're clearly seeing what AI will eventually be able to do, just like many VOD, smartphone and grocery delivery companies of the 90s did with the internet. The groundwork has been laid, and it's not too hard to see the shape of things to come. This tech, however, is still far too immature for a lot of use cases. There's enough…

> We're clearly seeing what AI will eventually be able to do

I think this is one of the major mistakes of this cycle. People assume that AI will scale and improve like many computing things before it, but there is already evidence scaling isn't working and people are putting a lot of faith in models (LLMs) structurally unsuited to the task.

Of course that doesn't mean that people won't keep exploiting the hype with hand-wavy claims.

Re: Mark Zuckerberg freezes AI hiring amid bubble fears

#292

Didn't Meta invest big into the Metaverse, then back track on that, was it $20 billion. I'd like for these investments to pay off, they're bold but it highlights how deep the pockets are to be able to invest so much.

They did indeed - see their current name

Re: Mark Zuckerberg freezes AI hiring amid bubble fears

#293
post #243

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Past a certain point, skill doesn't contribute to the magnitude of success and it becomes all luck. There are plenty of smart people on earth, but there can only be 1 founder of facebook.

I view success as the product of three factors, luck, skill and hard work. If any of these is 0, you fail, regardless of how high the other two are. Extraordinary success needs all three to be extremely high.

Or you can just have rich parents and do nothing, and still be considered successful. What you say only applies to people who start from zero, and even then I'd call luck the dominant factor (based on observing my skillful and hardworking but not really successful friends).

Re: Mark Zuckerberg freezes AI hiring amid bubble fears

#294
The most likely explanation I can think of are drugs.

Offering 1B dollar salaries and then backtracking, it's like when that addict friend calls you with a super cool idea at 11pm and then 5 days later they regret it.

Also rejecting a 1B salary? Drugs, it isn't unheard of in Silicon Valley.

Re: Mark Zuckerberg freezes AI hiring amid bubble fears

#295

Earlier quoted context omitted.

1000 people can't get a woman to have a child faster than 1 person. So it depends on the type of problem you're trying to solve. If you're trying to build a bunch of Wendy's locations, it's clearly better to have more construction workers. It's less clear that if you're trying to build SGI that you're better off with 1000 people than 10. It might be! But it might not be, too. Who knows for certain til post-ex?

> 1000 people can't get a woman to have a child faster than 1 person. I always get slightly miffed about business comparisons to gestation: getting 9 women pregnant won't get you a child in 1 month. Sure, if you want one child. But that's not what business is often doing, now is it? The target is never "one child". The target is "10 children", or "100 children" or "1000 children". You are definitely going to overrun…

Ah the new strategy - hire one rockstar woman who can gestate 1000 babies per year for $100 mil!

Re: Mark Zuckerberg freezes AI hiring amid bubble fears

#296

It almost seems as though the record-setting bonuses they were dolling out to hire the top minds in AI might have been a little shortsighted. A couple of years ago, I asked a financial investment person about AI as a trick question. She did well by recommending investing in companies that invest in AI (like MS) but who had other profitable businesses (like Azure). I was waiting for her to put her foot in her mouth an…

I have an overwhelming feeling that what we're trying to do here is "Netflix over DialUp." We're clearly seeing what AI will eventually be able to do, just like many VOD, smartphone and grocery delivery companies of the 90s did with the internet. The groundwork has been laid, and it's not too hard to see the shape of things to come. This tech, however, is still far too immature for a lot of use cases. There's enough…

>I have an overwhelming feeling that what we're trying to do here is "Netflix over DialUp."

I totally agree with you... though the other day, I did think the same thing about the 8bit era of video games.

Re: Mark Zuckerberg freezes AI hiring amid bubble fears

#297

Didn't Meta invest big into the Metaverse, then back track on that, was it $20 billion. I'd like for these investments to pay off, they're bold but it highlights how deep the pockets are to be able to invest so much.

> was it $20 billion

more like 40, yes

Re: Mark Zuckerberg freezes AI hiring amid bubble fears

#298
post #243

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Past a certain point, skill doesn't contribute to the magnitude of success and it becomes all luck. There are plenty of smart people on earth, but there can only be 1 founder of facebook.

I view success as the product of three factors, luck, skill and hard work. If any of these is 0, you fail, regardless of how high the other two are. Extraordinary success needs all three to be extremely high.

There is another dimension, which is mostly but not fully characterized as perseverance, but many times with an added dose of ruthlessness

Microsoft, Facebook, Uber, google and many others all had strong doses of ruthlessness

Re: Mark Zuckerberg freezes AI hiring amid bubble fears

#299

It almost seems as though the record-setting bonuses they were dolling out to hire the top minds in AI might have been a little shortsighted. A couple of years ago, I asked a financial investment person about AI as a trick question. She did well by recommending investing in companies that invest in AI (like MS) but who had other profitable businesses (like Azure). I was waiting for her to put her foot in her mouth an…

I have an overwhelming feeling that what we're trying to do here is "Netflix over DialUp." We're clearly seeing what AI will eventually be able to do, just like many VOD, smartphone and grocery delivery companies of the 90s did with the internet. The groundwork has been laid, and it's not too hard to see the shape of things to come. This tech, however, is still far too immature for a lot of use cases. There's enough…

There’s no evidence that it’ll scale like that. Progress in AI has always been a step function.

Re: Mark Zuckerberg freezes AI hiring amid bubble fears

#300

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It boggles the mind that this kind of management is what it takes to create one of the most valuable companies in the world (and becoming one of the world's richest in the process).

You should read Careless People if this boggles your mind.

youre thinking of ordinary people by john lennon
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