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Mark Zuckerberg freezes AI hiring amid bubble fears

telegraph.co.uk

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Re: Mark Zuckerberg freezes AI hiring amid bubble fears

#51

Post by jaccola »

criley2 wrote: post #46
jimlawruk wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

From the Big Short: Lawrence Fields: "Actually, no one can see a bubble. That's what makes it a bubble." Michael Burry: "That's dumb, Lawrence. There are always markers."

Ah Michael Burry, the man who has predicted 18 of our last 2 bubbles. Classic broken clock being right, and in a way, perfectly validates the "no one can see a bubble" claim! If Burry could actually see a bubble/crash, he wouldn't be wrong about them 95%+ of the time... (He actually missed the covid crash as well, which is pretty shocking considering his reputation and claims!) Ultimately, hindsight is 20/20 and unde…

I feel 18 out of 2 isn't a good enough statistic to say he is "just right twice a day".

What was the cost of the 16 missed predictions? Presumably he is up over all!

Also doesn't even tell us his false positive rate. If, just for example, there were 1 million opportunities for him to call a bubble, and he called 18 and then there were only 2, this makes him look much better at predicting bubbles.

Re: Mark Zuckerberg freezes AI hiring amid bubble fears

#52

Post by lelanthran »

onlyrealcuzzo wrote: post #25
nabla9 wrote: post #10

Quality over quantity. Apparently its better to pay $100 million for 10 people than $1 million for 1000 people.

1000 people can't get a woman to have a child faster than 1 person. So it depends on the type of problem you're trying to solve. If you're trying to build a bunch of Wendy's locations, it's clearly better to have more construction workers. It's less clear that if you're trying to build SGI that you're better off with 1000 people than 10. It might be! But it might not be, too. Who knows for certain til post-ex?

> 1000 people can't get a woman to have a child faster than 1 person.

I always get slightly miffed about business comparisons to gestation: getting 9 women pregnant won't get you a child in 1 month.

Sure, if you want one child. But that's not what business is often doing, now is it?

The target is never "one child". The target is "10 children", or "100 children" or "1000 children".

You are definitely going to overrun your ETA if your target is 100 children in 9 months using only 100 women.

IOW, this is a facile comparison not worthy of consideration.[1]

> So it depends on the type of problem you're trying to solve.

This[1] is not the type of problem where the analogy applies.

=====================================

[1] It's even more facile in this context: you're looking to strike gold (AGI), so the analogy is trying to get one genius (160+ IQ) child. Good luck getting there by getting 1 woman pregnant at a time!

Re: Mark Zuckerberg freezes AI hiring amid bubble fears

#53

Post by TrackerFF »

I really do wonder if any of those rock star $100m++ hires managed to get a 9-figure sign-on bonus, or if the majority have year(s) long performance clauses.

Imagine being paid generational wealth, and then the house of cards comes crashing down a couple of months later.

Re: Mark Zuckerberg freezes AI hiring amid bubble fears

#54

Post by ojr »

ojr wrote: post #24

I just did a phone screen with Meta, and the interviewer asked for Euclidean distance between two points; they definitely have some nerds in the building.

it wasn't just euclidean distance of course, it was this leetcode problem k closest points to origin https://leetcode.com/problems/k-closest-points-to-origin/des..., I thought if I needed a heap I would have to implement it myself didn't know I can use a library

Re: Mark Zuckerberg freezes AI hiring amid bubble fears

#56

Post by sumedh »

steve1977 wrote: post #42
roxolotl wrote: post #2

Maybe this time investors will realize how incompetent these leaders are? How do you go from 250mil contracts to freezes in under a month?

IMHO Mark Zuckerberg is a textbook case of someone who got lucky once by basically being in the right place at the right time, but who attributes his success to his skill. There’s probably a proper term for this.

Except a company like Google with all its billions could not compete with Facebook. o Mark did something right.

Re: Mark Zuckerberg freezes AI hiring amid bubble fears

#60

Post by beagle3 »

breitling wrote: post #45
steve1977 wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

IMHO Mark Zuckerberg is a textbook case of someone who got lucky once by basically being in the right place at the right time, but who attributes his success to his skill. There’s probably a proper term for this.

To be fair, buying Instagram so early + WhatsApp were great moves too.

But they were less “skill” and more “surveillance”. He had very good usage statistics (which he shouldn’t have had) of these apps through Onavo - a popular VPN app Facebook bought for the purpose of spying on what users are doing outside Facebook.
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