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US national debt reaches a record $37T, the Treasury Department reports

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Re: US national debt reaches a record $37T, the Treasury Department reports

#52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It looks like it was under control for a while following World War II, but then from the early 1980s, it's hard for me not correlate the first derivative of the slope of that graph with presidential party.

What do you specifically see? I see two big increases in debt, both due to shocks (the 08 financial crisis, and the pandemic; one under Obama, and one under Trump.). Pre 2008, it does look like moderate increases under Reagan/Bush1 and Bush 2, and flat to decrease under Clinton, is that what you mean?

The 2008 crisis happened under Bush, not Obama. Obama was inaugurated on January 20th, 2009.

Re: US national debt reaches a record $37T, the Treasury Department reports

#53

How do you guys see this ending? I don't see this ending well but I can't imagine what happens. Seems unsustainable but nobody wants to deal with it.

2 years ago, Wharton predicted that the U.S. debt would be defaulted on in twenty years [0].

> Under current policy, the United States has about 20 years for corrective action after which no amount of future tax increases or spending cuts could avoid the government defaulting on its debt whether explicitly or implicitly (i.e., debt monetization producing significant inflation). Unlike technical defaults where payments are merely delayed, this default would be much larger and would reverberate across the U.S. and world economies.

My prediction is that the deficit will continue to increase, and so the default will come by then or sooner.

[0]: https://budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.edu/issues/2023/10/6/when-...

Re: US national debt reaches a record $37T, the Treasury Department reports

#54
post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

if the debt ever causes actual problems, e.g. we can't sell our treasury bonds, then our politicians will suddenly remember how to tax rich people. In the mean time the impossible, unsustainable, terrifying national debt will be used to justify benefit cuts (like the upcoming privatization/cut of social security when the trust fund runs out in 7 years)

I think even in that situation, politicians will try and play ball with the rich since the majority of them are on that same side. But having to implement emergency austerity measures in this scenario would just outright blow up the US economy. If the wealthy donors and corporate interests were smart they'd take a haircut on their wealth to try and stave off this issue but it seems we're mostly in a loot-and-raze cra…

The revolution wont be like the French revolution, itll be like the Handmaids Tale.

A massive return to conservatism that manages to create a capitalist first theocracy loosely following American Calvinist principles (you have money because you are gods chosen, you are poor because you deserve it, for the poor here is this underclass to blame your problems on so that you dont aim your murder at the rich).

Re: US national debt reaches a record $37T, the Treasury Department reports

#56
post #36
post #8

Just in time for captain genius, leader of the financially responsible party to decide that his primary goal is to make sure corporations and billionaires pay less tax. I’m sure that will go just fine.

Maybe billionaires pay less tax, but companies seem to be taking it in the shorts from tariffs. Unless, of course, they push them onto consumers.

In what period of history have companies not pushed taxes onto consumers?

Re: US national debt reaches a record $37T, the Treasury Department reports

#57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

On a long enough timeline we're all dead. In the near term, expect a lot of stupid decisions and huffing and puffing based on an ideological framing of what the national debt is. I am not an economist or finance guy, but I have noticed a lot of debt hysteria from people who don't seem to understand basic accounting. That is, one party's asset is another party's liability. You cannot have buying without selling, and s…

I'm not an expert but I often fear that the whole S&P500 success is tied to govt spending.

It's tied to GPUs. Nvidia accounts for ~8% of the S&P 500 as of this comment.

AI is propping up the US economy - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44802916 - August 2025 (439 comments)

Re: US national debt reaches a record $37T, the Treasury Department reports

#58
At this rate, the debt ceiling’s going to need its own space program!

Thank you, Mr. T, and to all those before you who let avoidable crises happen, handed out tax cuts to your richest friends, and slapped it all on the national credit card.

The people of this country will be feeling your “generosity” and recklessness for decades to come.

PS: I'd invite everyone to examine how US Debt/GDP grew unbounded.

The biggest culprits seem to be i) financial crisis and ii) covid. I consider both of them avoidable, man-made. When you have reckless leaders who have no interest in protecting the nation from man-made and natural catastrophies this is what you get. And obviously, you have massive tax cuts added on top, which have been completely uncalled for, given our ginormous debt.

As a follow-up, maybe briefly ask yourself: What additional tail risks are actively being ignored today? Whose job is it to minimize those?

Then think about the wholesale dismantling of the US government (under Doge), eliminating the post-crisis financial regulation, actively contributing to climate change...

Re: US national debt reaches a record $37T, the Treasury Department reports

#60
post #36
post #8

Just in time for captain genius, leader of the financially responsible party to decide that his primary goal is to make sure corporations and billionaires pay less tax. I’m sure that will go just fine.

Maybe billionaires pay less tax, but companies seem to be taking it in the shorts from tariffs. Unless, of course, they push them onto consumers.

With less companies to compete you can expect it.

When Donald put tariff in dishwashers even the ones made in US rose it's prices.

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