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US national debt reaches a record $37T, the Treasury Department reports

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Re: US national debt reaches a record $37T, the Treasury Department reports

#31

Post by emchammer »

secabeen wrote: post #20
emchammer wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It looks like it was under control for a while following World War II, but then from the early 1980s, it's hard for me not correlate the first derivative of the slope of that graph with presidential party.

What do you specifically see? I see two big increases in debt, both due to shocks (the 08 financial crisis, and the pandemic; one under Obama, and one under Trump.). Pre 2008, it does look like moderate increases under Reagan/Bush1 and Bush 2, and flat to decrease under Clinton, is that what you mean?

Yes, that's roughly what I see. The bottom of the Y axis on this graph is 30% which can be a little deceptive. It looks to me like Clinton and Obama had a terrible challenge in bringing this under control following the early 1980s and the 2008 financial crises and they did what they could, and then there is also Reaganomics. It just looks so hopeless because this figure is as high as it was following the war. Now Biff Tannen's in the White House, and he'll be knocking down walls. I don't think the system was meant to handle human greed on this scale.

Re: US national debt reaches a record $37T, the Treasury Department reports

#32

Post by rootjknak »

Terr_ wrote: post #6

For the visually-inclined, a graph of debt as a proportion of GDP [0]: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GFDGDPA188S Of course, this doesn't show projections for what the future debt will become after the Republican's "BBB" package from a few months ago. [0] Yes, I know GDP is a flawed measure, but as long as its flaws are consistent over the years it is useful for scaling.

the biggest spikes seems to have been

1.) 2008 financial crisis, 67% -> 82%

2.) covid, 105% -> 125%

so basically, a one time war injury upon America's finance and health.

Re: US national debt reaches a record $37T, the Treasury Department reports

#33

Post by dzink »

tencentshill wrote: post #7
bradhe wrote: post #5

Reported. It'll be amended soon after the statisticians get fired and yes-men get put in.

Current treasury head is Scott Bessent, previously of Soros Fund Management and Key Square Group. He's far too qualified to be part of this administration. Expect him gone soon.

From his bio on wikipedia he was most successful betting against currencies at Soros but had little to no success with his own ventures.

Re: US national debt reaches a record $37T, the Treasury Department reports

#34

Post by Iwan-Zotow »

OgsyedIE wrote: post #25
tencentshill wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Current treasury head is Scott Bessent, previously of Soros Fund Management and Key Square Group. He's far too qualified to be part of this administration. Expect him gone soon.

He's said on Fox Business today that on the basis of whatever agreements have been made in Alaska the US now considers the public and private holdings of its European allies + Japan to be part of an American sovereign wealth fund that can be expropriated whenever some cash is needed. Either he's lying about that or he has guaranteed a position as Trump's number one favourite after Lighthizer.

So Putin and Trump to agree in Alaska to loot public and private holdings of US European allies + Japan?

And what would Putin get?

Re: US national debt reaches a record $37T, the Treasury Department reports

#35

Post by epolanski »

kamikazeturtles wrote: post #21
Terr_ wrote: post #6

For the visually-inclined, a graph of debt as a proportion of GDP [0]: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GFDGDPA188S Of course, this doesn't show projections for what the future debt will become after the Republican's "BBB" package from a few months ago. [0] Yes, I know GDP is a flawed measure, but as long as its flaws are consistent over the years it is useful for scaling.

> Yes, I know GDP is a flawed measure, but as long as its flaws are consistent over the years it is useful for scaling. I don't think they can be considered consistent over the years. 20% of our GDP is healthcare and that's only going to grow as the population ages. I don't know what percent of the GDP is financial services but that'll probably also grow until we get something akin to 2008 again. Including healthcare…

> Including healthcare and financial services in GDP figures feels out of place and unproductive

You reminded me of something: a nurse in San Diego sleeping through her entire shift is more productive than half a dozen nurses in many third world countries working hard, because the way economists measure productivity is the $/hour output. People doing nothing in America are much more productive than people doing a lot in most of the world because that is how we define productivity, and how the term is discussed in articles and papers.

Doesn't matter, the same articles and papers will bring up that US enjoys higher productivity due to better technologies, etc, but since all of that makes it very hard to be really measured, it's always a mixture of some heterogeneous ideas together.

Re: US national debt reaches a record $37T, the Treasury Department reports

#36

Post by jleyank »

mdhb wrote: post #8

Just in time for captain genius, leader of the financially responsible party to decide that his primary goal is to make sure corporations and billionaires pay less tax. I’m sure that will go just fine.

Maybe billionaires pay less tax, but companies seem to be taking it in the shorts from tariffs. Unless, of course, they push them onto consumers.

Re: US national debt reaches a record $37T, the Treasury Department reports

#37

Post by epolanski »

2OEH8eoCRo0 wrote: post #19

How do you guys see this ending? I don't see this ending well but I can't imagine what happens. Seems unsustainable but nobody wants to deal with it.

At some point there will be a need for austerity measures and rising taxes, and whoever will do that will be very unpopular.

Re: US national debt reaches a record $37T, the Treasury Department reports

#38

Post by 2OEH8eoCRo0 »

bithive123 wrote: post #30
2OEH8eoCRo0 wrote: post #19

How do you guys see this ending? I don't see this ending well but I can't imagine what happens. Seems unsustainable but nobody wants to deal with it.

On a long enough timeline we're all dead. In the near term, expect a lot of stupid decisions and huffing and puffing based on an ideological framing of what the national debt is. I am not an economist or finance guy, but I have noticed a lot of debt hysteria from people who don't seem to understand basic accounting. That is, one party's asset is another party's liability. You cannot have buying without selling, and s…

I'm not an expert but I often fear that the whole S&P500 success is tied to govt spending.

Re: US national debt reaches a record $37T, the Treasury Department reports

#40

Post by no_wizard »

2OEH8eoCRo0 wrote: post #19

How do you guys see this ending? I don't see this ending well but I can't imagine what happens. Seems unsustainable but nobody wants to deal with it.

Badly and abruptly.

As long as the US maintains the western worlds largest military, I don't see the government being pressured to do much of anything remotely close to dealing with the problem in a long term (and likely painful) way.

If that power ever gets displaced, it'll tank the US quickly. As soon as the US loses its privileged status (something Trump is rapidly deteriorating) this becomes a serious burden that will require some serious policy decisions, of which most will be unpopular. It'll likely be cuts before tax increases, because even when facing the worst economic situation, neither party wants to pass meaningful tax increases.

I think we have at least a few more decades, but if we aren't the western worlds de facto military there's significantly less reason to let this house of cards go on.

We'd be better off dealing with it while we are still in a relatively privileged position, but no economic class wants the tax increases it will take just to get the debt into a manageable state.

As for no party wanting to deal with it, that is partly true. I think some Democrats actually want to deal with it, because they're much more comfortable proposing tax increases, but they don't have sway in the current leadership of the party.

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