The demographic future of humanity: facts and consequences [pdf]

Post by mensetmanusman » Tue, Aug 12, 2025, 5:22 PM UTC

arethuza wrote: post #304

mensetmanusman wrote: post #302

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Surprisingly (for secularists), post religion means degrowth of the culture. So it’s a good thing if you want Europe’s culture replaced by what the data show is happening, and it’s a bad thing if you think Europe’s traditional culture is worth saving.

Well where I am (Edinburgh) we have a superabundance of culture at this time of year - very little of which has anything to do with religion?

Post by mensetmanusman » Tue, Aug 12, 2025, 5:30 PM UTC

swat535 wrote: post #159

stego-tech wrote: post #86

Funny, I just wrapped a blog post about this: https://green.spacedino.net/i-dont-worry-about-population-de... Good presentation by the author that reaffirms my own opinions about the topic, specifically that while it sucks and cripples the social welfare programs our (deceased) elders built on the theory of continued population and productivity growth, it's also an issue we can fix with coordination between powers an…

Here is an uncomfortable truth: religious people produce more children, regardless of their income, social welfare status and living conditions. They are thought from birth that marriage, family and children are gifts from "God". In fact, Christians make it a _requirement_ to be "open to life" (i.e have children) before they agree to marry you in Church (in addition to banning contraceptives, abortions and porn). The…

Post by mensetmanusman » Tue, Aug 12, 2025, 5:39 PM UTC

api wrote: post #54

rendang wrote: post #51

The selection effects of this transition will be really fascinating to see after the fact. The species has spent a long time under selection pressure for "having more kids", but is being subjected for the first time to "having more kids while extreme prosperity and modern telecommunications exist" which is a very different thing.

I had an evolutionary bio professor in college say this: "you don't understand evolution until you understand how contraception could lead to overpopulation." Anything placed in the path of reproduction is a barrier to be overcome. If there is anything in the human genome that correlates with a positive desire to choose to have children, we are selecting hard for that right now. We may see a bottleneck this century a…

Post by mensetmanusman » Tue, Aug 12, 2025, 5:42 PM UTC

Arainach wrote: post #7

The complaining about fertility rates, mostly done by the chunk of the population hoarding more and more of the wealth, will continue until people's ability to afford rent and children improves.

Post by zappb » Tue, Aug 12, 2025, 6:04 PM UTC

adriand wrote: post #108

baron816 wrote: post #22

The mid-century Baby Boom occurred after a surge in affordable home keeping technologies (vacuum cleaners, washing machines, refrigerators, etc). I think a rebound in fertility will have to come from technology. Specifically, robots to help with child care and new fertility treatments to allow women to have children later in their lives.

My concern is the intersection of rightwing natalism with Silicon Valley ideology leading to technological “solutions” involving, essentially, test tube babies. Take women out of the picture entirely. I can especially see a dystopian dynamic involving the “we have to compete with China” or “they’re doing it / about to do it in China” narratives.