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The demographic future of humanity: facts and consequences [pdf]

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Re: The demographic future of humanity: facts and consequences [pdf]

#31

Post by toomuchtodo »

rayiner wrote: post #19
toomuchtodo wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Social security is solvent for at least the next 75 years if the US removes the payroll cap on contributions from wage income. We choose not to. The economic resources exist for these social programs, it will just diminish profits (the horror /s). It's a policy choice. Every year total fertility rate remains lower than replacement rate further locks in the fertility curve, but there is no political will or desire to…

By 2075, Medicare and Social Security will reach a over 14% of GDP combined, up from around 8% today. To pay that, we'll have to raise taxes by $1.75 trillion using today's GDP figures. That will require just about doubling payroll taxes from the present level. That's probably an underestimate. As population shrinks, GDP will shrink as well, unless we have large gains in productivity, which have stalled. It's not cle…

I agree with your observations. The future will not be as bright as the past, the population boom was already squeezed for the gains. Immigration at the levels needed to change this are unpalatable to most electorates, and with total fertility rate dropping across the world, it's important to be mindful that net migration to Earth is 0 (slide 39). As the economic future deteriorates due to the ever increasing drag of these obligations, I'd expect total fertility rate to continue to decline at present rates (if not slightly accelerate). This creates a self reinforcing feedback loop. A "Demographic Doom Loop" [1].

Happiness is reality minus expectations.

[1] https://x.com/KenRoth/status/1753526235173450213 | https://archive.today/rY4WG

Re: The demographic future of humanity: facts and consequences [pdf]

#32

Post by gddgb »

bArray wrote: post #23

> Don’t we care about output per capita? Not "yes and no", the answer is simply yes. You cannot simply flood your country with unrestricted migration from lower GDP per capita countries and not expect overall growth to slow down. > Yes, output per capita is the primary measure of individual welfare but... > our ability to service debt and social security obligations depends on total output. Our ability to service soc…

[dead]

Re: The demographic future of humanity: facts and consequences [pdf]

#33

Post by rayiner »

The point on p. 39 about immigration is important for everyone to understand:

> Most immigrants worsen the fiscal position of the government.

According to an Economist article addressing data collected by Denmark, each non-western immigrants produce a negative financial benefit over their lifetimes, and immigrants from the Middle East, North Africa, Pakistan, are a net cost on the government at every age: https://inquisitivebird.xyz/p/the-effects-of-immigration-in-...

Re: The demographic future of humanity: facts and consequences [pdf]

#34

Post by Animats »

The future is probably a society with more robots than humans.

We can see this happening now at Amazon. Amazon is a good case to watch, because their operations replace humans with robots on close to a one to one basis. Right now, Amazon has about 1.5 million human employees, and 1 million robots. Amazon reached peak humans in 2022, with around 1.6 million employees. Then human employees began to decline slightly. Robots continue to increase. Here's an old chart from 2017, when Amazon had increased all the way to 45,000 robots and some people were worried.[1] Now, it's 20x that.

How a society of mostly robots will work is not clear, but it's coming anyway.

[1] https://www.statista.com/chart/7428/45000-robots-form-part-o...

Re: The demographic future of humanity: facts and consequences [pdf]

#35

Post by FredPret »

Animats wrote: post #28
UncleMeat wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Paul Ehrlich was the most visible figure in the midcentury fear of overpopulation. He claimed that by now we'd have seen starvation so profound around the world (100,000,000s dead of starvation) that large portions of the third world would collapse completely and that the only mechanism to prevent this starvation was extreme population control measures placed by the west on the rest of the world (including things lik…

India got there on overpopulation. Total fertility rate around 6 in 1965. India does not have enough water for its population.[1] China would have hit similar problems if not for their one-child policy. China managed to avoid the overshoot when medicine starts to work but the economy hasn't developed yet. India didn't. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Water_scarcity_in_India

If you have access to the sea and to uranium you can make all the freshwater you need, even recycle your own wastewater nearly infinitely.

This is a technological and economic problem, not an overpopulation problem.

Re: The demographic future of humanity: facts and consequences [pdf]

#36

Post by FredPret »

api wrote: post #2

Paul Ehrlich was almost exactly wrong about everything, but he continues to frame the discourse to a ridiculous degree. I'm not sure what the magic pixie dust is that allows people to be this wrong and still have credibility.

The modern-day Malthus, except so much worse, because he had the example of Malthus but chose to ignore the lesson there

Re: The demographic future of humanity: facts and consequences [pdf]

#37

Post by ch4s3 »

baron816 wrote: post #22

The mid-century Baby Boom occurred after a surge in affordable home keeping technologies (vacuum cleaners, washing machines, refrigerators, etc). I think a rebound in fertility will have to come from technology. Specifically, robots to help with child care and new fertility treatments to allow women to have children later in their lives.

The mid-century Baby Boom came after WWII, and probably had very little to do with technology. The upswing started some time in late 1944 to mid 1945 as combat was winding down in Europe and a lot of young men were returning home. Otherwise fertility has been declining steadily since 1800 in western countries.

Re: The demographic future of humanity: facts and consequences [pdf]

#38

Post by TrackerFF »

Ironic as it may sound, coming from a childfree millennial, I'm kind of puzzled how the system will survive. Both my grandparents died in their 90s, and spent over 30 years are retirees - mainly living off their state pension.

As people become older, they'll either have to work longer, or the system will come crashing down. Especially with lower fertility rates. My generation should be birthing kids as the previous ones, but I think almost half of my peers are childfree, too. And we're in the age that we have maybe - if lucky - 6,7 more years to reproduce.

I can't imagine a population where 1/3 will be retired people. It is also a huge drain on the healthcare system.

Re: The demographic future of humanity: facts and consequences [pdf]

#40

Post by variadix »

toomuchtodo wrote: post #31
rayiner wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

By 2075, Medicare and Social Security will reach a over 14% of GDP combined, up from around 8% today. To pay that, we'll have to raise taxes by $1.75 trillion using today's GDP figures. That will require just about doubling payroll taxes from the present level. That's probably an underestimate. As population shrinks, GDP will shrink as well, unless we have large gains in productivity, which have stalled. It's not cle…

I agree with your observations. The future will not be as bright as the past, the population boom was already squeezed for the gains. Immigration at the levels needed to change this are unpalatable to most electorates, and with total fertility rate dropping across the world, it's important to be mindful that net migration to Earth is 0 (slide 39). As the economic future deteriorates due to the ever increasing drag of…

The welfare state has to collapse before people realize children are their retirement plan, and that there’s no guarantee the government will take care of them in old age.
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