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The demographic future of humanity: facts and consequences [pdf]

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Re: The demographic future of humanity: facts and consequences [pdf]

#281
post #174

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I drove through at least 10 cities in Nigeria I’ve never heard of that had tons of buildings over 10 stories. I just took the fastest route across, I didn’t go wandering. This was 10 years ago too. Also remember the DRC is almost a million square miles. So it’s 1.5x Alaska.

Sigh. Personal experience Vs. looking at pictures from the basement.... I expect it to be USA policy soon.

One is anecdotal, one is data.

Re: The demographic future of humanity: facts and consequences [pdf]

#282
post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A substantial realignment in the economy is what's coming. The charge will be when the rate of vacated homes starts to uptick as their aren't enough capable people to live in them: right now the major metros have a lot of pent up demand, but those retirement figures imply a different reality as time goes on: eventually those people start going into care facilities, but their won't be nearly enough people around to su…

Case in point - Japan, with so many abandoned homes

In the countryside, I doubt that this is the case in Tokyo.

Re: The demographic future of humanity: facts and consequences [pdf]

#283
if humans stop age and live for thousands years, then there is no need for specific replacement rate.

Alternative, make it possible to have kids without heavy burden on the woman body.

Alternative, make it possible to become pregnant at 50-60 years.

This is all research vectors that we should work on, and not doom on hypothetical what ifs in the future!

Re: The demographic future of humanity: facts and consequences [pdf]

#284

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not the person you're asking, but I'm of the impression that colloquially, the verb "sex" includes more than strictly the traditional historical definition. I'll refrain from getting into specific details here, but I think the answer to this question is that many people use words in a manner that diverges from literal definitions. There's a concept in linguistics that language is constantly evolving. As someone on th…

Thanks for the reply. I do have similar impedance mismatches with the social consensus in a lot of areas. In everyday life I basically do what you are suggesting, but internally I end up having thoughts like this that I typically only feel safe sharing non-anonymously with people who are close. I do sometimes wonder whether mass education and extensive media exposure from childhood have essentially brainwashed all bu…

> internally I end up having thoughts like this that I typically only feel safe sharing non-anonymously with people who are close.

Ever tried flipping the lid on this? You'd start opening up a lot of people. Those who would try to use that against you or judge have no relevance since they are not close anyway.

> why the traditionalists/far right haven’t taken this propaganda approach ...

they have little, low quality sex and any debate about it would force them to face this, even though it barely matters to them but admitting weakness with something so brutally natural is way above their heads.

if they didn't "make" their partner orgasm, ever, are they real men or gay men in disguise? (their thoughts, not mine, I think they are gay for other reasons)

it's similar to how young people used to or still do laugh about older men needing Viagra.

b) traditionalists and far right have build a merry go round in a dead end, "Sackgasse" in German.

it's a top down dogma.

they cannot have arguments that extend established ways of reasoning before their kind has engineered context and research within which their reasoning follows proper logic (see Quillete (don't) for lots of examples, or rationalists and autistic people easily running with the magic money herd).

they end up having to face the secret life's and thoughts of their partners, realizing they were actively kept in line so that their superiors and peers can reign freely vs having to compete with them, which would extend their minds, freedom and literal happiness.

Re: The demographic future of humanity: facts and consequences [pdf]

#285

Maybe expecting every single person to work and no one to homestead and care for the kids, within a system that explicitly does not support families, was a mistake. (Please note that I did not gender the roles. My best friend is a stay-at-home dad and he is amazing. They can afford to do this, though, because his wife's compensation is extremely high.)

No matter the gender of the one staying at home, it creates a problematic power imbalance between the two parts of the couple, where one depends on the other and may be left in trouble if ever the couple should find an end.

Re: The demographic future of humanity: facts and consequences [pdf]

#286
post #184

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Expectations are part of it, but regardless of compensation or lack thereof it turns out that a lot of adults simply prefer to work outside the home instead of caring for children. Child rearing is essential, and rewarding in many ways. But it's also exhausting, repetitive, and frustrating. It's not surprising that given the choice many adults would rather spend time around other adults instead of children. In the pa…

> a lot of adults simply prefer to work outside the home instead of caring for children Or they think that they do, due to what the zeitgeist urges. We can never really know.

What's the difference? People want what they want, it's always been this way. No one makes life choices in a cultural vacuum.

Re: The demographic future of humanity: facts and consequences [pdf]

#287
post #250

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I often meditate on this - can even the concept of index fund retirement survive an actual depopulation scenario? Of course, older forms of retirement can still work (have ten kids each of who have ten kids and you command an army in retirement; perhaps they’ll even call you King) - but aside from that where does the growth come from when not from population or immigration?

Index funds will survive anything short of a complete collapse of the financial system. Even if returns are low, they only have to be better than the alternatives (on a risk adjusted basis).

if the consumer base collapse what will keep the stock fundamentals going ?

Re: The demographic future of humanity: facts and consequences [pdf]

#288

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> a lot of adults simply prefer to work outside the home instead of caring for children Or they think that they do, due to what the zeitgeist urges. We can never really know.

What's the difference? People want what they want, it's always been this way. No one makes life choices in a cultural vacuum.

The difference is that in one case it could be recognised and avoided, if beneficial for both the individual & society.

Re: The demographic future of humanity: facts and consequences [pdf]

#289
post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Rent is the bigger issue than affordability per se. My wife pointed out the other day that we had our second and third kids shortly after we stopped living in apartments and bought a house. We didn't plan to have a significant age gap between our first (who we had in law school) and our other kids, and we earned a lot of money the whole time, it just happened that way. She's convinced that having the extra space subc…

I've been encouraging my cousin who desperately wants children to have them in her two bedroom apartment but she feels that she needs to have a house first and she and her husband can't afford one. They're in their late 30s. My partner and I are mid-30s planning to have young children in our 2 bedroom apartment, we'd prefer a 3 bedroom but they DO NOT EXIST in our Los Angeles neighborhood. More space means untenable…

Raised 3 kids in a 2 bedroom apartment in NYC. It’s fine. When they go to college, they marvel at the space they have in a dorm room.

Re: The demographic future of humanity: facts and consequences [pdf]

#290
post #34

The future is probably a society with more robots than humans. We can see this happening now at Amazon. Amazon is a good case to watch, because their operations replace humans with robots on close to a one to one basis. Right now, Amazon has about 1.5 million human employees, and 1 million robots. Amazon reached peak humans in 2022, with around 1.6 million employees. Then human employees began to decline slightly. Ro…

they should form a union

The people or the machines? Or both? :)
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