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The demographic future of humanity: facts and consequences [pdf]

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271–280 of 409 posts

Re: The demographic future of humanity: facts and consequences [pdf]

#271
post #184

Maybe expecting every single person to work and no one to homestead and care for the kids, within a system that explicitly does not support families, was a mistake. (Please note that I did not gender the roles. My best friend is a stay-at-home dad and he is amazing. They can afford to do this, though, because his wife's compensation is extremely high.)

Expectations are part of it, but regardless of compensation or lack thereof it turns out that a lot of adults simply prefer to work outside the home instead of caring for children. Child rearing is essential, and rewarding in many ways. But it's also exhausting, repetitive, and frustrating. It's not surprising that given the choice many adults would rather spend time around other adults instead of children. In the pa…

> a lot of adults simply prefer to work outside the home instead of caring for children

Or they think that they do, due to what the zeitgeist urges. We can never really know.

Re: The demographic future of humanity: facts and consequences [pdf]

#272
post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Intuitvely, those opposing immigration have always known this. But tell that t someone from the left They will verbally kill you for stating obvious facts.

Intuition alone really isn't to be trusted with public policy decisions of this magnitude.

Well, "data" can't be trusted either, because it is released/announced very selectively. And the media doesn't help either, because data which contradicts the chosen narrative isn't published/commented. In general, I am missing independent journalism. Most of what we get these days is agenda-driven.

Re: The demographic future of humanity: facts and consequences [pdf]

#273

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> "Free market" economics does not capture this destruction of value. Oh, but it does. It turns out that people who own land take care of it, so that it keeps producing. People who own timber land tend to manage it so it continues to be productive. Destruction happens with government owned land. For a related example, why are we not running out of cattle, hogs, and chickens, despite slaughtering them on an epic scale…

They might take care of their land, but they don’t generally care what happens to other peoples land. So excess fertilizer creating dead zones downstream? Well sucks to be them I guess. Markets are not good at pricing in externalities such as those

A proper function of government is to internalize the externalities (with fines or taxes).

Re: The demographic future of humanity: facts and consequences [pdf]

#274

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think perhaps you are discussing too many threads simultaneously. I'm fully onboard with Maccas and Artists creating something thus creating wealth. Also, yes, transaction are exchanges. Nobody is arguing that. You pay rent and in exchange you may use the land (productively or not) My argument is that people are forced to pay rent to people who didn't create anything, but because they hold a piece of paper that say…

The person who owns it bought it from person who created it. The person who bought it then manages it, maintains it, organizes it, advertises it, pays taxes on it, etc. And there's nothing wrong with that. If rentable places were not allowed to be sold, very very few would exist. This is because people specialize - some build rentals, some manage them. Both are productive enterprises. You can become a landlord if you…

I broadly agree with you, but there is really a point here about land ownership.

Although developments of the land do improve the value, and thus land ownership has significant utility economically by incentivizing this, there isn't really an economic justification for the owner receiving value for the land itself- why should someone have exclusive rights to a piece of land they didn't create? They bought it, sure, but why did the previous owner have perpetual exclusive rights?

I'd advocate for a small property tax as a replacement for other taxes, because the component that does tax "land value" won't cause economic harm, but all of income tax causes deadweight loss. (Note, Land Value Tax is great in theory, but impossible to define practically- property tax good enough, much harder to game!)

Note that in practice, the biggest abuser of land hoarding is local governments with extremely restrictive zoning that stops productive development of the land- from an economic perspective they own the land, and have sold (or in reality, seized) some but not all of the rights from the 'landowner'. Although this can have advantages to help with coordination problems, in practice it's caused enormous economic damage to many cities by preventing development. At its heart, it's a problem with land hoarding.

Re: The demographic future of humanity: facts and consequences [pdf]

#275

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> When I’m in Japan it’s common to see parents carting around a kid or two on an appropriately kitted out bike for example. Yes, and now look at their fertility rates.

I’m not saying that Japan has it all figured out, just that cities can be built to allow many families to thrive without a car. Japan has their own set of issues w.r.t birthrate, but it’s partially a different set than those seen in the US.

OK. Can you get a double stroller into busy Tokyo subway during the rush hour?

Re: The demographic future of humanity: facts and consequences [pdf]

#276

Funny, I just wrapped a blog post about this: https://green.spacedino.net/i-dont-worry-about-population-de... Good presentation by the author that reaffirms my own opinions about the topic, specifically that while it sucks and cripples the social welfare programs our (deceased) elders built on the theory of continued population and productivity growth, it's also an issue we can fix with coordination between powers an…

The fertility rate is falling everywhere, even countries that have extensive childcare and maternity/paternity leave. Sweden grants 68 weeks of shared parental leave and their TFR is at 1.45. There is nothing authentic about porn, what a strange comment. Sure, it hacks the reward system of the brain in the same way that a slot machine does, but this does absolutely nothing to promote families.

Wherever I look, if people want children, they fuck and have children. Single moms everywhere; no problem; most fathers are living up to the minimum of paying until the kid is old enough and the moms are fine with it. what else to live for than fun and parental purpose?

the fertility rate is falling because people care less because that's what comes across from top down everywhere.

it's too many lies covered up by people who are responsible for the opposite.

if the top does not care for the best, then my children are doomed to stay far below their potential and will experience at least some mental illness and health issues that will diminish the enjoyment of their life to a pointless minimum. local hierarchies and the particular competences and values and characters are just damn pathetic and the same is true in most other orbits. it's choice and POV. and just my observation, btw

then you look around, how others raise their kids and how all those people turn out. no thank you.

and if that's what the top wants, lol, ok, go ahead. we are fine with less kids, whenever we want, if we want.

on a side note: I do believe this is all implicit to how the colonies decided to progress. genetic algorithms don't care about reproduction. lessons learned and saved. the code can be reassembled at any time. if this time is BS and "ugly (sad)", then all that competition is a waste and too many lessons will go unlearned. thus, let the sabotaging elements win as easy as they designed it and watch them burn like they ("the minds running on/emerging from the genome") did so many times before.

porn can actually help in this regard. especially if your reward system is broken, you grew up way too conservative and in a web of engineered, beaten paths for exploration, "so you become like we want you".

Re: The demographic future of humanity: facts and consequences [pdf]

#277

I'm probably going to get in trouble for this, but the population numbers and statistics for Africa are totally unreliable. Fertility and total population are all wrong. The DRC is said to have 100M people, but check out satellite imaging. There's no chance -- and I mean none -- that it actually has 100M people. Unless 9-out-of-10 inhabitants live in the woods under tree cover, the actual population of the country is…

Thank you for this. Nigerian here, and I have to say that you hit the nail squarely on the head. Population counts in Nigeria are deeply political and essentially every region/state is motivated to fake/overestimate their headcount to get a bigger chunk of the oil revenue, which is pretty much the most significant slice of gov. revenue. But, once you dig into the figures, you realize it'd be a miracle if Nigeria has…

Are there any proxy for population count? Like may be mobile users, I understand people use more than one.

Re: The demographic future of humanity: facts and consequences [pdf]

#278
post #120

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The fertility rate is falling everywhere, even countries that have extensive childcare and maternity/paternity leave. Sweden grants 68 weeks of shared parental leave and their TFR is at 1.45. There is nothing authentic about porn, what a strange comment. Sure, it hacks the reward system of the brain in the same way that a slot machine does, but this does absolutely nothing to promote families.

> Sweden grants 68 weeks of shared parental leave and their TFR is at 1.45. I speculate that a different thing is happening in Europe. Every time I hear European takes on issues, it feels like Europe is post-religion, post-values, post-meaning. Everything is relative; pleasure is the only personal goal, and not harming others is the only external goal. Why even have kids? Why get married? It's a lot of work, plus the…

"it feels like Europe is post-religion"

You say that likes it's a bad thing?

Re: The demographic future of humanity: facts and consequences [pdf]

#279

Funny, I just wrapped a blog post about this: https://green.spacedino.net/i-dont-worry-about-population-de... Good presentation by the author that reaffirms my own opinions about the topic, specifically that while it sucks and cripples the social welfare programs our (deceased) elders built on the theory of continued population and productivity growth, it's also an issue we can fix with coordination between powers an…

I'm a single, gay man. During two of my last major existential crises, for about two weeks following, I noticed a marked turn of my thoughts and feelings towards having (biological) children. Stuff like, "If I'd had a kid at such-and-such age, how old would they be now?", "How would I manage if a child was suddenly in my life?", and "Oh god, my line stops with me panic ". For a number of reasons, I am extremely unlik…

> During two of my last major existential crises, for about two weeks following, I noticed a marked turn of my thoughts and feelings towards having (biological) children.

I have thought about this a lot over the years and your comment only enforces my opinion: we think more about procreation and having children when we are in more survivally stressful situation. That's why developed societies have less children and poor people have more: rich people or people with enough wealth to live comfortably don't have a lot of children because they don't face death every day and don't feel the need to spread their genes.

Re: The demographic future of humanity: facts and consequences [pdf]

#280
post #120

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The fertility rate is falling everywhere, even countries that have extensive childcare and maternity/paternity leave. Sweden grants 68 weeks of shared parental leave and their TFR is at 1.45. There is nothing authentic about porn, what a strange comment. Sure, it hacks the reward system of the brain in the same way that a slot machine does, but this does absolutely nothing to promote families.

> Sweden grants 68 weeks of shared parental leave and their TFR is at 1.45. I speculate that a different thing is happening in Europe. Every time I hear European takes on issues, it feels like Europe is post-religion, post-values, post-meaning. Everything is relative; pleasure is the only personal goal, and not harming others is the only external goal. Why even have kids? Why get married? It's a lot of work, plus the…

FWIW I'm French.

> I speculate that a different thing is happening in Europe. Every time I hear European takes on issues, it feels like Europe is post-religion, post-values, post-meaning. Everything is relative; pleasure is the only personal goal, and not harming others is the only external goal. Why even have kids? Why get married? It's a lot of work,

Yes, to all this.

> plus there's a widely-held belief that Europeans/Westerners in general bear generational guilt because of what colonizers did in the 1500s anyway, so it feels virtuous to voluntarily decline as a civilization, freeing up more oil and resources for the developing world.

Uh? I've never heard about it in the media. The only thing vaguely similar would be the focus on minimizing our resource consumption so that our kids doesn't suffer "too much" about the man-made climate change, but usually the focus is about buying less thing, using renewable energy, not making fewer children.

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