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Claude is the drug, Cursor is the dealer

middlelayer.substack.com

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Re: Claude is the drug, Cursor is the dealer

#42
post #6

I don't know, it seems like I'm the minority but I like Cursor. I think it adds value beyond the terminal style editors. Yes it relies on the Claude model but I get a lot of value from the visual component, history, auto-complete, etc. Couldn't you make the same argument around something like S3? How many companies are basically S3 wrappers? Or companies that use general AWS infra and make it slightly better. There c…

Claude Code with current IDE integration is already very good. Only thing missing is completion that Cursor is pretty good at.

For me VScode with Github Copilot + Claude Code hits the sweet spot

Re: Claude is the drug, Cursor is the dealer

#43
post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is new to me. Are you saying the people producing the drugs make very little?

yeah, this makes no sense. Don't the cartels control all aspects from production to distribution?

Yes, but the distribution (of a highly addictive product) is what sells. Not the raw ingredients or manufacturing, per se.

Re: Claude is the drug, Cursor is the dealer

#44
The article's headline is great and it delivers the message clearly. But the whole premise to support the message is very assumptive - "there is no moat". There is a lot moat in cursor, bolt, lovable. The same way there is moat in the chat apps of openai, anthropic, gemini...

They say there is no moat, but in fact, a feature in anthropic takes a good few months up to a year to appear on openai chatapp, and the same is true vice versa.

You could say some of those issues are solvable by allocating more money, and resources, which might be true, and it could be true that it would be beneficial for openai to develop their own cursor platform in the future, to get better margins. But in reality, who knows when that future would come? Maybe by then cursor will have much more moat and entering the market would be much more difficult. Maybe openai will continue developing their core product and entering other domains will not be worth the effort.

Currently, LLMs as a product have not been solved. All companies operate at a lose in order to rise the top, and we still don't know how it will be monetized in the future. But as it stands - there is already moat, moat in infrastructure - even though a few years ago they said that llms have no moat, now there is already a strong set of features and "agents" that deliver us the deep reasoning, online searching, and multimodal experience.

So, there is moat. But moat can accumulate over time. For the article to be true - it should prove the the current moat is low, and it can not accumulate.

Re: Claude is the drug, Cursor is the dealer

#45

Everyone is fighting for their view of the world right now and for those of us who do not have any investment in the success of one of the models, it feels like pure speculation at this point. I don't think there's a human on this planet who can even predict the state of the industry in 3 years. In my entire time in the industry, I have always felt like I had a good line of sight three years away. Even when the iphon…

It’s exciting, isn’t it? I’ve been programming for a quarter century now and this is the first time in 20 years that the future of tech is exciting again and the world is software’s oyster. Can’t wait for AI 2.0 and ads :(

Is it though ? I feel like what ML can achieve is amazing, but, call me a pessimist, I'm bracing for the influx of elaborate scams, propaganda, deep fakes etc who will manage to drive a wedge even further in our society than social networks did. As for programming, my skills are not good enough not to risk an atrophy if I use code completion. I do ask Claude for feedback though. I've always been a tech enthusiast but this is the first time I want to build a cabin in the woods and live off-grid. The tech itself is amazing but I'm not looking forward to all the slop we're going to be flooded with.

Re: Claude is the drug, Cursor is the dealer

#46
post #17

I know this isn’t the point of the article, but that’s not how the drug trade works at all. The producers make very little. The real money is in the logistics. Which you could argue is the cloud providers but the analogy isn’t great anyway.

This is new to me. Are you saying the people producing the drugs make very little?

Yes. For cocaine, for example, they have large farmer networks that cultivate coca, harvest and process it lightly (drying, etc.). The cartels then finish the process and undertake the logistics of shipping it across borders, into the US, or across the Atlantic into Europe.

This logistical leg is where most of the work is done since you have to:

Maintain large slush funds for bribing law enforcement.

Run workshops and technicians that strip civilians cars, embed cocaine in the nooks and hand them over to American civilians to drive over the border.

Hire engineers from Pakistani universities to build narco-submarines in riverine deltas, which are then used to cross the Atlantic for European supplies.

Maintain contact with your African coastal syndicates who have another trans-Saharan route for getting drugs into Europe.

Run payroll for your workforce (this is a business after all).

Maintain a decently trained fighting force to slaughter enemies that encroach on your turf. Or informants, uncompromising cops, politicians, etc. This includes training, paying, initiating them, and hiring good experienced fighters. Right now, it's credibly reported that Mexican cartels are volunteering to fight in Ukraine to gain experience with drones and other UAVs to expand their war-making capabilities.

Hire chemistry undergrads from local STEM universities to turn synthetic precursors from Asia into fentanyl, etc.

So, just like African cocoa farmers and American growers see just a tiny slice of the profit the end-products produce, the cartels are in the logistics & firepower business; they've outsourced a huge chunk of the business to growers, just like their peers in the chocolate and grocery business.

Re: Claude is the drug, Cursor is the dealer

#47
Imagine you're studying, for example math, and you have to learn calculus, and you're living in a dormitory with a colleague, who's great at integration calculus, and every time you get another integration function puzzle to solve, this guy (or gal) pops up and says "it's 2*e^2/x+C dx", "it's e^2+C dx", "it's sin(x)/cos(x)+C dx" after 5 milliseconds, even before you fully comprehend the function...

I have a question for you

  will you be able to pass the exam at the midterm?

Re: Claude is the drug, Cursor is the dealer

#48

Everyone is fighting for their view of the world right now and for those of us who do not have any investment in the success of one of the models, it feels like pure speculation at this point. I don't think there's a human on this planet who can even predict the state of the industry in 3 years. In my entire time in the industry, I have always felt like I had a good line of sight three years away. Even when the iphon…

I really like this. It feels like the only inevitability is change. Change, to some extent, not yet known.

Re: Claude is the drug, Cursor is the dealer

#49
post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s exciting, isn’t it? I’ve been programming for a quarter century now and this is the first time in 20 years that the future of tech is exciting again and the world is software’s oyster. Can’t wait for AI 2.0 and ads :(

Is it though ? I feel like what ML can achieve is amazing, but, call me a pessimist, I'm bracing for the influx of elaborate scams, propaganda, deep fakes etc who will manage to drive a wedge even further in our society than social networks did. As for programming, my skills are not good enough not to risk an atrophy if I use code completion. I do ask Claude for feedback though. I've always been a tech enthusiast but…

Oh absolutely. If the history of the internet, social media, and smartphones is anything to go by, those negative consequences are coming like a freight train and this will all end in tears in a decade or two. Or even sooner, because that cycle seems to be accelerating too - education probably being the prime example.

But like the OP said, we can’t even predict what’s going to happen even three years out so I’ve just resigned myself to “going with the flow” and enjoying the ride as much as I can. If the negative consequences are coming for us, might as well get as much benefit as we can now while we’re all still wide eyed and bushy tailed.

Re: Claude is the drug, Cursor is the dealer

#50
post #47

Imagine you're studying, for example math, and you have to learn calculus, and you're living in a dormitory with a colleague, who's great at integration calculus, and every time you get another integration function puzzle to solve, this guy (or gal) pops up and says "it's 2*e^2/x+C dx", "it's e^2+C dx", "it's sin(x)/cos(x)+C dx" after 5 milliseconds, even before you fully comprehend the function... I have a question…

Do you also oppose calculators for the same reason?
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