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Claude is the drug, Cursor is the dealer

middlelayer.substack.com

31–40 of 125 posts

Re: Claude is the drug, Cursor is the dealer

#31
post #17

I know this isn’t the point of the article, but that’s not how the drug trade works at all. The producers make very little. The real money is in the logistics. Which you could argue is the cloud providers but the analogy isn’t great anyway.

This is new to me. Are you saying the people producing the drugs make very little?

yeah, this makes no sense. Don't the cartels control all aspects from production to distribution?

Re: Claude is the drug, Cursor is the dealer

#32

Everyone is fighting for their view of the world right now and for those of us who do not have any investment in the success of one of the models, it feels like pure speculation at this point. I don't think there's a human on this planet who can even predict the state of the industry in 3 years. In my entire time in the industry, I have always felt like I had a good line of sight three years away. Even when the iphon…

It’s exciting, isn’t it? I’ve been programming for a quarter century now and this is the first time in 20 years that the future of tech is exciting again and the world is software’s oyster.

Can’t wait for AI 2.0 and ads :(

Re: Claude is the drug, Cursor is the dealer

#33
post #3

I do a ridiculous amount of dumb shit with cursor without paying extra for it and I can't be the only one. There is just no way they will ever make a profit with their current all-you-can-eat model. Like there have been times I have just copy and pasted code into a cursor window for the AI to add when I could have just pasted it myself just because it makes the context easier to deal with. However, they will eventual…

You are not the only one.

"Revert the changes to ..." 4 zillion tokens... 10 seconds...

Instead of > git checkout

just to keep Cursor in the loop.

I assume I have probably eaten up my $20/month in tokens just on stuff like that.

Re: Claude is the drug, Cursor is the dealer

#34

Everyone is fighting for their view of the world right now and for those of us who do not have any investment in the success of one of the models, it feels like pure speculation at this point. I don't think there's a human on this planet who can even predict the state of the industry in 3 years. In my entire time in the industry, I have always felt like I had a good line of sight three years away. Even when the iphon…

Nice to see some balanced skepticism rather than the constant barrage of prognostication and bold opinions stated as fact. This kind of take doesn’t drive engagement though.

Re: Claude is the drug, Cursor is the dealer

#36

Everyone is fighting for their view of the world right now and for those of us who do not have any investment in the success of one of the models, it feels like pure speculation at this point. I don't think there's a human on this planet who can even predict the state of the industry in 3 years. In my entire time in the industry, I have always felt like I had a good line of sight three years away. Even when the iphon…

Agreed.

The trick I've always used in these circumstances is the cynical approach. That is assume nothing changes. If it does change, adopt late, rather than burn all your time, money and energy on churn and experimentation.

In the last 35 years of doing this, I've seen perhaps 10% of technology actually stick around for more than a few years. I'll adopt at maturity and discard when it's thoroughly obsolete.

Being fintech, no technology so far has fundamentally changed what business we do or even how it's done for a long time even if we pretend it does. A lot of the changes have just been a cost naively written off through arbitrary justification or keeping up with trends. 99% of what we do is CRUD, shit reports and batch processing, just like it was when it was S/390.

Even fewer things have had an ROI or a real customer benefit. Then again we have actual customers not investors.

Re: Claude is the drug, Cursor is the dealer

#37
post #13
post #6

I don't know, it seems like I'm the minority but I like Cursor. I think it adds value beyond the terminal style editors. Yes it relies on the Claude model but I get a lot of value from the visual component, history, auto-complete, etc. Couldn't you make the same argument around something like S3? How many companies are basically S3 wrappers? Or companies that use general AWS infra and make it slightly better. There c…

It's not really the same because the provider in this case isn't necessarily shipping a traditional service, they're shipping intelligence. We've confused APIs as the end-state for providers. Providers are going to eat every abstraction along the way in their delivery of intelligent capabilities. Claude Code is just the start. A true agentic intelligent capability that shifts a paradigm for ways of working. It will e…

> Providers are going to eat every abstraction along the way in their delivery of intelligent capabilities. [...] There's a lot of talk around economics. What is going to be more economic than a provider building abstractions/margin-optimizations around the tokens, and shipping directly to consumer. Vs token arbitrage.

The strongman counter-argument would be that specialized interfaces to AI will always require substantial amounts of work to create and maintain.

If true, then similar to Microsoft, it might make more financial sense for Anthropic et al. to cede those specialized markets to others, focus on their core platform product, take a cut from many different specialized products, and end up making more as the addressable market broadens.

The major AI model providers substantially investing in specialized interfaces would suggest they're pessimistic about revolutionary core model improvements and are thus looking to vertically integration to preserve margin / moat.

But relatively speaking, it doesn't seem like interfaces are being inordinately invested in, and coding seems such an obvious agentic target (and dogfoodable learning opportunity!) that it shouldn't prompt tea leaf reading.

Re: Claude is the drug, Cursor is the dealer

#38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Claude Code with current IDE integration is already very good. Only thing missing is completion that Cursor is pretty good at.

I'm super excited to try the Cursor CLI https://cursor.com/cli

Claude Code has always been unparalleled. It's almost as if other AI CLI devs have no idea what they're doing.

Re: Claude is the drug, Cursor is the dealer

#39
post #13
post #6

I don't know, it seems like I'm the minority but I like Cursor. I think it adds value beyond the terminal style editors. Yes it relies on the Claude model but I get a lot of value from the visual component, history, auto-complete, etc. Couldn't you make the same argument around something like S3? How many companies are basically S3 wrappers? Or companies that use general AWS infra and make it slightly better. There c…

It's not really the same because the provider in this case isn't necessarily shipping a traditional service, they're shipping intelligence. We've confused APIs as the end-state for providers. Providers are going to eat every abstraction along the way in their delivery of intelligent capabilities. Claude Code is just the start. A true agentic intelligent capability that shifts a paradigm for ways of working. It will e…

> It shows that Anthropic is a signaling that the leading providers will no longer just train models.

I think it instead (or also?) shows a related but orthogonal signal: that the ability and resources to train models are a strong competitive advantage. This is most obvious with deep research and I haven’t seen any wrapper or open source project achieve anywhere near the same quality as Gemini/Claude deep research, but Claude Code is a close runner up.

Re: Claude is the drug, Cursor is the dealer

#40

Everyone is fighting for their view of the world right now and for those of us who do not have any investment in the success of one of the models, it feels like pure speculation at this point. I don't think there's a human on this planet who can even predict the state of the industry in 3 years. In my entire time in the industry, I have always felt like I had a good line of sight three years away. Even when the iphon…

You clearly are selling something, too: doubt. (Note your appeal to your own authority.)

Don't kid yourself. Skepticism is not neutrality. These days throwing shade is a growth industry. There's money to be made shorting just like there is going long. Neither is the objective, disinterested position, although skepticism always enjoys the appearance of prudence, at least to the ignorant.

Anyone who says they're not trying to sell you something lacks self-awareness about what they themselves have been sold.

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