Open models are going to win long-term. Anthropics' own research has to use OSS models [0]. China is demonstrating how quickly companies can iterate on open models, allowing smaller teams access and augmentation to the abilities of a model without paying the training cost. My personal prediction is that the US foundational model makers will OSS something close to N-1 for the next 1-3 iterations. The CAPEX for the fou…
In this setup OSS models could be more than enough and capture the market but I don't see where the value would be to a multitude of specialized models we have to train.