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The Dollar Is Dead

mathmeetsmoney.substack.com

101–110 of 367 posts

Re: The Dollar Is Dead

#101

The country is getting forced by markets into realizing pain for overspending, and only congress can manage this pain. Manage the pain, not remove it is key here. Manage it. Conrgess is totally inept and ridiculously politicized, so it's unlikely they will do anything except make the problem worse. That leaves only the natural fall out of refusing to acknowledge a financial injury before going out on the field to pla…

There is no "overspending." There is only undertaxing. The debt is literally just the accumulated difference between spending and taxation. If extreme wealth was taxed, the debt would be zero. The point isn't even to "pay for spending" but to enforce a functional social contract, and to limit the political and democratic distortions created by extreme inequality. "Markets" should not have a veto on policy in a democr…

Europe has repeatedly tried to soak the rich, and the results are always the same: the rich move their wealth somewhere else and you end up breaking even or even reducing your tax revenue.

France: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/dec/31/france-drops-7...

UK: https://obr.uk/box/effect-of-the-additional-rate-of-income-t...

Sweden: https://eml.berkeley.edu/~saez/course/seimAEJ17wealth.pdf

It's interesting to note that even when these tax schemes were repealed, the damage had already been done and the wealth did not return.

Here's a real plan for America:

Step 1: have a tax rate that's a little less than our peers

Step 2: return spending to pre-Covid rates circa 2019

Re: The Dollar Is Dead

#102

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’m somewhat confident in the Euro until India or Africa grows to be a potential competitor. Whether they can achieve a similar risk profile remains to be seen of course. Russia is a non starter, and China is unlikely to make the political change necessary to be a reserve currency.

If you think the US has a debt problem, the Eurozone is much worse. At least America has economic growth along with debt growth. The EU has slightly less debt but zero economic growth and almost zero population growth (and negative organic population growth). Africa's GDP is tiny and will not a serious contender for any sort of reserve currency status for many decades. I can't imagine a wave of automation will do any…

Even Europe has huge parts of their economy backed by the USA.

NATO funding, drug R&D and subsidized pricing, even sovereign wealth funds are invested in the USA. Their only energy option outside of the USA is Russia.

Postwar Europe as we know it does not exist without the USA.

Re: The Dollar Is Dead

#103
If the world continues to become more protectionist, does the USD need to be replaced by a single global reserve? It could just be a multi-polar period with a bunch of regional reserve currencies. Global liquidity backed by a single reserve isn't required if WTO dies, and trade is negotiated bilaterally

Re: The Dollar Is Dead

#104

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As a counterpoint, confidence in US courts (particularly the federal courts) is rapidly declining — both among the public and among those who operate within the court systems.

This is about how the courts operate with regards to international business disputes, US has proven record about being impartial in these matters.

Even if that is true, the US's proven record does not include the current administration.

Re: The Dollar Is Dead

#105

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Biden is competent and chooses competent people. Trump is NOT competent and hire incompetent people and fires competent people.

The debate performance says otherwise

I think it’s fair to compare the “administrations”, not necessarily the individual. Biden’s administration is relatively far more competent than the Trump administration, in large part because Trump doesn’t care what the rest of his administration thinks, so long as it benefits him personally. Biden, with all his flaws, was not egotistical.

Re: The Dollar Is Dead

#106
post #32
post #17

USD strength comes from military. Just as it was the case with all other currencies in the past. Do you see anyone challenging the US in a conflict? China won’t even invade Taiwan because they are afraid. ‘Nuff said.

My friends in Taiwan think they will be invaded before 2030 so we’ll see

If the PRC were to do it, I would imagine you would try to do it under the Trump administration as he is anti-interventionist and sees the world as a series of regional fiefdoms led by the strongest regional player--Asia, to him, is China's region. This is in sharp contrast to every prior US administration and with the Biden administration in particular coming out with the strongest rhetoric regarding any potential invasion.

Re: The Dollar Is Dead

#107

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I’m somewhat confident in the Euro out of curiosity, why do you believe that?

Stable governance and a business friendly enough environment (SAP is the most valuable company in Europe currently, for example; business can be done there). Even with populism and right wing extremes popping up there, I’m more confident in Europe staying on the rails vs the US (as it relates to currency stability).

Huge portions of the European economy are backed by a strong USA, and that doesn't include NATO/defense subsidies.

Unless they're paying Russia for energy, they're buying oil and LNG in dollars.

Re: The Dollar Is Dead

#108
post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you even need singular global currency in modern world? Where every transaction can be in essence instant if there was desire. And everything is digital. Overall it is rather different world and things can be done different than before.

The world doesn’t necessarily need it, but the US does need it to be the dollar due to the massive deficits it runs.

The US dollar provides a massive stabilizing effect on the global economy, which we don't need but it is nice.

Re: The Dollar Is Dead

#109
I feel like there was a lot of analysis of signals in this blog, but at the end is the only thing that matters: The dollar has power if and only if belief in the vast US institutions holds. I would extend that to go beyond our government, as the US private sector and cultural outputs are also incredibly powerful in this world.

Re: The Dollar Is Dead

#110
post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My friends in Taiwan think they will be invaded before 2030 so we’ll see

If the PRC were to do it, I would imagine you would try to do it under the Trump administration as he is anti-interventionist and sees the world as a series of regional fiefdoms led by the strongest regional player--Asia, to him, is China's region. This is in sharp contrast to every prior US administration and with the Biden administration in particular coming out with the strongest rhetoric regarding any potential i…

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