I used to think that the dominance of the US dollar in world trade would fade as technologies like crytocurrencies rise, but the dominance of stablecoins pegged to the US dollar has shown that without, or even despite, policies and practices of the US government, society is adamant that USD be the reserve currency.
The Dollar Is Dead
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Re: The Dollar Is Dead
#32USD strength comes from military. Just as it was the case with all other currencies in the past. Do you see anyone challenging the US in a conflict? China won’t even invade Taiwan because they are afraid. ‘Nuff said.
My friends in Taiwan think they will be invaded before 2030 so we’ll see
Re: The Dollar Is Dead
#33Earlier quoted context omitted.
I agree with you. I don't even think in the near future there will be a single global reserve currency. There will be multiple ones, all of which weaker in terms of power and influence than the dollar.
Do you even need singular global currency in modern world? Where every transaction can be in essence instant if there was desire. And everything is digital. Overall it is rather different world and things can be done different than before.
The world doesn’t necessarily need it, but the US does need it to be the dollar due to the massive deficits it runs.
Re: The Dollar Is Dead
#34Substack has got to be the worst medium for articles with graphs. There seems to be no way to zoom in or view a larger version of tge image.
I don’t disagree.
I usually pipe Substack to markdown and then just open it in my favorite markdown reader.
Re: The Dollar Is Dead
#35I used to think that the dominance of the US dollar in world trade would fade as technologies like crytocurrencies rise, but the dominance of stablecoins pegged to the US dollar has shown that without, or even despite, policies and practices of the US government, society is adamant that USD be the reserve currency.
It's still early days. If the dollar suffers from any serious shocks, or inflation accelerates, stablecoins will peg themselves to something else, or to a basket of currencies or commodities. I don't see anything that stops them from jumping ship the minute the going gets tough, and it would presumably be irrational not to.
Re: The Dollar Is Dead
#36Reserve currency may maintain its status even after the empire behind it has collapsed. America may decline but the dollar will go on for a number of decades
Re: The Dollar Is Dead
#37USD strength comes from military. Just as it was the case with all other currencies in the past. Do you see anyone challenging the US in a conflict? China won’t even invade Taiwan because they are afraid. ‘Nuff said.
The dollar has lost 15% vis-a-vis the euro this year, how does your theory explain this?
Re: The Dollar Is Dead
#38The country is getting forced by markets into realizing pain for overspending, and only congress can manage this pain. Manage the pain, not remove it is key here. Manage it. Conrgess is totally inept and ridiculously politicized, so it's unlikely they will do anything except make the problem worse. That leaves only the natural fall out of refusing to acknowledge a financial injury before going out on the field to pla…
>Which means that people who cannot bury their wealth in (non-treasury!) assets will pay off the debt.
I.e. people who need to work, which means it disproportionately affects the young.
This is what has to happen in a democratic society with a flattened and eventual top heavy population pyramid that will not vote to reduce old people benefits.
Re: The Dollar Is Dead
#39I’ve been reading this article for decades.
Re: The Dollar Is Dead
#40NPR’s Planet Money had a podcast about this a few months ago. I see several assertions and claims that it deals with made here without any evidence or discussion as to why.
TLDR: Yes the dollar is weakening as a reserve currency. But the decline has been long and slow and it is not clear what, if anything, will replace it.
https://www.npr.org/2025/05/09/1250191994/reserve-currency-d...