241–250 of 294 posts
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Anecdotally, "skype" was once synonymous with video calls but it's pretty much never used now.
It's literally never used now, because it was taken offline earlier this year.
Given their current product offerings, I really don't see a way they could ever justify a $300B valuation unless they get everyone on the planet to subscribe to their $200/month plan. I'm calling it now: investors are gonna get burned hard on this one. Cause right now all they have is "well we are working on superintelligence" and to that I say "great, then what?". Even if they do make that breakthrough I don't see h…
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Firstly, the $200/m plan is at a loss, they'll make a profit on PAYG tokens, not plans. Secondly, this is looking very risky: they are at the bottom of the value chain and eventually they'll be running on razor thin margins like all actors who are at the bottom of the value chain. Anything they can offer is doable by their competitors (in Google's case, they can even do it cheaper due to ow ing the vertical which Ope…
Maybe the better analogy for LLM businesses isn’t SaaS but more like power generation. If AI really becomes that ubiquitous then OpenAI capturing that value is no less ridiculous than ComEd capturing the value of every application of electric power.
They do? The electric provider, last I checked, does notcapture the value of every application of electric power.
Some business uses (amongst other things) $1 of electricity to make a widget that they then sell $100 - the value there is captured by the business, not by the provider.
Same with tokens; the provider (OpenAI, Anthropic, whoever) provides tokens, but the business selling a solution using those tokens would be charging many orders of magnitude more for those tokens when those tokens are packed into the solution.
The provider can't just raise prices to capture the value (cos then the business would switch to a new provider, or if they all raise prices, the business would self-host), they have to compete with the business by selling the same solution.
Going back to the electric company analogy, if the electricity supplier wants to capture more of the value in the widget, they have to create the widget themselves and compete with the business who is currently creating the widget.
If the business has a moat of any type (including customer service, customisation, market differentiation, etc) the electricity provider is out of luck.
Given their current product offerings, I really don't see a way they could ever justify a $300B valuation unless they get everyone on the planet to subscribe to their $200/month plan. I'm calling it now: investors are gonna get burned hard on this one. Cause right now all they have is "well we are working on superintelligence" and to that I say "great, then what?". Even if they do make that breakthrough I don't see h…
> Even if they do make that breakthrough I don't see how that will equate to that kind of valuation The superintelligence breakthrough..? I don't think you realize what that word means. Every single white collar job could be automated immediately with a worker better than any human. Yes, superintelligence sounds fantastical because it is. Try to have some imagination. It's worth far more than 300 billion. Whether the…
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Firstly, the $200/m plan is at a loss, they'll make a profit on PAYG tokens, not plans. Secondly, this is looking very risky: they are at the bottom of the value chain and eventually they'll be running on razor thin margins like all actors who are at the bottom of the value chain. Anything they can offer is doable by their competitors (in Google's case, they can even do it cheaper due to ow ing the vertical which Ope…
The real revenue opportunity for OpenAI is advertising. More than 25% of Americans use ChatGPT instead of Google, and OpenAI has already announced partnership with Shopify to directly list products. But for now they are focused on market share. Google does not really own the complete AI stack, NVDA is extracting a lot of the value there. Google has two other impediments to doing what ChatGPT does. Googles entire busi…
No, it’s that Google Search doesn’t find anything anymore. You write a class name—it doesn’t index those anymore. So you revert to asking it a question about your bug, it’s no AI-fied enough. Perplexity and ChatGPT find what Google chose to stop indexing.
Google may be built around advertising, but certainly not around Search.
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The real revenue opportunity for OpenAI is advertising. More than 25% of Americans use ChatGPT instead of Google, and OpenAI has already announced partnership with Shopify to directly list products. But for now they are focused on market share. Google does not really own the complete AI stack, NVDA is extracting a lot of the value there. Google has two other impediments to doing what ChatGPT does. Googles entire busi…
Except Google search keeps growing per their last earnings report. You'd think if 25% of Americans have switched to ChatGPT it would have hit the numbers by now...
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Yes, you can do all those things, and critically, if the bottom falls out of the market, you can make that case to the US government, complete with a fear-based narrative (China!) and get bailed out by the American taxpayer.
It is even worse. The AI can build a profile of you and then feed you stuff that works on you. Not even fear, more like a personal bubble that feeds you stuff that works on you
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Firstly, the $200/m plan is at a loss, they'll make a profit on PAYG tokens, not plans. Secondly, this is looking very risky: they are at the bottom of the value chain and eventually they'll be running on razor thin margins like all actors who are at the bottom of the value chain. Anything they can offer is doable by their competitors (in Google's case, they can even do it cheaper due to ow ing the vertical which Ope…
The real revenue opportunity for OpenAI is advertising. More than 25% of Americans use ChatGPT instead of Google, and OpenAI has already announced partnership with Shopify to directly list products. But for now they are focused on market share. Google does not really own the complete AI stack, NVDA is extracting a lot of the value there. Google has two other impediments to doing what ChatGPT does. Googles entire busi…
Google doesn't use Nvidia hardware at all except offering it to customers on their cloud offerings. They don't use it for training nor do they use it for inference.
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They're currently "worth" 3.2 Stripes, which seems pretty absurd to me. (I'm now using 1 Stripe as a metric to measure the valuation of AI companies).
Do you think that is absurd because OpenAI is overvalued? Or because Stripe is overvalued? Or one of them is undervalued?
I think the AI companies disappearing would have a lot less impact.
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Counterexample- Facebook made Threads which has similar # users as Twitter now.
…. Does anyone actually use Threads? I’ve never once seen a threads link and I understood the user count was just because every facebook or IG or whatever user automatically got a generated account?