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OpenAI raises $8.3B at $300B valuation

nytimes.com

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Re: OpenAI raises $8.3B at $300B valuation

#181

Post by rvba »

adriand wrote: post #159
an0malous wrote: post #134

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You ask it to do the things that human analysts already currently do with the vast amounts of text, image, and video data they collect but at an unprecedented scale. You can extract what people are talking about, identify people, weapons, or objects in images, extract addresses, license plate numbers, or other identifying references. It can probably even detect when people are using coded language that won’t trigger…

Yes, you can do all those things, and critically, if the bottom falls out of the market, you can make that case to the US government, complete with a fear-based narrative (China!) and get bailed out by the American taxpayer.

It is even worse. The AI can build a profile of you and then feed you stuff that works on you.

Not even fear, more like a personal bubble that feeds you stuff that works on you

Re: OpenAI raises $8.3B at $300B valuation

#182

Post by IshKebab »

MangoCoffee wrote: post #78
_fat_santa wrote: post #52

Given their current product offerings, I really don't see a way they could ever justify a $300B valuation unless they get everyone on the planet to subscribe to their $200/month plan. I'm calling it now: investors are gonna get burned hard on this one. Cause right now all they have is "well we are working on superintelligence" and to that I say "great, then what?". Even if they do make that breakthrough I don't see h…

>I'm calling it now: investors are gonna get burned hard on this one. I'm in my late 40s. I'm Gen X. I lived through the glory days of the dotcom boom, when investors got burned for tons of money. But from the ashes of those bullshit companies, we got Amazon, Google, etc., which made investors rich beyond belief. SoftBank’s Masayoshi Son made a bet on Alibaba ($20 million, its stake now worth $72 billion), and he’s b…

I think he made a good profit on ARM, and probably most people wouldn't have called that. More than enough to cancel out WeWork. But looking at their overall value over 5 years... it's pretty random; you could have done just as well investing in index funds. He clearly got super lucky with Alibaba and once you're mega rich it's not hard to stay mega rich.

Re: OpenAI raises $8.3B at $300B valuation

#183

Post by mlboss »

nzealand wrote: post #99
lelanthran wrote: post #81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Firstly, the $200/m plan is at a loss, they'll make a profit on PAYG tokens, not plans. Secondly, this is looking very risky: they are at the bottom of the value chain and eventually they'll be running on razor thin margins like all actors who are at the bottom of the value chain. Anything they can offer is doable by their competitors (in Google's case, they can even do it cheaper due to ow ing the vertical which Ope…

The real revenue opportunity for OpenAI is advertising. More than 25% of Americans use ChatGPT instead of Google, and OpenAI has already announced partnership with Shopify to directly list products. But for now they are focused on market share. Google does not really own the complete AI stack, NVDA is extracting a lot of the value there. Google has two other impediments to doing what ChatGPT does. Googles entire busi…

I would argue that Google is even better place for advertising. All they need to do is enable advertising in Gemini. There is a whole ecosystem already in place for Google advertising.

Re: OpenAI raises $8.3B at $300B valuation

#186

Post by LZ_Khan »

eduardofcgo wrote: post #169
LZ_Khan wrote: post #153

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I feel like being at the bottom of the value chain is a mis-categorization. If you consider base LLM model as their sole offering I agree with you, but these companies have shown an eagerness to eat their way up the value chain. Agent mode, Search, Study Mode, AI code editors, are such examples of products that could be higher-on-the-chain startups but are offered in-house by OpenAI. This reminds me of Amazon choosin…

OpenAI valued at 300B will never be able to produce the same products "wrappers" that these 5 people startups are making. Same reason Facebook could not make Instagram, of Jira could never make bootcamp for example.

Counterexample- Facebook made Threads which has similar # users as Twitter now.

Re: OpenAI raises $8.3B at $300B valuation

#187

Post by minraws »

lelanthran wrote: post #81
_fat_santa wrote: post #52

Given their current product offerings, I really don't see a way they could ever justify a $300B valuation unless they get everyone on the planet to subscribe to their $200/month plan. I'm calling it now: investors are gonna get burned hard on this one. Cause right now all they have is "well we are working on superintelligence" and to that I say "great, then what?". Even if they do make that breakthrough I don't see h…

Firstly, the $200/m plan is at a loss, they'll make a profit on PAYG tokens, not plans. Secondly, this is looking very risky: they are at the bottom of the value chain and eventually they'll be running on razor thin margins like all actors who are at the bottom of the value chain. Anything they can offer is doable by their competitors (in Google's case, they can even do it cheaper due to ow ing the vertical which Ope…

I don't think they are at the bottom and that's the issue.

Nvidia is at the bottom or if we get charitable cloud providers.

They are the ones who would have the margins, from their rent seeking.

And to be frank other than consumers everyone else is at the fucking bottom..

Getting squeezed for user acquisition when the margins of the old and cheap internet software service don't exist.

Re: OpenAI raises $8.3B at $300B valuation

#188

Post by fisherjeff »

_fat_santa wrote: post #52

Given their current product offerings, I really don't see a way they could ever justify a $300B valuation unless they get everyone on the planet to subscribe to their $200/month plan. I'm calling it now: investors are gonna get burned hard on this one. Cause right now all they have is "well we are working on superintelligence" and to that I say "great, then what?". Even if they do make that breakthrough I don't see h…

Just picking a semi-related stock, NVDA trades at ~30x gross revenue, so a $300B "only" translates into ~$10B in revenue. And OpenAI can ask for a better multiplier because I'm sure they're forecasting a ton of growth and a ton of cost savings.

Re: OpenAI raises $8.3B at $300B valuation

#190

Post by cyberpunk »

LZ_Khan wrote: post #186
eduardofcgo wrote: post #169

Earlier quoted context omitted.

OpenAI valued at 300B will never be able to produce the same products "wrappers" that these 5 people startups are making. Same reason Facebook could not make Instagram, of Jira could never make bootcamp for example.

Counterexample- Facebook made Threads which has similar # users as Twitter now.

…. Does anyone actually use Threads? I’ve never once seen a threads link and I understood the user count was just because every facebook or IG or whatever user automatically got a generated account?
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