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OpenAI raises $8.3B at $300B valuation

nytimes.com

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Re: OpenAI raises $8.3B at $300B valuation

#121

Post by jstummbillig »

scottyah wrote: post #83
jstummbillig wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I guess it's obvious why anyone should be delighted to learn or care at all that a random set of engineers are now getting a relatively bigger share of all the money in the world.

ah, money is not a fixed resource. It is a made up system to track how much value people/groups are adding to the world. "share of all the money in the world" is a frequently quoted bad mental model, typically from people trying to bring others down

OpenAI, Google, and friends now hand out $10-20 M packages to a few hundred ML specialists worldwide, not because those engineers add more "value units" but because their skill set is brutally scarce.

Money is elastic, but relative slices still matter when the pie is made of houses, GPUs, and your grocery bill. Calling "share of all the money" a bad mental model is like saying gravity is a bad mental model because planes fly: True in the abstract, irrelevant when you hit the ground.

Re: OpenAI raises $8.3B at $300B valuation

#122

Post by jajko »

v5v3 wrote: post #74

What does OpenAI have over XAI to make such a difference in valuation? XAi includes x/twitter and lots of hardware and is valued at $113 billion https://www.eweek.com/news/elon-musk-xai-valuation-debt-pack...

It doesnt have an owner who is open nazi sympathiser and doesnt wage frequent petty verbal wars with most powerful person on the planet, at least on the paper?

trump could make musk go away in a blink, literally abd figuratively. He wont do it, probably, we will see.

Re: OpenAI raises $8.3B at $300B valuation

#124

Post by impossiblefork »

_fat_santa wrote: post #52

Given their current product offerings, I really don't see a way they could ever justify a $300B valuation unless they get everyone on the planet to subscribe to their $200/month plan. I'm calling it now: investors are gonna get burned hard on this one. Cause right now all they have is "well we are working on superintelligence" and to that I say "great, then what?". Even if they do make that breakthrough I don't see h…

It also seems that Google might be slightly ahead, since they claim to have released something in the style of their IMO-winning model and have the claim that it's useful to professional mathematicians.

I haven't tried it yet though.

Re: OpenAI raises $8.3B at $300B valuation

#125

Post by dmix »

nzealand wrote: post #99
lelanthran wrote: post #81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Firstly, the $200/m plan is at a loss, they'll make a profit on PAYG tokens, not plans. Secondly, this is looking very risky: they are at the bottom of the value chain and eventually they'll be running on razor thin margins like all actors who are at the bottom of the value chain. Anything they can offer is doable by their competitors (in Google's case, they can even do it cheaper due to ow ing the vertical which Ope…

The real revenue opportunity for OpenAI is advertising. More than 25% of Americans use ChatGPT instead of Google, and OpenAI has already announced partnership with Shopify to directly list products. But for now they are focused on market share. Google does not really own the complete AI stack, NVDA is extracting a lot of the value there. Google has two other impediments to doing what ChatGPT does. Googles entire busi…

I also believe the main business will be via APIs and integrations, but wouldn't be surprised on the consumer side if it ends up being on phones, in your house ala Alexa, in your car etc. Big brands typically win in B2C. Tons of affiliate and transactional potential (ie, do my grocery shopping or buy tshirt). That's assuming LLMs don't plateau and become generic with minor specialization like databases.

Re: OpenAI raises $8.3B at $300B valuation

#127

Post by Ekaros »

rwmj wrote: post #123
nabla9 wrote: post #118

OpenAI hits $12 billion in annualized revenue, The Information reports https://www.reuters.com/business/openai-hits-12-billion-annu...

Don't worry, they might be making a loss on each transaction but they'll make it up in volume..

They have invested how much money and still not producing enough volume?

Re: OpenAI raises $8.3B at $300B valuation

#128

Post by woeirua »

layer8 wrote: post #51
GiorgioG wrote: post #38

So how much more runway does this give OpenAPI? A year?

Less than a year. They spent $9B last year and are spending more than that this year.

Yeah, I thought they were trying to raise $40B. $9B doesn't even cover the bills for this upcoming year.

Re: OpenAI raises $8.3B at $300B valuation

#129

Post by Ekaros »

rich_sasha wrote: post #105

How much do investors make on average on VC? I mean, OpenAI is hardly a startup. But VC money can't be a one way street forever. So either: - VC invests on the whole sensibly and makes a return that justifies 10-15 year lock-in - VC has somehow changed and is now unsustainable, it is a one way cash flow and it will blow up like MBS did - VC sustainably delivers mediocre returns and gets some money in, some money out,…

How often playing with someone else's money happens? Investing in the top name sounds prudent to your investors or at least is reasonably inside the lines. Then you just skim of your cut on the capital given to you to invest. And while this is happening the numbers going up makes the valuations look good. Even if all the money was already burned.

Re: OpenAI raises $8.3B at $300B valuation

#130

Post by zozbot234 »

MangoCoffee wrote: post #78
_fat_santa wrote: post #52

Given their current product offerings, I really don't see a way they could ever justify a $300B valuation unless they get everyone on the planet to subscribe to their $200/month plan. I'm calling it now: investors are gonna get burned hard on this one. Cause right now all they have is "well we are working on superintelligence" and to that I say "great, then what?". Even if they do make that breakthrough I don't see h…

>I'm calling it now: investors are gonna get burned hard on this one. I'm in my late 40s. I'm Gen X. I lived through the glory days of the dotcom boom, when investors got burned for tons of money. But from the ashes of those bullshit companies, we got Amazon, Google, etc., which made investors rich beyond belief. SoftBank’s Masayoshi Son made a bet on Alibaba ($20 million, its stake now worth $72 billion), and he’s b…

Amazon is technically a dotcom company. (I.e. it was around, and quite successful, during the dotcom era.)
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