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OpenAI raises $8.3B at $300B valuation

nytimes.com

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Re: OpenAI raises $8.3B at $300B valuation

#101

Post by itkovian_ »

vessenes wrote: post #73
_fat_santa wrote: post #52

Given their current product offerings, I really don't see a way they could ever justify a $300B valuation unless they get everyone on the planet to subscribe to their $200/month plan. I'm calling it now: investors are gonna get burned hard on this one. Cause right now all they have is "well we are working on superintelligence" and to that I say "great, then what?". Even if they do make that breakthrough I don't see h…

Startup-land valuations are for PR. The real negotiation is in the discount and the cap, warrants, etc. That $8.3b came in early, and was oversubscribed, so the terms are likely favorable to oAI, but if an investor puts in $1b at a $300b valuation (cap) with a 20% discount to the next round, and the company raises another round at $30b in two months; good news: they got in at a $24b price. To your point on Anthropic…

I’m gonna go ahead and guess they didn’t raise 8.3b on SAFEs

Re: OpenAI raises $8.3B at $300B valuation

#102

Post by orionsbelt »

fkyoureadthedoc wrote: post #93
orionsbelt wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Maybe before you judge someone you should know the facts. They have basically done that, per the below statement by the rest of the family. I have a mentally ill family member and they are enormously difficult and are their own worst enemy and refuse help; there’s a reason many end up homeless. “Our family loves Annie and is very concerned about her well-being. Caring for a family member who faces mental health chall…

Where did I say what anyone else did or didn't do, or judge anybody?

Apologies if I misread your post, but by calling Sam a psychopath in the same post, it seemed to imply that you would have offered her treatment that he did not.

Re: OpenAI raises $8.3B at $300B valuation

#103

Post by ozzy6009 »

onlyrealcuzzo wrote: post #42

Didn't OpenAI's last raise in March value them at $300B [1]? [1] https://www.channelinsider.com/news-and-trends/us/open-ai-fu... Crunchbase appears to list it as $157B [2], but I seem to find the other terms & valuations more commonly. [2] https://news.crunchbase.com/venture/biggest-rounds-october-2...

Looks like it is talking about the same thing:

> OpenAI has raised $8.3 billion at a $300 billion valuation, months ahead of schedule, as part of its plan to secure $40 billion in funding this year, DealBook has learned. Back in March, OpenAI announced its ambitious funding plans, with SoftBank committing to provide $30 billion by year-end.

Re: OpenAI raises $8.3B at $300B valuation

#104

Post by alfalfasprout »

svantana wrote: post #68
_fat_santa wrote: post #52

Given their current product offerings, I really don't see a way they could ever justify a $300B valuation unless they get everyone on the planet to subscribe to their $200/month plan. I'm calling it now: investors are gonna get burned hard on this one. Cause right now all they have is "well we are working on superintelligence" and to that I say "great, then what?". Even if they do make that breakthrough I don't see h…

> get everyone on the planet to subscribe to their $200/month plan Not necessarily. Google is valued 7x that and most people don't pay them anything. They just make ridiculous money from ads for insurance and loans. Meanwhile, ChatGPT is the #1 app and the #5 website, which should really worry google (and it does by all accounts).

Yes, and they have a monopoly on the ad market. Whereas a SOTA LLM can be used to bootstrap an almost-as-good LLM. The gap is shrinking between SOTA models and there's now fierce competition.

Moreover, ads are a very high ROI business. The profit margins on SOTA LLM offerings are razor thin or negative.

Re: OpenAI raises $8.3B at $300B valuation

#105

Post by rich_sasha »

How much do investors make on average on VC? I mean, OpenAI is hardly a startup. But VC money can't be a one way street forever. So either:

- VC invests on the whole sensibly and makes a return that justifies 10-15 year lock-in

- VC has somehow changed and is now unsustainable, it is a one way cash flow and it will blow up like MBS did

- VC sustainably delivers mediocre returns and gets some money in, some money out, but nothing special

Im not sure which it might be.

Re: OpenAI raises $8.3B at $300B valuation

#106

Post by zeroonetwothree »

rich_sasha wrote: post #105

How much do investors make on average on VC? I mean, OpenAI is hardly a startup. But VC money can't be a one way street forever. So either: - VC invests on the whole sensibly and makes a return that justifies 10-15 year lock-in - VC has somehow changed and is now unsustainable, it is a one way cash flow and it will blow up like MBS did - VC sustainably delivers mediocre returns and gets some money in, some money out,…

I would bet on #3

Re: OpenAI raises $8.3B at $300B valuation

#107

Post by delusional »

an0malous wrote: post #72
_fat_santa wrote: post #52

Given their current product offerings, I really don't see a way they could ever justify a $300B valuation unless they get everyone on the planet to subscribe to their $200/month plan. I'm calling it now: investors are gonna get burned hard on this one. Cause right now all they have is "well we are working on superintelligence" and to that I say "great, then what?". Even if they do make that breakthrough I don't see h…

They’re going to sell to the military, that’s why they hired the former NSA director into their board. The current state of AI is a perfect mass surveillance technology.

> The current state of AI is a perfect mass surveillance technology.

How? Are you just going to ask the LLM about who is doing the crime? OpenAI is not an "AI company", it's an "LLM company".

Re: OpenAI raises $8.3B at $300B valuation

#108

Post by ls612 »

rich_sasha wrote: post #105

How much do investors make on average on VC? I mean, OpenAI is hardly a startup. But VC money can't be a one way street forever. So either: - VC invests on the whole sensibly and makes a return that justifies 10-15 year lock-in - VC has somehow changed and is now unsustainable, it is a one way cash flow and it will blow up like MBS did - VC sustainably delivers mediocre returns and gets some money in, some money out,…

#4: VC takes more risk (in the form of portfolio volatility on longer time horizons; look at the post dot com bust returns) and since capital markets in the US are reasonably efficient they get more expected returns for that risk.

Re: OpenAI raises $8.3B at $300B valuation

#109

Post by v5v3 »

jsnell wrote: post #94
v5v3 wrote: post #74

What does OpenAI have over XAI to make such a difference in valuation? XAi includes x/twitter and lots of hardware and is valued at $113 billion https://www.eweek.com/news/elon-musk-xai-valuation-debt-pack...

XAI does not include Twitter, as far as I know? Aren't they separate entities? But Twitter can't be worth more than a couple of tens of billions at the most. Things OpenAI has that XAI doesn't: Hundreds of millions, if not already a billion, active users. A household brand-name. >$10B in revenue. In comparison XAI's revenue appears to be in the hundreds of millions/year and their brand is currently in the gutter afte…

X was sold to xAI earlier this year.

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ceqjq11202ro

Re: OpenAI raises $8.3B at $300B valuation

#110

Post by paulcole »

jamespo wrote: post #32
paulcole wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why do you want to reward effort? I’ll just push a boulder uphill all day and accomplish nothing and then come with my hand out. Also, in your opinion what is the correct proportion of wealth received to legitimate, valuable effort, and vision contributed? I’d love an answer that is an integer percentage, like “43%.”

Makes a change from rewarding the luck of being in the right place at the right time

A real man makes his own luck. Billy Zane. Titanic.
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