Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

What if AI made the world’s economic growth explode?

economist.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

111–120 of 199 posts

Re: What if AI made the world’s economic growth explode?

#111

Post by zanfr »

lossolo wrote: post #51
karim79 wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I suppose, if a huge proportion of workers get replaced by AI software, leading to mass unemployment, there will be impetus for governments to step in and force corporations to contribute to some sort of UBI or social wealth fund. If AI grabs everything and few consumers are left then it is zero-sum. I'm looking forward to seeing how this might play out. Pessimistically, it seems very bubblish.

> I suppose, if a huge proportion of workers get replaced by AI software, leading to mass unemployment, there will be impetus for governments to step in and force corporations to contribute to some sort of UBI or social wealth fund. I looked for any comments that expressed this sentiment, and as of writing this, I only found one. It's like people don't know or remember history. I mean, look at the French Revolution—l…

> What do these people think—that 99% of the population will just become beggars?

they will just become dead.

Re: What if AI made the world’s economic growth explode?

#112

Post by erikerikson »

danaris wrote: post #82
lossolo wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I suppose, if a huge proportion of workers get replaced by AI software, leading to mass unemployment, there will be impetus for governments to step in and force corporations to contribute to some sort of UBI or social wealth fund. I looked for any comments that expressed this sentiment, and as of writing this, I only found one. It's like people don't know or remember history. I mean, look at the French Revolution—l…

> a superintelligence that is smarter than any human and can continuously improve itself. At that stage, it will always allocate resources more efficiently than any individual or corporation. This kind of magical thinking still baffles me. This is sci-fi. There is absolutely zero evidence that such a thing is actually possible to create. Even if we stipulated that LLMs are AGIs, or can become them if we just cram in…

> Even if we stipulated that LLMs are AGIs, or can become them

>> (I mean real superintelligence, not chatbots)

Re: What if AI made the world’s economic growth explode?

#113

Post by insane_dreamer »

Will AI make the things that people actually __need__ -- healthy food (not the slop at Walmart), decent housing, affordable health care, affordable education, clean air, clean/healthy environments -- more accessible?

I don't see any major companies using AI for that -- they're focused on diversion and wealth extraction.

AI is just another layer of convenience and "wants" for those who have what they need already.

Sure, GDP might go up, but it doesn't mean a thing if people don't have what they _need_.

Re: What if AI made the world’s economic growth explode?

#114

Post by andrekandre »

tempodox wrote: post #17
coldtea wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Real growth has stalled for decades and is only propped up with rent-seeking and money printing credit - hence the results we see...

Yet the fairy tale that growth not only can continue indefinitely but continually accelerate has to be kept up. It's almost as though word “enough” has been banned from economy altogether.

  > It's almost as though word “enough” has been banned from economy altogether.
without growth people will start to notice all the wealth is accruing at the top; its hard to justify such a system if average people aren't getting better while working more and more

Re: What if AI made the world’s economic growth explode?

#115

Post by financetechbro »

mrbungie wrote: post #27
GolfPopper wrote: post #13

The idea that glorified chatbots are going to somehow bootstrap humanity to a Kardashev Type I civilization is sheer insanity.

Yep, we all know that MS Excel will get us at least 60% there. (50% joking).

I think now that we can run python in excel it may be even more likely

Re: What if AI made the world’s economic growth explode?

#116

Post by danaris »

erikerikson wrote: post #112
danaris wrote: post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> a superintelligence that is smarter than any human and can continuously improve itself. At that stage, it will always allocate resources more efficiently than any individual or corporation. This kind of magical thinking still baffles me. This is sci-fi. There is absolutely zero evidence that such a thing is actually possible to create. Even if we stipulated that LLMs are AGIs, or can become them if we just cram in…

> Even if we stipulated that LLMs are AGIs, or can become them >> (I mean real superintelligence, not chatbots)

Sure. Then you run even faster into the problem that this is not a real thing.

There is no AI that has consciousness. There is no AI that has human-level intelligence. We have no idea what it would take to build either of these things. Even if we were able to build either of these things, that does not automatically mean it is, or could ever become, superintelligent.

Your whole post is basically equivalent to saying "when the aliens come, and give us their technology, but enslave us all, capitalism will become irrelevant".

It feels truthy to say that we are close to the Singularity, but it's effectively a religious position. It has no basis in fact whatsoever.

Re: What if AI made the world’s economic growth explode?

#117

Post by gruez »

danaris wrote: post #79
whatshisface wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Efficiency improvements tend not to create more leisure time, because one person working eight hours a day remains more efficient than two people each working four hours a day. The reasons behind this are communication and training overheads. If AI leads to a world where people don't really have to know anything to do their jobs - just provide high-level judgements that LLMs seem farther away from than they are from…

> Efficiency improvements tend not to create more leisure time, because one person working eight hours a day remains more efficient than two people each working four hours a day. Efficiency improvements tend not to create more leisure time because the gains all go to the people at the top . Just like they have for 40 years.

>Just like they have for 40 years.

Taking that at face value, what happened before 40 years ago? There was unimaginable growth in per-person GDP, so people could have plausibly kicked back and relaxed rather than toiling in factories.

Re: What if AI made the world’s economic growth explode?

#118

Post by erikerikson »

danaris wrote: post #116
erikerikson wrote: post #112

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Even if we stipulated that LLMs are AGIs, or can become them >> (I mean real superintelligence, not chatbots)

Sure. Then you run even faster into the problem that this is not a real thing . There is no AI that has consciousness. There is no AI that has human-level intelligence. We have no idea what it would take to build either of these things. Even if we were able to build either of these things, that does not automatically mean it is, or could ever become, superintelligent. Your whole post is basically equivalent to saying…

I only quoted you and the grandparent. I've made no other comments here. You may have become confused. Taking some time and some breaths might be helpful.

Re: What if AI made the world’s economic growth explode?

#119

Post by bbuut »

gruez wrote: post #117
danaris wrote: post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Efficiency improvements tend not to create more leisure time, because one person working eight hours a day remains more efficient than two people each working four hours a day. Efficiency improvements tend not to create more leisure time because the gains all go to the people at the top . Just like they have for 40 years.

>Just like they have for 40 years. Taking that at face value, what happened before 40 years ago? There was unimaginable growth in per-person GDP, so people could have plausibly kicked back and relaxed rather than toiling in factories.

Well for one, no computers collating every persons value to the economy to buy and sell as and manipulate through targeted effort

Credit system didn’t exist, which conveniently grandfathered in all the Bloomberg, Trump, and other old money …obviously inheritance made them geniuses who deserved it

Basically Boomers came of age 40 years ago and needed something to do. So the 80-90 year olds of the day handed them all the power.

I mean come on. Do we really need to circumlocute the cause? Why the old rich people writing the rules and always winning is suspicious af still?

Re: What if AI made the world’s economic growth explode?

#120

Post by gruez »

pydry wrote: post #91
whatshisface wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Efficiency improvements tend not to create more leisure time, because one person working eight hours a day remains more efficient than two people each working four hours a day. The reasons behind this are communication and training overheads. If AI leads to a world where people don't really have to know anything to do their jobs - just provide high-level judgements that LLMs seem farther away from than they are from…

Efficiency improvements tend not to create more leisure time because the capacity for the economy to create "bullshit work" (e.g. work which is engaged in zero sum "wealth defense") is unbounded. For efficiency improvements to create more leisure time or even let the bottom 50% retire early, society would need to be radically restructured so that its locus of control is not capital. This would probably only happen wi…

>This might happen one day, but for now, efficiency improvements get capitalized into the ponzi-esque stock market

That's a seductive narrative, but not backed up by data. The share of GDP that goes to labor is has held relatively stable in the past few decades. It has admittedly fallen, but it's on the order of a few percentage points, whereas the GDP per capita more than tripled.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LABSHPUSA156NRUG

>while the efficiency gains which could be realized at the bottom of the pyramid get "burned off" via inflation targeting of 2%.

But inflation-adjusted wages isn't negative or even flat, it has grown?

Post reply on HN