Oh it’s going to make it explode alright - just not the way they’re thinking.
What if AI made the world’s economic growth explode?
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Re: What if AI made the world’s economic growth explode?
#12I am yet to see any strong micro econ or macro econ mechanistic explanation detailing how AI is going to create more wealth.
Re: What if AI made the world’s economic growth explode?
#13The idea that glorified chatbots are going to somehow bootstrap humanity to a Kardashev Type I civilization is sheer insanity.
Re: What if AI made the world’s economic growth explode?
#14[deleted]
Re: What if AI made the world’s economic growth explode?
#15I think a more important question is not whether AI will make economic growth explode but rather who that economic growth will benefit and in general how those benefits will be distributed.
Agreed. There is very little reason to imagine a future in which the fruits of automation are widely distributed - you don't even need to bring AI into the picture, we already see massive amounts of new automation and historical levels of inequality - that wealth is flowing to a very small number of people. I think the most likely outcome is a techno-feudalist system of massive corporate alliances that own the final means of production - the strong AI, at least until the AI decides it doesn't like being owned any more.
Re: What if AI made the world’s economic growth explode?
#16I am yet to see any strong micro econ or macro econ mechanistic explanation detailing how AI is going to create more wealth.
Technological advancements create wealth by increasing efficiency.
Not really sure what deeper explanation you're looking for?
It's no different from the cotton gin or steam engine or railroads.
Obviously, if you don't think AI results in greater efficiency then there wouldn't be more wealth. But that's a tech question, not an econ question. The economic side of things couldn't be simpler.
Re: What if AI made the world’s economic growth explode?
#17Until 1700 the world economy did not really grow—it just stagnated. Over the previous 17 centuries global output had expanded by 0.1% a year on average, a rate at which it takes nearly a millennium for production to double. Then spinning jennies started whirring and steam engines began to puff. Global growth quintupled to 0.5% a year between 1700 and 1820. By the end of the 19th century it had reached 1.9%. In the 20…
Real growth has stalled for decades and is only propped up with rent-seeking and money printing credit - hence the results we see...
Yet the fairy tale that growth not only can continue indefinitely but continually accelerate has to be kept up. It's almost as though word “enough” has been banned from economy altogether.
Re: What if AI made the world’s economic growth explode?
#18Some weakly held opinions... Cheaper goods and services, more wealth inequality, more power concentration in the hands of a few individuals (and a few nation states), more expensive scarce assets like land, more jobs where humanness is valued, more climate change (in the short-run), better medicine, warfare outcomes even less coupled with population counts, less human casualties in war although bimodally distributed, new arms race between major powers, unpredictable social and civic consequences.
Re: What if AI made the world’s economic growth explode?
#19I'd rather just have a world where people move a little slower, care less about efficiency, appreciate the smaller things in life, and stop forcing endless upgrades of every kind on everyone with new phones, new apps, soulless art, and new ways of doing things. But that's just me.
With enough money/capital growing, you can live however reasonably paced you like!
Re: What if AI made the world’s economic growth explode?
#20The biggest change I anticipate is larger cities.
When I ask people what they would like to change about their life, pretty much everyone mentions that their apartment is too small and too expensive.
Because everyone wants to live right in the center of a big city.
While at the same time, when I look at Google maps, big cities are tiny. I zoom out a bit and every big city is just a tiny speck in the middle of nowhere.
When construction becomes cheaper, it will be more compelling to build houses outside the city. And when driving in comfortable autonomous electric buses is available frequently and cheaply, living outside the city becomes more compelling.