What's the point of this article besides free propaganda? It seems to me like every other AI shop except for OpenAI and possibly Anthropic only gets mentioned once they actually release something.
OpenAI prepares to launch GPT-5 in August
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Re: OpenAI prepares to launch GPT-5 in August
#12If it were any good I would assume there would be no need to hype it up. My theory is that LLMs will get commoditized within the next year. The edge that OpenAI had over the competition is arguably lost. If the trend continues we will be looking at inference like commodity prices, where the most efficient like cerebras and groq will be the only ones actually making money at the end.
At the moment most of the dollars are coming from consumer, inclusive of business, subscriptions. That’s where the valuations are getting pegged and most API dollars are probably seen as experimental. The model quality matters but product experience is what is driving revenue. In that sense OpenAI is doing quite well.
If that is the case, the $300 billion question is whether someone can create a product experience that is as good as OpenAI’s.
In my mind there are really three dimensions they can differentiate on: cost, speed, and quality. Cost is hard because they’re already losing money. Speed is hard because differentiation would require better hardware (more capex).
For many tasks, perhaps even a majority right now, quality of free models is approaching good enough.
OpenAI could create models which are unambiguously more reliable than the competition, or ones which are able to answer questions no other model can. Neither of those has happened yet afaik.
Re: OpenAI prepares to launch GPT-5 in August
#13Earlier quoted context omitted.
At the moment most of the dollars are coming from consumer, inclusive of business, subscriptions. That’s where the valuations are getting pegged and most API dollars are probably seen as experimental. The model quality matters but product experience is what is driving revenue. In that sense OpenAI is doing quite well.
If that is the case, the $300 billion question is whether someone can create a product experience that is as good as OpenAI’s. In my mind there are really three dimensions they can differentiate on: cost, speed, and quality. Cost is hard because they’re already losing money. Speed is hard because differentiation would require better hardware (more capex). For many tasks, perhaps even a majority right now, quality of…
Competitors just need to wait for OpenAI to burn all their free money and dig themselves a debt hole they can’t easily climb out of, and then offer a similar experience at a price that barely breaks even or makes a tiny profit, and they win.
Re: OpenAI prepares to launch GPT-5 in August
#14> Altman decided to let GPT-5 take a stab at a question he didn’t understand. “I put it in the model, this is GPT-5, and it answered it perfectly,” Altman said. If he didn't understand the question how could he know the model answered it perfectly ?
It takes a really special kind of self-delusion to recognize that you don't understand the question and also think you are qualified to evaluate the answer.
Re: OpenAI prepares to launch GPT-5 in August
#15> Altman decided to let GPT-5 take a stab at a question he didn’t understand. “I put it in the model, this is GPT-5, and it answered it perfectly,” Altman said. If he didn't understand the question how could he know the model answered it perfectly ?
Pay close attention to these demos. Often the AI is ok but not amazing, but because it’s shaped like the right thing they don’t look any deeper.
It makes selling improvements fairly hard actually. If the last model already wrote an amazing poem about hot dogs, the English language doesn’t have superlatives to handle what the next model creates.
Re: OpenAI prepares to launch GPT-5 in August
#16They can call it whatever they want…not sure that has a great deal of meaning unless there’s a GPT-4/Claude 3.5 level step change.
Meh. The models are already quite useful. If the improvement is half of what the jump to GPT-4 was, it will be a big deal.
Agree on the usefulness of models. They still require a lot of babysitting for software development. We’re seeing marginal improvements, but the aggregate utility still adds up over time. Am just skeptical of OpenAI at this point for most things.
Re: OpenAI prepares to launch GPT-5 in August
#17What's the point of this article besides free propaganda? It seems to me like every other AI shop except for OpenAI and possibly Anthropic only gets mentioned once they actually release something.
That was my thought, except the author even mentioned they couldn’t even get a comment from OpenAI for their “article”. Can’t beat free advertising.
Re: OpenAI prepares to launch GPT-5 in August
#18> Altman decided to let GPT-5 take a stab at a question he didn’t understand. “I put it in the model, this is GPT-5, and it answered it perfectly,” Altman said. If he didn't understand the question how could he know the model answered it perfectly ?
This statement is definitely just marketing hype, but if we're being pedantic there are tons of questions that are hard to answer but have easy to verify solutions, e.g. all NP-complete problems.
Re: OpenAI prepares to launch GPT-5 in August
#19If it were any good I would assume there would be no need to hype it up. My theory is that LLMs will get commoditized within the next year. The edge that OpenAI had over the competition is arguably lost. If the trend continues we will be looking at inference like commodity prices, where the most efficient like cerebras and groq will be the only ones actually making money at the end.
> If it were any good I would assume there would be no need to hype it up.
Yes, this is why apple famously just dumped the original iphone on the market without telling anybody about it ahead of time.
Re: OpenAI prepares to launch GPT-5 in August
#20> Altman decided to let GPT-5 take a stab at a question he didn’t understand. “I put it in the model, this is GPT-5, and it answered it perfectly,” Altman said. If he didn't understand the question how could he know the model answered it perfectly ?
Pay close attention to these demos. Often the AI is ok but not amazing, but because it’s shaped like the right thing they don’t look any deeper. It makes selling improvements fairly hard actually. If the last model already wrote an amazing poem about hot dogs, the English language doesn’t have superlatives to handle what the next model creates.
usually less perfect is a better sign of integrity