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OpenAI prepares to launch GPT-5 in August

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Re: OpenAI prepares to launch GPT-5 in August

#5
If it were any good I would assume there would be no need to hype it up.

My theory is that LLMs will get commoditized within the next year. The edge that OpenAI had over the competition is arguably lost. If the trend continues we will be looking at inference like commodity prices, where the most efficient like cerebras and groq will be the only ones actually making money at the end.

Re: OpenAI prepares to launch GPT-5 in August

#7

If it were any good I would assume there would be no need to hype it up. My theory is that LLMs will get commoditized within the next year. The edge that OpenAI had over the competition is arguably lost. If the trend continues we will be looking at inference like commodity prices, where the most efficient like cerebras and groq will be the only ones actually making money at the end.

At the moment most of the dollars are coming from consumer, inclusive of business, subscriptions. That’s where the valuations are getting pegged and most API dollars are probably seen as experimental. The model quality matters but product experience is what is driving revenue. In that sense OpenAI is doing quite well.

Re: OpenAI prepares to launch GPT-5 in August

#8

They can call it whatever they want…not sure that has a great deal of meaning unless there’s a GPT-4/Claude 3.5 level step change.

Meh. The models are already quite useful. If the improvement is half of what the jump to GPT-4 was, it will be a big deal.

Re: OpenAI prepares to launch GPT-5 in August

#9

If it were any good I would assume there would be no need to hype it up. My theory is that LLMs will get commoditized within the next year. The edge that OpenAI had over the competition is arguably lost. If the trend continues we will be looking at inference like commodity prices, where the most efficient like cerebras and groq will be the only ones actually making money at the end.

The fact that xAI only exists for Elon Musk's personal spite and they produced a top performing model certainly implies that model training isn't any kind of moat. It's certainly very expensive but not mysterious.
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