The funny thing is Claude 4.0 isn't even that 'smart' from a raw intelligence perspective compared to the other flagship models. They've just done the work to tailor it specifically for proper tool using during coding. Once other models catch up, they will not be able to be so stingy on limits. Google has the advantage here given they're running on their own silicon; can optimize for it; and have nearly unlimited cas…
Even if Moore's law was still in effect and the computer resources required stayed the same and compute stayed as efficient per watt (neither is true), it would just halve compute costs every 18 months. You're able to read about people hitting $4000 costs/month on the $200 plan upthread. That's 8 years until it's cost effective. Are they really ready to burn money for 8 years?
Amazon operated at a loss for 9 years, and barely turned a profit for over a decade longer than that. They're now one of the greatest businesses of all time.
Spotify operated at a loss for 17 years until becoming profitable. Tesla operated at a loss for 17 years before turning a profit. Palantir operated at a loss for 20 years before turning a profit.
And this was before the real age of Big Tech. Google has more cashflows they can burn than any of these companies ever raised, combined.